On October 24, 2025, on-chain analyst Ai Yi detected the news that Arthur Hayes had liquidated his holdings of altcoin assets all at once, dropping a huge stone in an already weakening market: at that time, the U.S. stock market was in a downtrend, and the crypto market was simultaneously under pressure. This veteran trader, long tracked by the market and regarded as a "smart money sample," chose to go risk-off at this moment, soon interpreted by the community as an early vote on the subsequent volatility. After liquidating, Ai Yi monitored the price curve, which almost immediately provided feedback—ENA fell from $0.196 to $0.169, a decline of 13.77%; ETHFI dropped from $0.6499 to $0.5727, a decline of 11.87%; according to PANews citing Ai Yi's data, ETH also retreated from about $2375 to $2257, losing nearly 5%. These specific numbers became the coordinates of this round of emotional stampede. Meanwhile, on another front, leading exchanges were quietly making opposite moves: in the context where some asset withdrawals had previously been suspended, Foresight News reported that Binance announced via tweet that starting at 12:00 on November 3, 2025, it would gradually resume withdrawal functions for some assets on networks such as BSC, ETH, SOL, XRP, TRON, Arbitrum, Optimism, TRX, and Base, emphasizing that the functions would only be gradually released after completing safety and readiness checks. This extremely restrained "unblocking" aimed to hedge against the panic amplified by the combination of whale liquidations and restricted withdrawals, prompting the market to start questioning a bigger dilemma: between Hayes' liquidation and Binance's unblocking, who exactly was leading the confidence expectations in this round of market movement?
Hayes Liquidation: ENA and ETHFI Instantly Lost Ground
On October 24, on-chain analyst Ai Yi captured the action of Arthur Hayes clearing out his altcoin positions while tracking changes in specific addresses, which was quickly amplified by media such as Odaily Planet Daily and PANews. Since Hayes has long been tagged as a "top trader" in the crypto world, this on-chain record was soon interpreted as a well-prepared risk-off move: as the U.S. stock market was declining, dragging down the crypto market, he chose to withdraw from the highest risk end, causing speculation about whether he "knew something."
What was more eye-catching was the timing and the price dropped closely together. Ai Yi monitored that shortly after this liquidation, ENA slid from $0.196 to $0.169 with a decline of 13.77%; ETHFI fell from $0.6499 to $0.5727, declining 11.87%, and reports indicated that ETH also retraced between $2375 and $2257, a decrease of about 4.96%. Market sentiment instinctively pieced together this set of numbers as a case of "precise top-ticking," contrasting later-following investors with the "smart money" that got off the bus early. However, what can be confirmed from the research standpoint is only the timing of the on-chain operation and the subsequent price correction. Without disclosing a complete list of assets, and with no public profit data existing, any speculation about "how much Hayes earned, or whether there was insider knowledge" exceeds the bounds of fact. We can only admit that this was a correlation magnified by macro corrections, rather than a causal proof that can be easily concluded.
U.S. Stocks Dragging Down Crypto: The Escape Before the Crash
Stretching the timeline a bit further, October 24 was not just a lone large on-chain transfer, but rather embedded in the middle of a whole round of risk asset corrections. The research brief clearly indicated that the U.S. stock market was in a declining phase that day, with sentiment and liquidity under pressure, which in turn hammered the crypto market, providing a macro background for the subsequent price corrections involving ENA, ETHFI, and ETH. It was precisely near this macro curve's inflection point that Ai Yi detected Arthur Hayes liquidating his altcoin assets, with timings highly overlapping with the subsequent weakening of the broader market, thus being discussed within the narrative framework of "smart money getting off early."
From a price performance perspective, mainstream assets and altcoins did not diverge during the same period but rather moved downward together: according to PANews citing Ai Yi's data, the ETH price fell from around $2375 to $2257, a drop close to 5%; within a short time, ENA fell from $0.196 to $0.169, and ETHFI dropped from $0.6499 to $0.5727, both recording double-digit declines, forming a typical combination of "top assets pulling back with the market, and altcoins being heavily sold." In such a scenario, Hayes' liquidation appeared more as a proactive pricing of systemic risk that followed the downward pressure from U.S. stocks knocking down the crypto market, rather than magically triggering a local disaster. It should be emphasized that, aside from the "U.S. stock market decline dragging crypto down" background, the research brief did not list any more specific triggering factors. We can only understand this escape and the subsequent correction within the known macro chain, and cannot rewrite a more dramatic yet factually detached version of the details surrounding this market round.
Withdrawal Gate Half Open: Binance Cautiously Resumes Multichain
If Hayes' liquidation can be seen as an individual's early vote on systemic risk, then on the other side, the largest infrastructure in the market is also quietly carrying out shock-absorbing operations. The research brief only provides a framework fact: before this round of volatility, Binance had already suspended the withdrawal function for certain assets, but did not disclose exactly when it began, why it occurred, or which assets and how much were involved, leaving the market with only the cold description of "withdrawals restricted." For crypto traders, who highly depend on liquidity, once the withdrawal gate tightens, the realm of imagination often becomes more terrifying than known information.
A turning point occurred at noon on November 3, 2025. According to Foresight News, Binance announced via tweet that starting at 12:00 that day, it would gradually resume withdrawals for some assets across multiple networks: BSC, ETH, SOL, XRP, TRON, Arbitrum, Optimism, TRX, Base, etc., all included in the list. However, this was not an outright lifting of restrictions. The announcement deliberately layered several limiting terms—"phased," "some assets," and "gradually released after completing safety and readiness checks," emphasizing that not all assets would reopen for withdrawals at the same time. Externally, this was a "recovery" announcement, but internally it resembled an operational resilience testing plan: first breaking down the links, illuminating batches according to networks and assets, inserting additional safety and readiness checks between each step, using time to exchange for certainty. The signals interpreted by the market were dual: on one hand, the withdrawal functions were emerging from suspension, indicating that the exchange's technology and operations were being repaired after the storm; on the other hand, Binance preferred to endure the pressure of "only restoring part" to maintain this controllable rhythm, placing safety checks ahead of efficiency. In this battle for confidence, Binance chose a slow yet verifiable technical recovery process to address the collective questioning of the market about whether "safety still exists."
Smart Money Runs First or Exchanges Repair First
On the timeline, two completely different rhythms intersect on the same curve. On October 24, on-chain analyst Ai Yi detected Arthur Hayes liquidating his altcoin assets while the U.S. stock market was in a downtrend, bringing down the crypto market as well. Subsequently, ENA dropped from $0.196 to $0.169, and ETHFI fell from $0.6499 to $0.5727, with the market instinctively linking this round of correction to "Hayes getting off first," treating his action as a sample of a top trader's foresight on risk. About ten days later, according to Foresight News, Binance began gradually resuming withdrawals for some assets across multiple networks, including BSC, ETH, SOL, XRP, TRON, Arbitrum, Optimism, TRX, Base, emphasizing that it would gradually open after completing security checks, and not all assets would resume simultaneously. This deliberately slowed repair rhythm and Hayes' decisive liquidation formed a sharp contrast within the same market.
Ordinary investors read two entirely different risk signals between these two actions: the whale liquidation was primarily interpreted as price risk—if even the long-tracked "smart money" chose to actively go risk-off before the downturn, many would view this as a redesign of the altcoin buying confidence ceiling; whereas the previous withdrawal suspension and subsequent rhythmic unblocking were viewed more as a scale measuring counterparty and liquidity risk. Under the structure where centralized exchanges serve as the main liquidity hub, any withdrawal restrictions would amplify bearish interpretations, while restoring withdrawals would be seen as alleviating risks, but the pace of recovery—“slow or fast” and “complete or partial”—would continue to be parsed into nuanced emotional factors. The whale's reduced holdings weakened the willingness to absorb at the upper levels, while the exchange controlled the pace on the lower end, influencing the speed of fund inflow and outflow. These dual signals compounded in the already fragile altcoin market, evolving into a confidence game about "whether to follow Hayes" and "whether to trust Binance's recovery,” with altcoin prices bearing the entire amplification effect of this game.
Understanding the Next Cycle from This Confidence Battle
Looking back at 2026, that "liquidation meets unblocking" provided only two types of forward-looking signals: one type related to whales like Arthur Hayes, who were closely monitored by the entire network, choosing to eliminate altcoin positions on October 24, 2025, during the U.S. stock market's decline and the crypto market's weakening, with ENA falling from $0.196 to $0.169, ETHFI from $0.6499 to $0.5727. Reports indicated that ETH also retraced from $2375 to $2257. This early withdrawal was categorized by research briefs as "foresight risk judgment of top traders"; the other type referred to leading platforms like Binance, which chose to phase in resuming withdrawals starting at 12:00 on November 3, according to networks and assets, emphasizing that functions would gradually reopen after completing safety and readiness checks. This rhythm control was summarized as a narrative of "exchange operational resilience." Standing on a longer timeline, this round of volatility revealed the same thing: when the U.S. market corrections and withdrawal storms hit simultaneously, how fragile the crypto market's prices and sentiments are, with a few on-chain liquidations and a platform announcement sufficient to amplify panic; but it also proved another side: as withdrawal functions resumed as planned across multiple networks and liquidity began to flow again, prices would eventually find new equilibrium after severe fluctuations. By 2026, these events were already historical cases written into briefs, serving only as material for post-analysis and risk education: in the next cycle, the risk-off actions of whales will still be placed under a microscope, and the pace of exchanges reopening withdrawals and security checks will continue to be interpreted as sentiment barometers. However, what we can take away from this "confidence battle" is not a specific price target or timetable, but a script—at the moment when macro shocks coincide with operational storms, whoever can distinguish the inflection points of risk and recovery between these two clues more quickly is more likely to still be standing at the table after the next severe fluctuations.
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