The day's fluctuation maintained between 77462 and 78388, with a range of less than a thousand points, which reflects the calm period after intense volatility. All the method points have been explained, and even the trend has been discussed too thoroughly; emphasizing excessive profits is also very uninteresting. Today’s article aims to answer some recent, frequently asked questions. First, regarding the exchange rate, since the progress of the compliance process began, Lao Cui has hardly mentioned the exchange rate; due to domestic withdrawals coupled with the alignment of the cryptocurrency sector with stablecoins, this directly led to the U.S. dollar being tied to cryptocurrencies, and the impact of the exchange rate has also sharply declined. Only users involved in foreign trade will pay more attention to this; the reference significance of the crypto market is no longer substantial, unless it is for foreign trade settlements. The concentration of stablecoin redemption may cause some fluctuations in the crypto market, while during other time periods, it can be ignored. In markets linked to the exchange rate, one can only observe the application of CNY, and currently, there is no domestic capital in the crypto market.

The second problem is the issue of risk control in contracts. Many friends have very precise points of concern; on almost every day when an opposite market trend appears, Lao Cui did not publish any posts, and even reminders from the previous day were very timely. To respond to everyone using the most recent example, for instance, on the day of the interest rate meeting results announcement, no one could predict the day’s market. A significant adjustment had taken place earlier, and during the Asian trading hours that day, it not only recovered above the 80000 mark but even reached a high of 81800. This kind of market that lures traders is definitely very easy to judge; this point has been mentioned by Lao Cui a week prior, suggesting a different trend could emerge. However, what cannot be predicted is the high point; Lao Cui certainly could not foresee that 81800 would be the day’s new high. Even if it broke through to 85000 that day, Lao Cui himself would consider it an extremely normal fluctuation. The impact of no interest rate hike in October on capital? The underlying data, which Lao Cui cannot foresee, will pose great risks; only once the news emerges can the direction of the fluctuations be determined, and any actions taken prior to that are merely gambling. The most taboo thing in contracts is to gamble on a wave. By dropping this mindset, everyone may have different outcomes, trending towards stability.

The third question concerns the situation of the midterm elections and the interest rate meeting in December, will there be favorable news? The probability of Trump failing in the midterm elections and the probability of interest rate hikes in December, based on the data Lao Cui currently possesses, is nearly maintained at over 70%. The data from the midterm elections will soon be available; it is challenging to provide an account of Trump’s economic situation over the past two years to the public, especially during election-related market fluctuations; Lao Cui even somewhat doubts whether there is a Democratic shadow behind this wave of market movement, as the timeline is too coincidental. There is no possibility for any doubts regarding interest rate hikes; there isn’t even an excuse to counter the lack of a hike; Japan, Canada, Europe, and even some small countries have already raised interest rates, paving the way for America's interest rate hike. The price of crude oil, U.S. Treasury yields, the collapse of the U.S. stock market, the collapse of gold, and inflation data all indicate that problems have emerged. Lao Cui has already shared trends; believing or not depends on everyone’s own judgment.

Lao Cui summarizes: Today’s explanation is more like a definition of a trend, strengthening everyone’s understanding of the bearish market. In the short term, Bitcoin seems to be steadying at the 78000 mark, and I would also casually mention other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and SOL. The key point for Ethereum is clearer, which is the recently broken 2300; SOL has not even reached the 100 mark, with a strong resistance at 96 maintaining a solid balance. In the short term, this can be considered a recovery, although the strength is not particularly strong. Even if Bitcoin breaks up another 1000 to surpass 79000, it doesn’t change the short-term trend, merely paving the way for the midterm elections. After the results of the midterm election news surface, these positions will definitely be lost. Although the emergence of such news this year is unlikely to result in new lows, a new low will surely appear in the first half of next year. After that point, there will be no larger negative remarks causing Bitcoin to set new lows. Spot users can wait a bit longer; it is just a matter of time. Contract users must focus on midline trading; the midline is only a week’s timeframe, and shorts will yield returns. If anyone has specific questions, feel free to ask Lao Cui directly. Lao Cui will also post recent situations in his WeChat moments today.

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