Academician of the Cryptocurrency Circle: Every time Bitcoin (BTC) drops dramatically, I see the same script being played out

Let me babble a few words to start. Many people privately ask me if the bottom has been reached, and to be honest, if I knew, I would have taken a huge risk. In trading, there is no holy grail, only probabilities. You see this surge from 57000 to 87000, an increase of almost 30000 points; is it strange to pull back 10000 points now? Not strange at all. In a bull market, a 20% drop is a normal fluctuation, not to mention this has only dropped by 11%. Conversely, don’t just jump to "buy the dip" at every turn; the bottom is established, not guessed. Set a stop loss, test the waters with a small position, and let the market tell you the answer. By the way, all the above are personal trading notes and do not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so use money you can afford to lose.

The daily candlestick chart has pulled back about 11% from the high of 87385. On the moving average system, the price has fallen below the EMA15, EMA30, and EMA60 short to mid-term moving averages, and is currently stuck around EMA90 at approximately 78222, which is crucial to hold. Looking further down, EMA120 is at 76992, which is the lifeline of this upward trend; as long as it doesn’t effectively break down, the overall structure is still intact. Regarding MACD, the DIF and DEA are both operating below the zero axis; although the green bars are narrowing, the bearish pattern hasn't changed. The lower Bollinger Band is at 77214, and the price is currently moving along the lower band, which indicates a weak range of fluctuations in the short term.

Pay attention to a few details in the four-hour candlestick chart: First, the TD9 reversal signal, which is a borderline signal to watch for short-term traders; second, the MACD's DIF has crossed above the DEA, and the red bars are starting to expand, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is diminishing; third, the price has just returned above EMA15 at 77888, but the EMA30 above is at 78603, forming the first resistance, and further up, EMA60 is stacked at around 79543. The middle Bollinger Band at 78012 is precisely the current price level, which is a dividing line between bullish and bearish. If it holds, it will continue to rebound; if it doesn't hold, it will need to return to test the previous low.

Short-term reference:

If going up from 77500 to 77000 encounters resistance, stop loss at 500 points, target 78000 to 80000

If going down from 79500 to 80000 stagnates, stop loss at 500 points, target 78500 to 77500

Specific operations should be based on real-time market data. For more details, feel free to contact the author. The article may be published with a delay and is for reference only, with risks to be borne by yourself.

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