Cryptocurrency Expert: 10.31 Bitcoin (BTC) Spikes, Whipsaw, Panic Selling: This round of decline has replayed retail investor psychology

From the historical high of 97932 to the yearly low of 57758, Bitcoin has gone through a complete large range, and is now at a critical point for directional choice. Technical analysis can tell you probabilities, but it cannot tell you destiny. Before entering any trade, first ask yourself: Where is the stop loss? How much will I lose? Can I sleep? If you cannot answer these three questions, do not act yet. This article is merely a personal chart review and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; please make independent decisions based on your own risk tolerance.

The daily K-line shows a short upper shadow, indicating that the bears are still actively pushing. In the moving average system, prices have consecutively fallen below the EMA15, 30, 60, and 90, and the only support currently is the EMA120, which is the pivot point for the mid-term bull-bear market. The green bars of MACD are still extending, indicating an acceleration phase within the bearish trend, with no signs of any bottom divergence. The lower boundary is at 78203, and the price has effectively broken below the lower boundary; it is oversold in the short term, but oversold does not equate to a bottom. Conclusion: The daily level is still in a bearish arrangement, and a rebound does not change the weak structure.

The four-hour K-line shows a weak rebound after consecutive bearish days, which is not a reversal. All moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, with EMA15 at 79275 pressing down from above, nearly 2000 points away from the current price, meaning any rebound will hit a wall first. The TD sequence has reached 5; according to DeMark counting, it usually needs to go down a few more bars to easily form a short-term low, but this is just a probability, not a law. The MACD continues to open below the zero line, with green bars not significantly narrowing. The lower boundary is at 77263; today, it reached a low of 76600, piercing the lower boundary but later recovering, indicating that there is buying support around 76600, but the strength of this support needs to be confirmed by the next K-line.

Short-term reference:

Northbound 77000 to 76500 faces resistance, stop loss 500 points, target at 78000 to 80000

Southbound 79500 to 80000 experiencing stagnation, stop loss 500 points, target at 78500 to 77500

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