On one side is the assistance fund continuously buying HYPE, and on the other side is the parent company of Kraken preparing to enter the regulated derivatives market in the United States. Hyperliquid is trying to prove that its value does not only come from the on-chain trading heat.
As of October 28, on-chain tracking data shows that the Hyperliquid assistance fund bought about 63 million USD worth of HYPE in the past 30 days, with a historical cumulative purchase amount of about 1.39 billion USD. Meanwhile, Payward, the parent company of Kraken, plans to leverage Hyperliquid's infrastructure to expand its related derivatives business, providing new growth expectations for the market.
These two clues point to the same question: Can Hyperliquid convert the current trading activity into more sustainable token demand and new business revenue?
63 million USD bought in 30 days, where does the demand for HYPE come from?
Unlike short-term hot spots that rely on market sentiment, one important observation indicator for HYPE is the connection between protocol trading activity and token purchases.
Hyperliquid's core business revolves around on-chain perpetual contract trading. According to its existing mechanism, a portion of protocol revenue will enter the assistance fund and be used to purchase HYPE. The more active the trading activity, the stronger the support for protocol revenue, and the related purchase scale may also change accordingly.
As of October 28, the assistance fund bought approximately 63 million USD worth of HYPE in the past 30 days, with a cumulative purchase amount of about 1.39 billion USD. This means that when evaluating HYPE, in addition to price and trading volume, investors can also observe protocol revenue and the actual purchase situation of the assistance fund.
However, it is important to distinguish that buyback does not equal destruction, nor does it guarantee the price. Tokens purchased by the fund do not automatically exit circulation permanently, as market sell-offs, supply changes, and adjustments in derivative positions may still affect the price.
Therefore, the more significant meaning of the 63 million USD is that it provides a sustainably trackable demand indicator rather than a commitment to HYPE’s future price increase.
Kraken parent company's entry, Hyperliquid welcomes new business imagination
On October 26, Hyperliquid announced that Payward, the parent company of Kraken, plans to use its HIP-3 permission control mechanism to expand its related business in the regulated derivatives market in the United States.
According to the disclosed cooperation plan, Bitnomial, a subsidiary of Payward, plans to deploy and operate an on-chain perpetual contract market, responsible for related market management, clearing, and settlement; NinjaTrader Clearing plans to accommodate customer accounts. Trading will use Hyperliquid's on-chain order book, but specific launch still depends on regulatory approval.
The highlight of this cooperation is not just the addition of a partner, but the chance for Hyperliquid's trading infrastructure to serve a broader financial market.
If the product is approved for launch and generates real trading volume, Hyperliquid has the opportunity to gain new trading demand and expand the application scope of its on-chain derivatives infrastructure. For HYPE, this could become a growth path beyond current business.
However, there are still several key links between the cooperation plan and token value: regulatory approval, official launch time, trading volume formation, and whether related business truly brings sustainable protocol revenue. The cooperation news enhances growth expectations but cannot be directly seen as realized new income.
The uniqueness of HYPE: mutual influence of fundamentals and leveraged trading
HYPE draws attention also because it is in a trading environment that is highly sensitive to changes in capital.
On one hand, protocol revenue, assistance fund purchases, and new business progress provide investors with a basis to observe the fundamentals; on the other hand, perpetual contract trading and leveraged positions on Hyperliquid may amplify short-term market sentiment.
When prices rise rapidly, short liquidations may drive market momentum further; when prices fall, concentrated long liquidations may also trigger a chain reaction. Therefore, even if there is no significant change in the protocol's fundamentals, HYPE may still experience violent fluctuations due to changes in position concentration.
Large account on-chain behaviors are also worth noting, but transfers, un-staking, and actual selling are not the same thing. Simply transferring tokens to a trading platform by whales does not directly indicate that they are selling.
This means that HYPE's short-term trend depends not only on positive news but also on whether the market has already factored in these expectations and whether leveraged positions are excessively concentrated.
In the next phase, three signals are more important than price fluctuations
Moving forward, there are three directions for HYPE that are worth continuous tracking.
First, can the assistance fund's purchases be maintained? If the buyback scale remains resilient alongside protocol revenue, it indicates that existing business is still providing demand support; if trading activity cools down and purchases weaken simultaneously, this logic needs to be reassessed.
Second, can the Payward partnership transition from planning to actual trading? Regulatory approval, official launch times, and post-launch trading volumes can explain the actual value of this business better than a simple cooperation announcement.
Third, is there excessive position concentration in the derivatives market? Open interest, funding rates, and long-short liquidation situations can help assess whether short-term volatility risks are accumulating.
Currently, the focal point for HYPE is the simultaneous existence of protocol buying mechanisms and potential business expansions. However, both of these logics still require data verification: the former depends on whether the existing business can continue to generate income, while the latter depends on whether the new market can truly be realized.
The 63 million USD buyback provides clues to demand, and the cooperation with Kraken unlocks growth expectations; ultimately, it still depends on whether revenue, trading volume, and token economic activities can form a positive cycle. For HYPE, what is truly worth observing is not how much positive news has appeared, but whether sustainable business growth can remain after the positive news is realized.
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