In the past three days, three wallets believed to be potentially interconnected on-chain transferred approximately 482,228 SOL, equivalent to about 49.17 million USD at the time, of which about 171,430 SOL (approximately 17.3 million USD) has already been deposited to exchanges. Such short-term large transfers and deposit actions to exchanges are generally regarded as potential precursor actions for sell-offs based on historical experience. However, the true ownership of these addresses, whether they belong to the same whale, and whether any sales have occurred in the market remain unverified by publicly available data. During the same time frame, the U.S. SOL spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of approximately 8.2287 million USD on a certain trading day, indicating that some funds allocated to Solana through the ETF chose to reduce their holdings, while the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) saw a contrary net inflow of approximately 817,700 USD on the same day, with a cumulative historical net inflow of about 43.8823 million USD. This reflects a divergence in attitudes toward Solana among different products and investor groups. It is essential to emphasize that the aforementioned on-chain transfers and capital flows come from a single publicly available data source, which may have inconsistent statistical criteria. It remains to be seen whether the whale has completed large-scale sales and whether ETF redemptions will evolve into a sustained trend. Under the dual signals of on-chain deposits and net outflows from ETFs, whether the short-term selling pressure on Solana is amplified becomes a key issue for the market to closely monitor.
Three wallets transferred 480,000 SOL to exchanges in three days
According to publicly monitored on-chain data, in the past three days, three wallets believed to be controlled by a single whale collectively transferred approximately 482,228 SOL, equivalent to about 49.17 million USD based on disclosed prices. According to AiCoin data, approximately 171,430 SOL was explicitly labeled as deposited to exchange addresses, corresponding to a value of about 1.73 million USD. The remaining approximately 310,000 SOL can only be confirmed as having been withdrawn from the original wallet, but there is no public information indicating that all have flowed into exchanges or their subsequent uses. This means that, from a static on-chain perspective, it can be confirmed that the whale is reducing its holdings in the original wallet and pushing about one-third of its positions directly toward exchanges, which are potential selling arenas.
From a market sentiment perspective, the concentration of about 170,000 SOL deposited to exchanges is often interpreted as a signal of "preparation for unloading." However, it is essential to emphasize that the on-chain records currently only capture the deposit action, with no public data proving that these tokens have already been matched for sale in the market, nor can we infer their selling rhythm and actual transaction prices. Similarly, the true ownership and source of these three wallets have not been disclosed, making it impossible to simply categorize them as systematic reduction actions by a particular institution or single large holder. Therefore, for the approximately 49 million USD scale of concentrated transfers, a more cautious approach is to view it as a potential source of selling pressure rather than a confirmed selling event. In the coming days, whether these deposited tokens continue to flow out of exchange addresses or remain will be a key observation point for determining whether the short-term supply pressure on Solana has truly been released.
ETF net outflow of 8.22 million USD indicates collective withdrawal
Almost simultaneously with the concentrated transfers by the whale, according to SoSoValue data, the U.S. SOL spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of approximately 8.2287 million USD on a certain trading day, indicating that the redemption scale for that day was significantly greater than the subscription scale, with some institutions or qualified investors choosing to reduce their holdings in ETF products linked to Solana. Combining this with the previously mentioned on-chain capital movement of about 49 million USD, the combination of "on-chain capital entering exchanges + funds flowing out of off-exchange products" during this time window has amplified the market's sensitivity to short-term supply pressure, although there is currently no evidence indicating a direct causal relationship between the two.
From a signal perspective, this single-day net outflow more reflects a marginal weakening of institutional participation enthusiasm and short-term expectations: on one hand, the redemption behavior indicates that some funds have chosen to lock in earlier profits or reduce exposure to Solana; on the other hand, as the current materials have not disclosed the specific subscription and redemption details of each SOL spot ETF, nor have they broken down the behavioral characteristics of different types of investors, it is unclear whether individual products have experienced concentrated withdrawals or if there is a broader "collective reduction." At the same time, the current data comes from a single public source, so the statistical criteria may differ from those of other platforms. Therefore, a more prudent approach is to view this approximately 8.23 million USD net outflow as a short-term cautious signal rather than a confirmed long-term trend reversal, where the continuation of net outflows from SOL spot ETFs in the coming days will directly impact market interpretations of institutional marginal behavior.
MSOL records a contrary net inflow of 817,700 USD to increase Solana holdings
During the same time window in which the U.S. SOL spot ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately 8.2287 million USD, Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) recorded a net inflow of approximately 817,700 USD (according to a single source), which stands out particularly against a backdrop of overall cautious funding. From an absolute scale perspective, this amount cannot fully offset the redemptions at the ETF level, but the directional "contrary" is sufficient to indicate that not all products aimed at institutions and qualified investors are synchronized in their reductions. According to the same source data, MSOL has accumulated a historical total net inflow of approximately 43.8823 million USD since its establishment, and it remains in a net subscription state, indicating that at least at the dimension of this product, incremental funds participating in Solana's medium- to long-term allocation have not reversed into systematic redemptions.
It is essential to emphasize that as a trust product aimed at institutions and high-net-worth clients, MSOL's investor structure, geographical distribution, and holding periods have not been disclosed in the public materials, making it currently possible to infer preferences only from the net inflow scale and direction. The fact that MSOL had subscriptions even on the day when ETFs faced net outflows may reflect a divergence in time perspectives and product preferences among different institutions regarding Solana's risk returns: some are reducing short-term exposure through ETFs, while others are smoothing their accumulation pace through trust products, leaning more towards medium- to long-term holding. This differentiated layout implies that while the market digests potential selling pressures from whales and signals of ETF redemptions, it must also recognize that some institutions choose to increase their holdings in Solana at the same time, viewing it as a medium- to long-term asset allocation target capable of withstanding short-term fluctuations.
Observation points for Solana after the resonance of whales and ETFs
Summarizing the current on-chain addresses and product funding information, it can be said that Solana is facing a situation of "increased short-term selling pressure expectations + significant divergence in institutional views": on one side are three suspected related wallets that have cumulatively transferred about 482,228 SOL in the past three days, of which approximately 171,430 SOL have already been deposited to exchanges, combined with the net outflow of approximately 8.2287 million USD from the U.S. SOL spot ETF on a certain day, which has formed a slightly negative supply resonance in timing; on the other side, Morgan Stanley Solana Trust (MSOL) recorded a net inflow of approximately 817,700 USD on the same day, with a historical total net inflow of approximately 43.8823 million USD, showing that some institutions are still choosing to increase their positions during the same window. It is crucial to emphasize that on-chain monitoring currently can only confirm that whale addresses have deposited some SOL to exchanges, without being able to directly track whether they have already sold or re-transferred; simultaneously, the publicly disclosed ETF data only provide a snapshot of one day's net outflow, without offering longer-term subscription and redemption sequences, making it difficult to definitively conclude that a trend reversal has occurred. Therefore, the key observation points in the coming days will be to track whether these several whale addresses and their related addresses continue to concentrate deposits to exchanges and whether there are obvious outflows or returns, and to pay attention to whether the U.S. SOL spot ETF and MSOL continue their current divergence in subscriptions and redemptions. Only when the large-scale on-chain token actions and product funding flows consistently align over time can there be a clearer judgment on whether this round of signals is merely a short-term fluctuation or a structural shift in the Solana narrative.
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