Cryptocurrency Scholar: On October 26, Bitcoin (BTC) is pressed down by five mountains yet cannot fall, what is that invisible hand doing behind the scenes

Today, a fan privately messaged me, saying he put his rent money into trading, asking if it could double. I saw it and didn't reply directly. It’s not indifference; I’m genuinely afraid. The most ruthless aspect of this market isn’t misreading the direction, but using the wrong money. Leverage, contracts, all-in trading—touch any of these and you've already lost half. I write these analyses daily not to have you follow my trades, but to make you pause for 30 seconds before placing an order: if this trade loses, will I be able to sleep? If not, then don’t trade.

The daily candlestick is in a high position and consolidating on low volume. The current price is 80750, stuck above EMA60, with EMA15 at 82017 and EMA30 at 82016 below, showing that bulls and bears have been in a tug of war at the psychological level of 80,000 for a week. The MACD red bars are starting to shorten, and the DIF is still above the DEA, indicating that bullish momentum is waning but not dead. BOLL middle track at 82335, lower track at 80006, price is running close to the lower track. The TD count has turned down to 4; the daily level still roughly has 5 candlestick adjustment periods to complete.

The four-hour candlestick structure is clear: the price at 80736 has fallen below EMA15 at 80904, EMA30 at 81733, EMA60 at 81770, EMA90 at 82052, and EMA120 at 82182, forming a complete bearish arrangement of five moving averages, which is the worst short-term shape. But note two details: first, the MACD green bars continue to converge, and the DIF is about to cross above the DEA, showing early signs of bullish divergence; second, BOLL lower track at 79960 and daily lower track at 80006 are forming a resonance support. The TD count down is only at 2, this four-hour level retracement has only gone halfway, and after the next wave of probing lows, opportunities can be sought for an upward move. The short-term trading thoughts are as follows:

Short-term Reference:

For upward movement from 80100 to 79600 facing resistance, stop loss at 500 points, target looking at 80800 to 81500.

For downward movement from 81500 to 82000 stagnating, stop loss at 500 points, target looking at 80500 to 79500.

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