Academician of the Coin Circle: On October 26, Ethereum (ETH) four moving averages are pressing down, is the second one going to reenact the script of a halving?

To say something unpleasant, 90% of the people in this market are here to give away money. Why? Because they treat feelings as strategies and unwillingness as faith. I write this not to show off how great I am, but because I have experienced liquidation, held positions, and lost sleep over it. Knowing that kind of pain is why I repeatedly talk to you about stop-loss, position size, and not chasing positions. The K-line won't lie; it's your own desires that deceive you. Tonight's analysis will not discuss feelings, only positions and risks.

The daily K-line is basically a doji. The key is to look at the moving averages: the current price has fallen below four moving averages, with only the EMA120 at 2336 supporting it underneath. This means the medium-term trend has weakened; bulls have dropped from the 2806 high, with every rebound being pushed back by the moving averages. In terms of MACD, the green bars are still expanding, indicating that the downward momentum hasn't fully released. The BOLL lower limit at 2299 is the next line of defense; if it breaks 2299, it will test previous lows. Currently, the daily K-level is dominated by bears, and any rebound is just giving bears an opportunity to add positions.

The four-hour K-line structure looks slightly better than the daily K. Now at 2357, it is stuck between the lower limit of 2317 and the middle line of 2371. EMA15 at 2363 is right above, and EMA30 at 2368 is also pressing down, indicating the short-term rebound has arrived at a dense area of moving averages. The good news is that MACD green bars are narrowing, with DIF and DEA about to converge into a golden cross, and the downward momentum is decreasing. The bad news is that EMA60 at 2411 and EMA90 at 2438 are lined up downwards; the medium-term moving averages have not changed their bearish arrangement. TD Nine Turns is currently at 2, without signaling yet. The four-hour chart is just a short-term oversold rebound, not a reversal; if it cannot get past the middle line at 2371, the rebound will end.

Short-term reference:

For northward positions from 2280 to 2240, stop loss at 30 points, target at 2320 to 2380.

For southward positions from 2370 to 2400, stop loss at 30 points, target at 2320 to 2270.

Specific operations should be based on real-time market data. For more details, you can consult the author; there may be delays in article publication, so it is recommended for reference only, risk is to be borne by oneself.

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