Sun Yuchen's long conversation with Jin Ming focused not on "what he is bearish about," but rather on how he divides positions, how he prices risk, and how he adjusts in the context of collective action and macro changes. Newbies should copy these disciplines instead of just replicating his specific buying and selling points. Currently, BTC is around $84,000, down about one-third from last year's peak; ETH is near $2,500; U.S. Treasury yields are about 5%, oil prices are high due to geopolitical factors, and AI hardware valuations are crowded. Below, I will clarify the actionable parts.

1】First, clearly separate core positions from offensive positions and write down adjustment rules

His approach is clear: BTC is the core position, which has not been reduced after a year of decline; ETH is the offensive position, which has been reduced by 80-90% in the $3,600-$4,000 range, with no buyback to this day, and funds have been redirected to U.S. stocks; Nvidia serves as his AI core position, similar to the role of BTC.

A common mistake among newbies is treating all positions as offensive and fully investing whenever a narrative appears good. The correct approach is to first set ratios and then establish strict rules.

• Core position (suggested total capital 20%-40%): Bitcoin, Nasdaq broad-based or similar long-term core assets. Only consider reducing when the entire narrative completely collapses.
• Offensive position (remaining portion): Can be significantly adjusted based on valuation, fundamentals, or technical risks.
• Flexible position (cash or stablecoin, suggested not less than 20%-30%): Specifically for adding positions or switching during a pullback.

Operational template: Use a table to record the "entry reasoning, stop-loss/reduction conditions, target proportion" for each position. For example, if the offensive position ETH falls more than 30% from your cost and there are no new catalysts in the fundamentals, reduce it below the target proportion; the core position BTC should not be reduced unless there are systemic cryptographic threats and the community has no response. This way, even if one judgment is wrong, the overall account drawdown remains manageable.

2】Incorporate technical risk into position limits in advance, rather than clearing out of emotion

He clearly mentioned that AI algorithms and quantum computing (Q-Day) may threaten existing cryptography, and the market has underestimated the selling pressure risk from dormant BTC being hacked. Quantum resistance upgrades can only protect those willing to migrate, and achieving consensus on hard forks freezing old coins is challenging under a decentralized system. However, he transferred BTC to cold wallets, without reducing the core position, and continues to observe the situation.

Newbies can do the following:

• Set a hard limit on single asset core positions (e.g., no more than 25% of total capital).
• Prioritize security with cold wallets and diversified storage, avoiding putting the entire core position in one address.
• Check once a quarter: Is there any substantial progress in quantum resistance solutions, and have exchanges and mainstream wallets started migrating? If the risk changes from "long-term" to "within 12-18 months may affect," consider reducing the core position ratio, rather than clearing it all at once.
• Do not panic sell the core position near the current price simply because of "quantum threats," but also do not completely ignore it. Hedging with position limits and safety measures is steadier than hedging with emotions.

3】Actively reduce positions during capital crowding, prioritizing application layers over the most expensive hardware

He has a mildly bearish outlook on the Nasdaq mid-term, primarily due to severe capital crowding, with hardware being treated as software, and any issues in the AI refinancing cycle may trigger a chain reaction; a chip surplus cannot be ruled out in the short term, similar to the fiber excess of 2000. He is most optimistic about AI applications, especially in health management (data collection → mining → decision-making, without waiting to get sick to go to the hospital), and least optimistic about overly centralized storage and optical modules. He also provided a practical anchor: the market cap ceiling of a single company is unlikely to exceed half the size of U.S. Treasury holdings, so the potential for top hardware to multiply several times is limited, while the application layer is more likely to present larger multiple opportunities, with themes diverging in the next year or two.

Actionable steps:

• The proportion of popular sectors (currently the most crowded AI hardware) in the offensive position should not exceed half.
• Prioritize applications with real users, real revenue, and that can directly solve specific problems, rather than just looking at market cap and narratives.
• Use his anchor point for simple valuation checks: If a stock's market cap is already approaching "half of the macro reference," reduce the position and redirect funds toward more diversified applications.
• Specific monitoring: Check the sector's capital concentration weekly (the proportion of a few leading stocks in the sector's trading volume or market cap). When concentration continues to rise, actively tilt the offensive position toward the application layer or cash.

4】Treat the macro as the parent level, equity as the child level, and force holding cash when interest rates are high

He emphasized that U.S. Treasuries are the "parent level" of all funds, while equity is the "child level." When interest rates are high, funds will flow from overvalued stocks and crypto to risk-free assets; when they reach a certain level, funds will flow back. The RMB will strengthen, and the U.S. Treasury crisis is overly worried— as long as the U.S. still holds control over AI (chips, storage, models), Treasuries will not lack buyers.

Rules for newbies to execute:

• Check the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield weekly or monthly. If it remains above 5%, and equity/crypto valuations are high, allocate over 50% of new funds to cash or short-term bonds instead of immediately committing them to the offensive position.
• Set a rebalancing trigger line: When the cash ratio in the account falls below 15%, stop adding new risk positions; when the cash ratio exceeds 40% and there is a significant pullback, gradually add to the core or offensive positions.
• Do not overlook the attractiveness of current cash just because you are "bullish on AI or crypto long-term." High-interest rates themselves serve as a risk warning and a form of ammunition reserve.

5】Actively embrace new trends, and set limits on "old-style" assets

He essentially has no positions in A-shares but studies directions that can connect U.S. AI demand and have manufacturing layouts (such as optical modules). He does not hold optimistic views on all traditional assets (such as liquor), and actively embraces new types of assets. He is also optimistic about RWA and U.S. stock chain (the logic promoted by Tron's November is similar to USDT, providing more people an entry point to allocate dollar assets) and new product spaces like Hyperliquid.

Newbie actions:

• Classify assets based on "whether productivity is improving": AI applications, asset chaining, and more efficient trading infrastructure are considered new directions; traditional consumption relying solely on branding and channels is considered old directions. The proportion of old directions in the offensive position should not exceed 20%, and new directions can be higher, but each still subject to the total proportion limit of the offensive position.
• There is no need to hit specific projects; just allocate part of the offensive position into broad-based or diversified combinations that align with these trends.

6】A practical checklist for newbies (to be done quarterly)

• Are the proportions of core and offensive positions still within the preset range? If exceeded, rebalance.
• Are the security measures for the core position (cold wallets, diversification) in place?
• Has the concentration in popular sectors increased? If so, proactively reduce positions.
• Are the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and cash ratio matched to the current risk levels?
• Are there real applications in the offensive position, rather than just narratives remaining?
• Write down the maximum acceptable drawdown for the account if a misjudgment occurs this quarter, then retroactively adjust positions.

The most valuable takeaway from the interview is not whether to be specifically bearish or bullish, but rather how he divides positions, writes risks into rules, and dares to adjust amid collective action and macro changes. Write the above points into your own table, and practice with small funds for three months is more important than chasing any single hot topic.

If you want to implement the above position disciplines into real trading, you can register an account on Huobi HTX with a small amount of funds, managing positions separately for core and offensive, first getting the rules running before gradually expanding.

AiCoin exclusive Huobi registration link:

https://jump.do/zh-Hans/xlink-proxy?id=4

Invitation code:aicoin168
 

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到[email protected]，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。