On October 21, 2026, the SpaceX third-quarter earnings call began with a "spectacular" atmosphere. According to data disclosed from a single source, the company's total revenue for the quarter reached $14.58 billion, a staggering 161% year-on-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $12.8 billion. The net profit was $4.4 billion, with earnings per share of $0.35, both of which exceeded market estimates of $1.88 billion and $0.15, respectively. More significantly, the revenue structure marked a turning point: revenue from AI business amounted to $7.56 billion, exceeding the space business's $1.77 billion and accounting for more than half of total revenue, all set against a backdrop of approximately $19.59 billion in high capital expenditure, indicating that SpaceX's focus is shifting from launch and constellation towards a complex narrative centered around AI. Subsequently, Musk stated during the call that Tesla and SpaceX had separately established special committees to discuss potential mergers; he personally believed it to be a "good idea," but emphasized that no agreements had yet been reached. According to an unverified Telegram message, a prediction market has priced the probability of a merger between the two companies before early 2027 at over 50%. On one hand, there is optimistic betting supported by a single source, while on the other, there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the merger process and capital structure trends, leading to a clear market divergence in expectations.
$14.58 Billion Revenue Shatters Expectations: SpaceX Earnings Report
According to a single source, SpaceX’s third-quarter performance rewrote market assumptions: total revenue of $14.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 161%, far above the $12.8 billion expected by analysts. Based on this, net profit was raised to $4.4 billion, more than twice the market estimate of $1.88 billion, with earnings per share at $0.35, also far exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.15. The figures themselves are impressive, but what’s critical is the underlying business structure—AI business revenue reportedly reached $7.56 billion, which compared to the space business's $1.77 billion not only exceeds the latter but also occupies more than half of total revenue, significantly surpassing the $1.43 billion market expectation for the space segment. All this data currently comes from a single source and has yet to be verified through multiple channels.
What truly astonished the external audience was that such profitability was achieved during a high-intensity investment period. According to the same source, SpaceX's capital expenditure for the quarter was approximately $19.59 billion, essentially "burning cash" to build future capacity and technical moats yet still achieving far beyond expected profit and EPS for the season. This signifies that the company has found a rare balance between expansion and profitability. Because all key financial figures are based on the reports from a single media or platform, any subsequent discussions regarding valuation, merger prospects, or even a "space + AI" narrative must be undertaken cautiously under this uncertain premise.
AI Revenue Surpasses Space Business: Valuation Narrative Rewritten
According to financial reports cited by a single source, SpaceX's total revenue this quarter was $14.58 billion, with AI business contributing $7.56 billion, far exceeding the market estimate of $6.3 billion, while traditional space business was only $1.77 billion. Even though it slightly exceeded the expectation of $1.43 billion, it has been relegated to a supporting role in terms of volume. AI revenue not only first secured more than half of total revenue but also became the absolute mainstay driving performance in terms of incremental growth and exceeding expectations. This structural pivot effectively transforms SpaceX's narrative from "selling rockets and launch services" to "a space + AI complex mastering Starlink networks and computing infrastructure."
Under this new framework, it is difficult for the market to apply the traditional aerospace company valuation template to SpaceX: as profitability and growth expectations primarily stem from AI computing, while rockets and space business are increasingly viewed as the "heavy asset front end" providing physical entry and moat for the AI network, the company resembles an integrated infrastructure platform, rather than a single transportation provider. This narrative rewrite naturally extends to Tesla — the latter's layouts in autonomous driving, robotics, and self-developed AI models could have potential synergies with SpaceX’s computing resources and space network. All future discussions about whether the two companies should merge will inevitably circle around the core judgment of composite value of "space + AI."
Merger Committee Emerges: Musk Signals Capital
During this third-quarter earnings call, according to a single source, Musk almost dropped a second bombshell at the climax of the "spectacular" performance — he revealed that Tesla and SpaceX had both formed special committees to discuss "possible merger matters." He added, as per a single source from CNBC: "I think it’s a good idea, but it really depends on the special committees of both companies." The subtle difference in tone is crucial: the first part reflects his personal preference, while the second part pushes the final decision-making authority back to the corporate governance framework, deliberately widening the gap between "under discussion" and "already decided to merge."
From a procedural perspective, "special committees" are often interpreted as a standard starter for potential major transactions—usually composed of relatively independent directors responsible for assessing whether the merger aligns with the interests of the company and shareholders. However, in this disclosure, key details are almost entirely absent: who the committee members are, when it was formed, expected review timelines, and what evaluation criteria will be adopted are all "undisclosed." As of now, there have been no official announcements regarding agreements reached on the merger, established timelines, or regulatory approvals. Research briefs explicitly prohibit the interpretation of "formation of a committee for discussion" as "merger set in stone." This starkly contrasts with the optimistic betting in the Telegram message that a certain prediction market has priced the probability of the two companies merging before early 2027 at over 50%. Looking back from this moment, the earnings call did release a strong capital signal, yet it has not formed a deal that can be modeled. What truly determines the fortunes of the two companies will be subsequent information that can be repeatedly verified, not the limited snippets from that evening’s earnings call.
Prediction Market Bets on Merger: The Meaning of 50% Probability
According to a single Telegram report, a certain prediction market has bet that the probability of Tesla and SpaceX completing a merger before early 2027 is over 50%; however, the report did not disclose the platform's name, sample size, or pricing mechanism. This data itself is characterized by "lack of information" and has not been confirmed by other sources, thus can only be viewed as a market rumor requiring a bold question mark, rather than an authoritative probability to be included in research models. In other words, this "50%+" is not internal information leaked from the boards of the two companies, but a subjective pricing by a group of traders using real cash based on future narratives.
The tension is precisely here: the public statements at the company level remain at "both parties have formed special committees for discussion" and "no agreements have yet been reached," which is very cautious; however, the prediction market has already provided an optimistic odds that is almost "flipping a coin heads up." The expected gap will quickly transmit to the secondary market—tech stock investors see a Musk asset map that may be completely rewritten, while the crypto circles surrounding the narrative of "Musk system" and "AI + space" are likely to ignite emotions with such high probability bets, amplifying short-term fads and imaginative space. However, in the absence of verifiable formal information, this optimism driven by prediction markets is more like a collective bet on future merger stories, rather than a reliable gauge of real progress.
Tesla + SpaceX: The Suspense of Space and AI Alliance
From a business puzzle perspective, Tesla tells a story about autonomous driving, robotics, and large-scale AI model training, while SpaceX is doubling down on space infrastructure and AI computing—according to a single source, its AI revenue reached $7.56 billion this quarter, far exceeding the $1.77 billion from the space business, with AI becoming the main growth engine. If these two narratives are placed on the same balance sheet, what the outside world imagines is "vehicles + robots" as ground terminals and "space networks + computing clusters" forming the foundation for global data and model distribution—a "space + AI alliance" around the Musk system indeed presents significant synergy in technical pathways.
The real challenge lies at the level of capital and governance. According to a single source, SpaceX's capital expenditure this quarter was approximately $19.59 billion, still in a high-intensity investment phase, and any form of merger must consider its ongoing funding needs and independent financing logic, with how to integrate this with Tesla, which emphasizes market capitalization narratives, shareholder expectations, and existing corporate governance frameworks, cannot be resolved merely by stating "good idea." More critically, research briefs repeatedly emphasize that the composition of the special committee members and the review rhythm have not been disclosed, and all specific future business layouts, valuation premiums, and even transaction structures after a potential merger currently remain at a qualitative discussion stage regarding opportunities and suspense. The market bets on the "space + AI alliance" are still pricing a highly uncertain future under incomplete information.
Performance and Merger Suspense: What to Watch Next
At this current point in time, according to the third-quarter figures reported from a single source—$14.58 billion revenue with a year-on-year increase of 161%, net profit of $4.4 billion, EPS of $0.35 all surpassing market expectations, along with AI business revenue of $7.56 billion far exceeding the space business's $1.77 billion, combined with nearly $20 billion in capital expenditure—provides a relatively certain performance anchor for SpaceX’s profitability and expansion pace. In stark contrast, however, is the uncertainty at the capital level: Tesla and SpaceX have only established special committees to discuss potential mergers based on Musk’s premise of it being a "good idea," with Musk explicitly emphasizing that it all depends on the committees, and currently, no agreements have been reached. This means all details regarding equity structure, valuation reconstruction, and governance frameworks remain in the discussion stage. More complex is the Telegram message stating that a certain prediction market has priced the merger probability before early 2027 at over 50%, which is merely a single-source estimate that has not been cross-verified, not a formal commitment from any company or regulatory agency. The incremental information that can be closely tracked next lies more in a "to be observed" checklist: first, how upcoming earnings reports further dissect AI and space business performance, confirming whether the current revenue structure is sustainable; second, whether the special committees of the two companies release any official updates, especially whether they enter substantial plan evaluations; third, whether regulatory agencies begin to manifest their preliminary attitudes towards such cross-industry mergers. In the absence of these key details being publicly disclosed, whether for technology stocks or on-chain asset traders, a crucial premise must be continuously remembered: the performance data and merger news cited in this piece are all from a single source, and currently can only discuss "possibilities" and "paths," without considering any narrative as established fact, and with careful participation in all risk pricing around Musk’s system and the "space + AI" stories based on the distinction between the two.
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