Revenue is expected to grow by 60%, but the market may not only focus on the good news.

SpaceX will release its third-quarter financial report after the close of the U.S. stock market on October 20. Wall Street estimates that the company's revenue for this quarter will be approximately $12.7 billion to $12.9 billion, and earnings per share are also expected to turn from loss to profit compared to the previous quarter. Specific predictions will vary based on data platforms and statistical standards.

For investors, what truly matters is whether the AI business can meet growth expectations, and when the ongoing infrastructure investments will translate into more stable profits.

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1. Revenue expectations significantly raised, the threshold for financial reports has also increased

First, let’s look at the results from the previous quarter.

SpaceX's revenue in the second quarter was approximately $7.81 billion, exceeding the market's previous expectations of about $6.8 billion to $6.9 billion; earnings per share had a loss of about $0.09, which was also better than analysts originally predicted.
This report obviously surpassed market expectations and prompted analysts to raise their forecasts for the third quarter.

Currently, the market expects SpaceX's revenue for the third quarter to be around $12.7 billion to $12.9 billion, an increase of approximately 60% compared to the second quarter. Some analysts predict earnings per share to be between $0.13 and $0.16, which means the company is expected to achieve a positive earnings per share for the quarter.

However, predicting profits does not equal ultimately achieving positive net profits, which will depend on the profit metrics and calculation standards disclosed in the official financial report.

The difficulty with this financial report is that the market has already set very high growth expectations. Even if revenue continues to grow, if profits, cash investments, or subsequent guidance fail to meet expectations, the stock price may not rise accordingly.

2. What key points to watch in the financial report? Three areas are worth closely monitoring

1. AI Computing Power: Fast Growth, but the Return on Investment is Most Challenging

The AI business is one of the most anticipated parts of this financial report.

According to market predictions, SpaceX's AI business revenue in the third quarter could reach approximately $6 billion to $6.3 billion, significantly up from about $2.6 billion in the second quarter.

This indicates that the market's vision of SpaceX is no longer limited to rocket launches and satellite internet. AI computing power, data centers, and other businesses are also becoming important components of the company's growth expectations.

But revenue growth is just the first step.

AI infrastructure requires continuous large amounts of investment. The market is more interested in knowing: Can the new computing power smoothly translate into revenue? Has the profit margin for related businesses improved? Will future investments continue to increase significantly?

If revenue grows while costs and capital expenditures keep rising, the speed at which profits improve may be lower than market expectations.

2. Starlink: Can it continue to provide stable income?

Starlink is another important business line for SpaceX.

The satellite internet service can continuously generate revenue through user subscriptions, which has a stronger recurring income attribute compared to one-off launch tasks.

In the second quarter, SpaceX’s connection business revenue increased by about 66% year over year. In the third quarter, the market will continue to focus on user scale, revenue growth, and business profit margins.

There are two details worth observing:

• Has user growth slowed? Can the increase in user numbers continue to drive revenue growth?
• Can revenue growth translate into profits? If user growth comes with high network construction and operating costs, an increase in revenue does not necessarily mean profits will improve simultaneously.

If the AI business is responsible for opening up new growth spaces, whether Starlink can maintain stable revenue and profit performance will also affect the market's assessment of SpaceX's long-term operational capabilities.

3. Capital Expenditures: After Spending Money, When Will Returns Come?

Rapid expansion depends on funding input.

The market expects SpaceX's capital expenditures in the third quarter to approach $19 billion, mainly involving AI infrastructure projects. This figure remains an estimate and will be finalized based on the company's disclosures.

High investment is not necessarily a bad thing. For companies in an expansion phase, investing in infrastructure early may be intended to capture future markets.

What needs to be truly cautious is if investment growth consistently outpaces revenue and profit growth over the long term.

After the financial report is released, in addition to revenue and earnings per share, there should also be significant attention on management's statements regarding future capital expenditures, AI business profitability, and annual revenue targets.

If revenue exceeds expectations, and profits improve along with clearer return on investment, the market is more likely to believe that this round of growth can be sustained. However, if revenue shines but spending continues to expand, and the profit pathway remains unclear, stock prices may also come under pressure.

3. Does exceeding expectations in financial results mean the stock price will rise?

Not necessarily. Three situations are worth paying close attention to:

Situation 1: Both revenue and profits exceed expectations.

If the AI business grows robustly and profit performance is better than market expectations, combined with management providing relatively positive future outlooks, the stock price may find support.

Situation 2: Revenue is good, but investments continue to exceed expectations.

In this case, the market may start to question the cost of growth. Even if revenue hits new highs, it does not mean that the stock price will necessarily rise.

Situation 3: Performance meets expectations, but future guidance is weak.

Stock prices are traded on the future. If the market has already factored in high growth, and management's outlook on future revenue, profits, or capital expenditures is not sufficiently positive, there may also be situations where “good news releases lead to price declines.”

Therefore, watching financial reports cannot just focus on one number. Revenue, profit, costs, and future guidance need to be assessed together.

4. If you want to participate in financial report season, you can pay attention to OKX Star Activity

If you usually pay attention to U.S. stock financial reports, you can also learn about the OKX Star's “Financial Report Big Winner” activity.

The event is set up as a win streak challenge for financial report predictions: participate in predictions related to the financial report season, advance by answering correctly, and be eliminated by answering incorrectly or missing answers; the final winner can receive 10,000 USDT.​​​​​​​

According to the event schedule, the registration deadline for the win streak challenge is October 20 at 23:59 (UTC+8). If you wish to participate, it is recommended to visit OKX to check the event rules, supported regions, and specific participation conditions.

Furthermore, by posting content with the topic #OKXUSStockEarningsSeason, retweeting, and sharing a financial report discussion post, you can also participate in the weekly lottery, where 10 users will be selected each week, with a reward of xStocks tokens valued at 100 USDT. Specific qualifications and rules will be subject to the OKX event page.

Users who do not have an OKX account can register first and complete account setup, then enter OKX to view financial report discussions and event details.

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In Conclusion

With this financial report, the market is focused not only on whether revenue can reach $12.9 billion but also whether the growth of the AI business can gradually translate into profits and when the significant investments can yield returns.

For beginners who are just starting to look at financial reports, a simple method to remember is: first look at the gap between actual performance and market expectations, then look at profit and costs, and finally look at management's outlook for the next quarter.

This is far more valuable than simply judging the direction of the stock price based on a piece of good news.

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Risk Warning: This article is for market information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Pre-market gains do not represent the trends after the official opening, and financial report performance may differ from market expectations. Stocks and digital asset-related products carry risks, and predicting activity outcomes is uncertain. Please read the OKX official event rules carefully and participate rationally.

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