J.P. Morgan Asset Management has just made a symbolic move in the 31st edition of the "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for 2027": According to a chart shared by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan on October 20, 2026, Bitcoin has for the first time been listed as a separate asset class and formally included in this long-term assumptions framework, which is viewed as the "annual asset allocation textbook" for the traditional asset management industry. More importantly, J.P. Morgan provided clear numbers — an expected compound annual return for Bitcoin of about 10% over the next decade and an expected annual volatility of about 55%. This return assumption is higher than that of large-cap U.S. stocks by about 7.5% and gold by about 5.5%, making it the asset with the highest expected return in the report, while gold's expected volatility is around 17.2%, in stark contrast to Bitcoin. The conventional notion of J.P. Morgan labeling it as "high volatility, high risk" is becoming misaligned with reality: Grayscale Research shows that Bitcoin achieved an annualized volatility of about 43% over the past year, lower than its 10-year average of 64% and 81% five years ago; as of October 6, 2026, Bitcoin's volatility was even lower than the approximately 19% of the S&P 500 constituents, indicating that its risk profile is beginning to be comparable to that of some traditional blue-chip stocks. On another funding-side signal, according to Trader T statistics, on a certain day, Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $103.28 million, while Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of about $526.6 million, described as the day with the largest difference in redemptions between ETH and BTC since November 11, 2025. As crucial compliance products for institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market, the contrasting redemptions of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs are reinforcing Wall Street's preference for "which crypto assets are worth long-term allocation." At the intersection of these timelines, as J.P. Morgan provides the highest expected return for Bitcoin in its complete sample, it still maintains a relatively conservative high-volatility assumption. The question is no longer whether Bitcoin should enter institutional asset allocation tables, but how its risk attributes and investment value will be redefined, and whether this reassessment can continually drive Wall Street's attitude towards crypto assets from cyclical probing to structural acceptance.
J.P. Morgan Turns the Page: Bitcoin Enters Long-Term Allocation Ledger
In the traditional asset management industry, the "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions" is the "long-term asset allocation draft" that J.P. Morgan Asset Management delivers annually to global pension funds, sovereign funds, and family offices, with the 31st edition directly pointing to long-term return and risk assumptions starting from 2027. In the past, Bitcoin was often placed in appendices related to tactical trading, thematic products, or risk warnings; now it appears for the first time as an independent asset class in this flagship research, included in strategic allocation discussions alongside large-cap U.S. stocks and gold. This positional shift itself represents a change in attitude: it is no longer just a marginal experiment but is now viewed as a permanent asset that requires serious planning of its weight and role.
In this new framework, Bitcoin is assigned an expected annualized return of about 10%, higher than the expected compound yield of about 7.5% for large-cap U.S. stocks and also higher than the expected return of about 5.5% for gold, marked as "the highest return" among all assets covered by the model. However, J.P. Morgan does not downplay the risk assumptions — Bitcoin's expected annualized volatility is still as high as about 55%, far exceeding the expected volatility of gold at about 17.2%. This combination implies that, in the eyes of mainstream institutions, Bitcoin is primarily viewed as a high-return, high-volatility offensive allocation rather than a defensive asset used for hedging cycles or smoothing net worth. Its inclusion in the long-term allocation ledger signifies that qualification issues have been resolved; the next question is how much aggressive risk institutions are willing to allocate to this asset with "10% return, 55% volatility."
High Return Pricing Meets Volatility Cooling: Risk Labels Begin to Misalign
According to Grayscale Research data, Bitcoin achieved an annualized volatility of about 43% over the past year, a level that is significantly lower than its past ten-year average of 64% and far below the historical high volatility phase of 81% five years ago. While volatility is gradually converging each year, as of October 6, 2026, Bitcoin's volatility has already fallen below about 19% of the S&P 500 constituents, indicating that when compared with traditional blue-chip stocks, it is no longer the "outlier" always standing outside the extreme range. However, in J.P. Morgan's Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions model, Bitcoin is still assigned an expected volatility of about 55%, higher than the 43% it has achieved over the past year, forming a stark contrast to gold's expected volatility of about 17.2%. The gap between the risk label and actual performance is beginning to emerge.
This misalignment is not surprising. For large asset management firms, long-term assumptions often resemble a "conservative memory curve," where models tend to prefer retaining the shadows of several years of old data rather than eagerly rewriting risk parameters in response to one or two years of volatility decreases. Sensitivity to regulatory environments, concerns over tail risks, and the still-developing understanding of new asset classes may cause them to deliberately lag in parameter adjustments. In the short term, this means that even when providing an approximate 10% highest expected return, Bitcoin will still be compressed into a relatively limited weight range in many asset allocation models due to the high volatility assumption of 55%; however, if data in the coming years continues to demonstrate that volatility remains low, the delayed parameter adjustments by institutions will likely generate a two-fold effect: one is the passive elevation of the configurable proportion under risk budgets, and the other is that under more realistic volatility assumptions, the same 10% return will be reinterpreted as a more attractive risk premium.
ETF Redemption Divide: Institutions Choosing Sides Between Ethereum and Bitcoin
When J.P. Morgan positions Bitcoin as "the asset with the highest expected return" in its long-term model, a visible divide also appears at the level of compliant products. According to Trader T statistics, on a certain undisclosed trading day, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $103.28 million, while the Bitcoin spot ETF realized a net inflow of about $526.6 million, described as the day with the largest redemption difference between the two since November 11, 2025. For institutions accustomed to managing positions via ETFs, this comparison almost serves as a straightforward "vote on the side": one side features Ethereum products that continue to cash out, while the other side showcases Bitcoin products with increasing purchases, corresponding to simultaneous adjustments in custodial wallets and on-chain holdings.
More critically, this set of extreme redemption data combined with J.P. Morgan's report on the 10% long-term return assumption forms a picture of mutual resonance: the research department raises the expected yield for Bitcoin in the model, while the trading and asset allocation teams tilt towards Bitcoin at the product level through ETF redemptions. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs are compliant tools available for institutional use, and their capital inflow and outflow serve as important windows to observe traditional capital preferences. However, the current differences in redemptions on that day come from a single statistical source and lack longer time series and multi-source cross-validation, making it more suitable as an accumulating observation signal rather than a definitive conclusion.
Position in the Portfolio: Bitcoin Moves from Speculative Corner to Offensive Chip
From the perspective of asset allocation, when Bitcoin is written into strategic frameworks like the Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, it is first labeled with "factor attributes" in the model. J.P. Morgan's expected annual return of about 10% and expected volatility of about 55% clearly place it in the "high risk, high return" category; on the same chart, large-cap U.S. stocks have only about 7.5% expected return, and gold about 5.5%, with gold's expected volatility even lower at about 17.2%. In this reference frame, Bitcoin is no longer an excluded speculative outlier but resembles a "offensive chip" that can exchange extremely limited positions for portfolio yield elasticity, supported by compliant tools like ETFs and embedded between traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and gold.
What supports this role transformation is not merely narrative but rather a change in risk profile. Grayscale Research data shows that Bitcoin's annualized volatility has decreased to about 43% over the past year, significantly lower than its past ten-year average of about 64% and approximately 81% five years ago; by October 6, 2026, its volatility had dropped below that of about 19% of the S&P 500 constituents, indicating that Bitcoin's "risk label" is no longer absolutely extreme compared to some blue-chip stocks. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's position within traditional multi-asset portfolios is still in the early stages of reassessment. J.P. Morgan is merely the first to provide quantitative coordinates in its long-term assumptions; whether more large asset management firms will incorporate Bitcoin into similar frameworks and adjust their expectations for returns and volatility will ultimately determine whether this offensive chip can truly take root within mainstream asset class portfolios and will require time and more institutional decisions to answer.
The Story is Not Over: The Next Act in Bitcoin’s Transition to "New Asset Level"
J.P. Morgan's decision to list Bitcoin as a separate asset class in its "Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for 2027," providing an expected return of about 10% and an expected volatility of about 55%, acknowledges its highest return among the covered assets while still constraining it with "high volatility," marking a crucial starting point for the re-evaluation of Bitcoin within the traditional asset management framework. Concurrently, there is another clue presented by Grayscale Research and the comparative data with S&P 500 constituents: Bitcoin's annualized volatility has decreased to around 43% over the past year, significantly lower than its ten-year average of 64% and 81% five years ago; by October 6, 2026, it even fell below the approximately 19% volatility of S&P blue-chip constituents, indicating that its risk profile is starting to approach some traditional assets. When combined with Trader T's statistics on certain day ETF redemption data—where Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $103.28 million and Bitcoin ETFs a net inflow of about $526.6 million, marked as the day with the largest redemption difference between the two since November 11, 2025—the preference differences on the funding product side provide quantifiable institutional behavioral footnotes for this narrative. Currently, large asset management institutions still tend to categorize Bitcoin as falling into the "high risk, high return" corner, but whether J.P. Morgan's proactive assignment of coordinates in its long-term assumptions, or the gradual changes in volatility data and ETF redemptions, will continue to challenge this old label remains to be seen. The next variables worth watching will be whether more heavyweight asset managers include Bitcoin in their long-term capital market assumptions, whether they further lower their model assumptions for its volatility, and how the redemption and performance differences between ETH and BTC in the spot ETF products will converge or diverge, as these paths will ultimately determine whether Bitcoin can truly transition from "special target" to "new asset level."
Join our community and let's discuss and grow stronger together!
AiCoin exclusive Hyperliquid benefit: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
AiCoin exclusive Aster benefit: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
On-chain Telegram community: https://t.me/AiCoinWhaleData
On-chain community: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g
AiCoin on-chain Twitter: https://x.com/aicoinwhaledata
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到[email protected]，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
