According to BiyaPay data, the most notable signal in the US stock market last week was the differentiation in index performance.

The Dow rose slightly, the S&P retreated, while the Nasdaq and small-cap stocks saw deeper declines. As inflation data rebounded, the market began to question how much investment is needed for AI computing power construction, who bears the financing costs, and when revenues will cover capital expenditures.

Hong Kong stocks saw little overall change during the week, with technology stocks relatively weak; Bitcoin fluctuated around $81,000. This week, China has released its third-quarter economic data, and companies like Meta, Tesla, and Netflix will successively announce their earnings reports. The market will be faced with tests on earnings, inflation, and financing costs.

Last Week Review: Dow Rises, Tech Stocks and Small Caps Retreat

As of the close on October 16, the S&P 500 index was at 7659.44 points, down about 1.9% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite was at 26140.03 points, down about 4.5%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 52002.41 points, up about 0.7%; the Russell 2000 index fell about 3.0%. The Nasdaq had its worst weekly performance since June, dropping 2.1% on Friday alone.

This set of data does not indicate that "the overall US stock market is weakening." The Dow's increase indicates that pressure is mainly concentrated on technology and small-cap stocks, particularly sectors more sensitive to the financing environment and future growth assumptions. The S&P 500 tech sector also faced considerable pressure internally: at Friday's close, only 7 of the 75 constituent stocks did not end down. Micron, AMD, Broadcom, and Intel fell by 5.6%, 6.0%, 4.5%, and 5.8%, respectively. These are the single-day declines on Friday and should not be misinterpreted as the weekly decline.

US inflation data has put pressure on interest rate expectations. The September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, higher than August’s 3.4%; it increased 0.6% month-on-month, with gasoline prices rising 9.1%, contributing to more than half of the overall increase for the month. The following day, the final demand PPI for September rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year. The CPI reflects the prices consumers pay, while the PPI measures production-side prices; since the two baskets and measures differ, the PPI should not be simply seen as a direct forecast of future CPI. However, when viewed together, the cost pressures remain worthy of attention.

Industry Trends: AI Demand Has Not Disappeared, Financing Returns Become a New Issue

The focus of last week's tech stock adjustments was not whether there is demand for AI applications but whether the investment and returns in AI infrastructure can be matched. Data centers, chips, and power facilities require substantial upfront capital. Companies rely on operating cash flow, equity financing, and debt financing simultaneously when expanding. With rising interest rates and credit spreads, the first changes may be in project financing costs and payback periods.

CoreWeave's synchronous pressure on stocks and bonds allows the market to directly examine this issue. Its bond secondary market yields have risen, and investors have begun to reassess the relationship between computing power contracts, asset values, and debt terms. The bond volatility of a single company does not prove that the entire AI investment cycle has peaked, but it does remind the market that order volume does not equate to cash receipts, and revenue backlogs do not equal realized profits.

When observing this cross-market transmission, I compare US tech stocks, Hong Kong tech stocks, and BTC on the same market chart. The global one-stop asset allocation platform BiyaPay uses USDT as the core funding entry, connecting US and Hong Kong stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodity futures, cross-border remittance, and other scenarios through a single account system. It also supports the exchange of over 30 fiat currencies for more than 200 digital currencies, allowing participation in real stock trading like US and Hong Kong stocks with zero commission via USDT. For individuals who frequently monitor multiple markets, this centralized entry convenience enables better observation of different asset reactions to interest rates and risk preferences; regarding enterprise operational quality, it still boils down to the income, profits, cash flow, and capital expenditures in financial reports, which cannot be replaced by stock price linkage.

Not all tech stocks can be generalized. Chip companies need to see if orders can be converted to revenue and whether gross margins can be maintained; cloud service providers need to assess the relationship between AI service revenue and data center investments; platform companies should explain whether AI improves advertising, recommendations, or user efficiency. The investment cycle is still ongoing, but when the market values it, it is shifting from "how much was invested" to "what verifiable returns were generated from the investment."

Hong Kong Stock Review: Hang Seng Index Slightly Down, Hang Seng Tech Larger Decline

The Hong Kong stock market was normal from October 12 to 16, with a break due to holidays on October 19. The Hang Seng Index closed at 24186.83 points on October 16, down about 0.1% from the close on October 9; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 4108.24 points, down about 2.1% for the week. The Hang Seng Index appeared close to flat, but the pressure on tech stocks was more apparent.

During the week, the Hang Seng Tech Index experienced increased volatility: it dropped 2.72% on October 15 and rebounded 1.16% on October 16. This single-day rebound did not erase the weekly decline and should not be used to judge a trend reversal. Hong Kong tech stocks are simultaneously affected by the valuations of the US tech sector, expectations for the mainland economy, and their own earnings performance, and the directions of these three factors may not align.

It was announced on October 19 that China's GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 4.5% in the third quarter and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.2%. Retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.1% year-on-year in September, and the PPI for industrial producers rose 5.0% year-on-year for the same month. The overall growth, consumer demand, and upstream price performance do not completely align. After the holiday, how the market interprets this set of data will still need to consider industry earnings and company guidance, and cannot merely deduce the direction of the index from GDP growth rates.

Bitcoin also provides another reference for risk preferences. Based on UTC day's closing price, BTC fluctuated from about $82,564 on October 9 to about $81,524 on October 16, a decrease of approximately 1.3% during that period, still within a range of oscillation. The cryptocurrency market operates continuously, with statistical timings differing from the stock market; it is important to note the basis when directly comparing a single-day close with the US stock market’s weekly figures.

This Week Focus: Earnings Testing Profits, Data Testing Economic Resilience

Chinese Economic Data and Hong Kong Stock Resumption

The National Bureau of Statistics released the first three quarters' data on the morning of October 19, while the Hong Kong stock market was closed that day, resuming trading on October 20. It is worth observing how the market maps consumption, industrial prices, and foreign trade data to sectors like the internet, consumption, and manufacturing, rather than equating total GDP directly with individual stock revenue growth.

Netflix and Meta, Tesla Earnings Reports

Netflix plans to release its third-quarter performance on October 20 in Pacific time; Meta has confirmed it will publish its earnings report after the market closes on October 21 Eastern time and hold a conference call that same day; Tesla is also scheduled to announce its performance on October 21. The earnings reports of the latter two companies correspond to the early morning of October 22 Beijing time.

Meta needs to address whether the growth in advertising revenue can cover AI-related capital expenditures and whether the market can see operational evidence from recommendations, advertising conversions, and cost efficiency. Tesla has announced third-quarter deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, production of 464,391 vehicles, and energy storage deployment of 13.7GWh; the supplementary information needed in the earnings report is the profit contribution per vehicle, cash flow, profit contribution from energy storage business, and progress of new businesses like autonomous driving. Deliveries and deployments serve as business quantity indicators and cannot directly replace profits.

Netflix's focus is on the quality of growth in subscriptions and advertising business, content investment efficiency, and free cash flow. The business models of streaming media, social platforms, and automotive enterprises vary, and comparisons of earnings reports should take into account their respective key operational indicators, not just whether earnings per share exceed expectations.

US Housing, Employment, and Economic Surveys

This week’s US economic calendar is relatively light: on October 20, new housing starts and building permits for September will be released; on October 22, initial jobless claims for the current week will be announced; and on October 23, the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, as well as the final Michigan consumer confidence reading will be published. Federal Reserve officials are in a quiet period before the meeting, leaving the market without new statements from officials, thus elevating the weight of data and earnings reports.

The housing data reflects the high-interest rate impact on mortgage and new construction demand; initial jobless claims provide weekly clues about the labor market; PMIs and consumer confidence help assess business activity, cost, and demand expectations. Individual data points may be influenced by seasonality and sampling, and market reaction will also depend on deviations from expectations, as well as whether they change perceptions of inflation, growth, and interest rates.

This Week's Observation Framework: Can Earnings Catch Up with Costs

Last week, the market did not conclude that the "AI trade is over," but brought financing and return issues to the forefront. CPI and PPI indicate that price pressures remain, and the volatility of chip stocks and AI infrastructure-related assets reminds the market that financing conditions will affect the pace of expansion; Hong Kong stocks are overall close to flat, but the tech sector is weaker; BTC continues to oscillate without showing a clear directional trend.

Key validations this week come from corporate earnings reports and macroeconomic data. If companies like Meta and Tesla can explain their investments with revenues, profits, and cash flows, the market may begin to distinguish between capital expenditures with returns and long-term narratives that are yet to be validated; if data continues to show rising costs, slowing demand, or weakening profit guidance, valuation pressures may persist. In observing the market this week, the focus should not be on whether a particular headline is hot enough, but rather whether the operational data can fulfill the growth expectations already priced into the market.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到[email protected]，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。