Observation before the release of CPI on October 14, 2026
The market has started to stabilize yesterday. From the daily chart of Bitcoin, there are two key supports below: the 365-day moving average (currently around 78,500) and the bull-bear transition zone (currently around 76,000).
These two supports may not necessarily be touched in the short term. The buying support around 80,000 is worth noting, as there has been buying after the previous two declines. I have been saying these two weeks that when the market falls back, it's the window to buy in batches. If not trading short contracts, the overall big trend is still upward.
I am observing the crossing opportunity between the 365-day moving average and the bull-bear transition zone; the two lines are approaching each other. Just during the time we discussed the market, the price jumped to 84,000. Looking back at the historical trends of Bitcoin, at the beginning of a bull market, the 365-day moving average will often form a golden cross with the bull-bear transition zone; at the beginning of a bear market, the two will form a death cross. I predict that within the next month, the golden cross is highly likely to take shape. If the golden cross is confirmed, I will regard it as a trend signal indicating that the bull market has been running for a period of time. Throughout the entire bull market cycle, the bull-bear transition zone for Bitcoin will remain above the 365-day moving average until the bear market begins, when it will be broken by the price.
BTC opened the day with a candlestick showing upper and lower shadows, with both bulls and bears continuously tugging at each other. If you look at the market indicators, you can see that the order book is now filled with dense buy and sell orders. With the buy and sell orders concentrated simultaneously, short-term speculation will also be more intense.
Personally, I judge that there is a high probability of a rally tonight, but I do not have any contracts open; my positions are mostly in spot.
Let's recap the underlying logic behind the market decline after the National Day. News is just a surface phenomenon; the reaction of prices to news is the real information worth capturing. The macro pressure discussed at that time includes the 30-year US Treasury yield nearing 5.7%, the 10-year yield around 5.3%, and the rising pressure of oil prices and inflation. The market's expectations for another rate hike within the year are also warming up.
The vast majority of people doing trades are easily led by emotions. When the market is rising, all they see are positive signals; when the market is falling, they only see various negative signals. But only a small number of people can filter out the truly valuable information from the complex appearances.
I wonder if everyone has noticed that now altcoins have also started to make moves. When negative news keeps increasing, but prices can't seem to drop, that signal itself is very meaningful. Just like when it dropped to 58,000, after the market fell into extreme pessimism, the selling pressure gradually dried up, and the selling orders could no longer be executed. At present, the position around 80,000 is hard to break down, as there continues to be funds sweeping up. We are currently in a strong trending market, where macro pressures continue to be released, but the price trend has not been genuinely broken.
Therefore, in my view, the market tonight is likely to consolidate mainly, and the probability of a deep drop is low. Currently, BTC is around 83,000, and if you hold long positions, you should pay attention to these key points:
If the price falls below 79,000 again, consider closing long positions in the short term.
If the market quickly surges to 100,000 in a short time, you can set up some defensive short positions in the range of 98,000 to 105,000 to hedge against weekly level retracement risks. Once the daily price stabilizes above 108,000, the observation criteria for these defensive short positions become invalid.
If it does not surge violently but oscillates repeatedly in the 80,000 to 100,000 range, you can set the defensive level at 115,000 to 125,000.
In the order book, many transactions look like programmed orders. Based on the movements at the time, I still lean towards a bullish mid-term direction. My judgment is that unless a sudden black swan occurs, the trend is unlikely to turn quickly; this remains a judgment that needs to continue to be verified by prices.
The focus is still on these two positions: the 365-day moving average (currently around 78,500) and the bull-bear transition zone (currently around 76,000).
The most crucial data coming up is the US CPI, which will be released at 8:30 PM on October 14. Looking at the longer cycles in the primary market, the overall sentiment cannot be described as hot. Funds are no longer blindly chasing new concept public chains and MEME coins. Institutional funds are shifting towards tracks that can materialize and have real cash flow: RWA assets, stablecoins, derivatives markets, and automated trading tools.
Currently, there are three main narrative lines in the public chain track: AI, RWA, and privacy. Funds are laying out related concept assets (ZEC, Robinhood Chain), and public chain projects also have to position their products around these directions. We can see that Near is continually promoting AI-related products while also focusing on the privacy track (Near Intent + ZEC). The other two key assets are Monad and Injective, with Monad currently emphasizing RWA + privacy narratives.
Now let’s talk about my current trading thoughts. Entering a new cycle, we need to adopt a different perspective from the past to view the market. The price movements of altcoins in the market largely depend on mechanical buying orders and market attention. Attention also spawns new branches, such as incremental buying driven by influential entities. The most intuitive manifestation of mechanical buying orders is buybacks. Whether the market for these assets can continue depends on whether the buyback funds can keep flowing.
Take Hyperliquid as an example; it uses platform fees for buybacks, and the scale and sustainability of fees entirely depend on user scale and market sentiment. Pons is the same; when on-chain sentiment was hot earlier, potential mechanical buying orders were very ample. The earlier ETH DAT followed a similar logic. Because this kind of buying orders is insensitive to price highs and lows, market funds will often preemptively run ahead and ambush this kind of mechanical buying orders.
I tend to believe that PONS has digested a lot of selling pressure, but we will need to see the progress of RB and its ecosystem next. I have previously reminded that there is no need to rush in to take positions. The market itself carries risks, and everyone must make independent judgments.
After the hype for RWA emerged, many related platforms surfaced in the market. With low liquidity in the crypto market, attention has become the core factor affecting the price of coins. Near is a very typical example; the hype for ZEC brought massive traffic to NEAR Intents, bringing back to market visibility of this set of products that had not been fully priced before. Subsequently, NEAR experienced a revaluation, with incremental buying entering and pushing the price higher. Once it rose to a certain extent, with marginal buying exhausted, Near's price began to retrace.
Regarding gold, prices are nearing around 4k, and long opportunities can be sustained. Currently, both the daily and weekly charts show a double-bottom formation. If the 4100 position can hold, the probability of a rebound is very high.
The current price is operating around 4157, but this wave of rise is encountering strong pressure from above structural levels. The rebound power looks strong, but it has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal. The price once surged to the 4200 area, which is a key dividing line, and friends participating in gold trading should pay close attention. For gold to strengthen entirely, the overall price must stabilize above 4200 and break 4214. Before this breakout, the current trend can still only be viewed as a repair rebound within a bear market structure. Among the short-term targets, I had been paying attention to BTW. The chart shows its price movements, and seeing such an increase makes one think, “How did I miss this again?” But studying a target and chasing the increase are two different things.
This target started in March and underwent significant consolidation for seven months.
Let’s also discuss Binance bStocks' advanced play. Besides individual stocks like Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla, there are ETF products like SPYB and QQQB. I recommend allocating SPYB and QQQB. The hottest targets in bStocks are basically star companies like Nvidia, Tesla, TSMC, and AMD. However, we are not building a short-term tech stock speculation portfolio but a permanent investment portfolio that can be held long-term for many years. For those who are just starting to study allocation, you can first understand what role each type of asset plays in the portfolio.
SPYB corresponds to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust; a single buy can cover 500 large leading companies in the US, so positions do not have to be completely dependent on the performance of a particular company. QQQB can serve as a supplement, but its holdings lean towards technology and growth stocks, resulting in a higher concentration. SPYB handles the stock position, PAXG takes on the gold position, and USDT and USDC are placed in spot and wealth management accounts, respectively, to meet liquidity needs while earning returns. I discuss this combination to separate arrangements for stocks, gold, and dollar liquidity. Diversified allocation still carries fluctuations and risks; returns will not automatically stabilize simply because it's called a “permanent portfolio.”
In the past, doing long-term configurations in the crypto space was easily directed toward two extremes: either holding all stablecoins and watching the market rise or converting all funds into BTC and a bunch of altcoins, fluctuating wildly with the market every day. bStocks just happens to provide a third option, packaging US stocks, gold, and dollar assets into on-chain investment portfolios.
By the way, let’s talk about two chains I have been continuously paying attention to. Recently, STRK and Wormhole have often seen prices leading the way; many altcoins are restless. What the market has lacked is not information but the judgment of whether a piece of news can truly change the underlying fundamentals of assets. A big name saying “considering it,” an old collaboration news, or a significant wallet address movement can be enough to drive the price of coins to fluctuate by many points. This indicates that many times what we are trading is not the fact itself, but the judgment of whether others will believe this narrative.
The RB ecosystem is also like this; PONS rose from 0.28 to 0.33 because rumors circulated in the market that the founder was putting out 10 million dollars to support ecosystem projects. As long as there are funds willing to enter and buy, the price can continue to rise. Narrative stories can quickly drive prices, but they cannot immediately change project fundamentals.
When the market falls into FOMO sentiment, ask yourself three questions: Is there new cash flow? Is there new real demand? Has the supply structure changed? If none of these three points are present, it is likely just the market attention switching to a new facade. I hope this thought process can help everyone. Currently, the market sentiment is not considered enthusiastic; whether in the primary market or altcoin sector, once the market rises, take profits, do not be greedy and prolong the battle.
During this time, I have also talked multiple times about the allocation thoughts for altcoins. The price itself is the best survey result; it's best to directly focus on the strongest targets within the track. After the National Day, the market has also produced many new coins. The PRL Pearl Chain I participated in back in May is expected to attack new highs recently. Those interested can research it; it belongs to the AI concept and has not been on the market for long, about half a year.
The remaining opportunities can focus more on these leading tracks: Privacy Concept: ZEC DEX perpetual contracts + buyback concept: HYPE RWA, Stock on-chain concept: UNI AI public chain concept: NEAR
Many people enter a bull market with a singular focus on finding tenfold, thirtyfold, or even hundredfold coins. Reality is often disappointing; many think they have found a potential dark horse that the market has not yet discovered, heavily investing in low market cap altcoins, ultimately getting stuck and even going to zero. In fact, as long as you grasp the leading coins in the mainstream hot sectors, thoroughly understand the entire market cycle, the returns will already be considerable.
The biggest pitfalls that people easily fall into during a bull market are frequently changing positions at the wrong nodes. Seeing other coins rise, they cannot hold onto their chips, and when they chase in, that coin starts to consolidate and retrace; while the one they just sold starts a补涨行情. Back and forth several times, even if the overall market rise is substantial, ultimately when you add it up, you don't make much profit at all.
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