With the release of CPI data, the market finally fell again, with Bitcoin dropping to 80188 at one point, and now recovering to 81533, seemingly reaching a stable state. The publication of this data is extremely unfavorable for Trump and is also in a bearish state for us; two data points that Old Cui is particularly concerned about are the overall CPI year-on-year at 3.7%, compared to an expectation of 3.6%, which is higher than expected, and the core CPI year-on-year at 2.6%, compared to an expectation of 2.5%, also higher than expected. Additionally, gasoline prices rose by 9.1% month-on-month, which is a major driving factor behind the overall CPI rise; do not be overly affected by these data points, as there will be no interest rate hike in October; all data is paving the way for a rate hike in December. As for Trump’s midterm elections, although they have not yet begun, Old Cui can already determine that the seats in both chambers will likely fail. The chain reaction: spot gold fell 2% during the day, currently reported at 4075.3 USD/ounce, Nasdaq futures fell over 2%, and S&P 500 and Dow Jones index futures are also down.

Inflation exceeding expectations will raise market expectations for interest rates, thus putting pressure on the dollar and short-term U.S. Treasury yield direction — the dollar is relatively strong, while Treasury prices are weak, and yields are rising. After the data was released, the dollar strengthened, and the yield on U.S. two-year treasury notes rose significantly. High interest rates will lower the present value of future cash flows, which is particularly unfavorable for tech stocks and overvalued growth stocks. After the data was released, major U.S. stock indices were under pressure. Higher-than-expected inflation means it will be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to pivot towards easing. The pricing probability of an interest rate hike at the meeting on October 27-28 rose from about 22% to about 45% after the data's release. This is just market pricing and does not represent the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates. This feedback is merely preheating the market, speculating on expectations, and when the rate hike arrives, perhaps the market's reaction will be milder. There has been enough interpretation of these data aspects, and Old Cui will not elaborate further; the core focus remains on the cryptocurrency circle.

Old Cui summarizes: I believe those paying attention to the cryptocurrency market have recently noted Russia’s regulatory process, including domestically, as the SOL company launched a giant advertisement at the Bund in Shanghai yesterday. They also officially announced the establishment of an office in Shanghai and will kick off a technical event tour across four cities in China. Starting from October 16, the activities are planned to take place in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Beijing. According to information released by Solana, this event will focus on areas such as blockchain infrastructure, artificial intelligence, robotics, hardware, payments, consumer technology, and global product outreach, connecting local developers, entrepreneurs, investors, and the global Solana ecosystem. The timing of this advertisement has already been deemed a violation; it remains to be seen whether subsequent actions will continue, and it is very likely that Citibank will face penalties. Old Cui feels this is a test, and the outcome is not particularly good.

Remember that this advertisement timing is not investment-themed. This test releases an extremely clear signal that the domestic market will not open in the short term. I have previously mentioned that since the clean-up, there hasn’t been much domestic movement that warrants reference for investments. Only at the end of the year, when cashing out, should there be considerations of funds entering the market, making this test a small positive signal. At least it lets investors know that the cryptocurrency ecosystem is still in a phase of improvement, and some underlying technology is still being developed. The market is still in an expansion phase, and technological development has not been abandoned. For those investing in the crypto space, the domestic environment is not friendly, and there is not much information to reference. Therefore, Old Cui tries to provide more consulting within reasonable limits, as these moves will manifest their value when the bull market arrives. The emergence of this news only reinforces Old Cui’s belief in SOL's future. Its current growth can no longer be classified as a copycat coin and is slowly integrating into mainstream cryptocurrency layers; currently, SOL has a very high ceiling.

After the release of CPI data, the short-term crypto market is certainly under pressure, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Based on current observations, the 80000 mark for Bitcoin appears to be relatively stable, and everyone should pay attention to the 83000 mark moving forward. There is no need to wait for the 85000 mark to short anymore, because 83000 is where U.S. pensions and some institutions are positioned, and there will be a competitive situation. The real killer blow will need to wait for the next round of interest hikes and the Federal Reserve's speech at the end of October. Releasing bearish news will promptly lead into a bearish direction, while releasing bullish news will sustain the capital dumping wave until the end of the year. In summary, the downtrend this year will become increasingly clear over time. What everyone needs to do now is to align with their positions, thinking about how to maximize their interests in this bearish wave. For those still stuck in short positions, your moment of unpairing is coming soon, and the 80000 mark won’t hold for long. To reiterate, the interest rate hike cycle may extend longer than Old Cui estimates, which may imply a lower lower limit!

Original article created by WeChat public account: Chain Science. For assistance, please contact directly.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。