Last night's CPI exceeded expectations across the board, with Bitcoin dropping directly from 8339 to 80226, falling 3100 points in a single day, currently rebounding to around 81100; Ethereum fared worse, dropping 7.7% to 2313; gold, on the other hand, rose against the trend, becoming the only safe-haven asset. While negative news hit, Strive invested 235 million dollars to buy 2822 BTC at the bottom, bringing their total holdings to 35595 BTC, with institutions frantically accumulating shares during the crash. Jiang Ye's judgment: The CPI exceeding expectations is a trend-based bearish signal, and the high interest rate environment continues to suppress valuations; however, after the short-term crash, many cycles are extremely oversold, creating a need for a technical rebound. The operation mainly focuses on rebounds from oversold positions, but a rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions rather than a reversal; stabilize light positions while betting on more, and reduce positions or lighten positions on rebounds to resistance levels.

Brothers, on the journey of the rivers and lakes, do not fear the distance, and find like-minded friends along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiang Ye.

1. Yesterday I said to reduce positions before the CPI data, and today it proved correct

Yesterday I repeatedly emphasized to halve positions before the CPI data, and not to take heavy positions betting on the direction. Today, as soon as the CPI was released, the market crashed, with Bitcoin dropping 3100 points in a single day and Ethereum falling 7.7%. Those with heavy positions today either had to sell at the lows or hold on halfway, which is uncomfortable.

This is not my prediction being accurate; it’s simply that betting on the direction before data during a rate hike cycle is inherently dangerous. You might think after a drop of 6600 points a rebound is due, but an unexpected CPI can cause another drop of 3000 points. Controlling positions before data is not conservatism; it's lifesaving.

2. CPI exceeding expectations is a trend-based bearish signal, while institutional buying is short-term support

Today's market is a game of "trend-based bearish + short-term buying bullish," let's discuss them separately:

The CPI exceeding expectations has made the major trend more bearish. The September CPI annual rate of 3.7% created a new high since May, and the core CPI annual rate of 2.6% also exceeded expectations. The key issue is not the numbers themselves, but that price increases have spread from energy to core goods, housing, and services, blooming everywhere. This is no longer a “temporary inflation driven by rising oil prices"; it is widespread inflation, and the Federal Reserve has no reason to back down. The "New Federal Reserve Correspondence" directly stated that “this at least strengthens the rationale for a rate hike in December,” and the probability of a rate hike in October once surged to 50%. The US dollar index reached a new high since April last year, and US stocks fell for three consecutive days, putting pressure on risk assets. This is a trend-based bearish situation, not short-term noise; the high-interest environment will likely continue for a long time.

However, institutions are buying at the bottom, and there is support around 80000. At the same time the CPI crashed the market, the CEO of Strive announced a 235 million dollar increase, buying 2822 BTC, boosting total holdings to 35595 BTC. This is not a small move; it’s real money entering the market at the 80000-83000 range. Additionally, Evernorth has invested 648 million dollars in XRP, forming alliances with exchanges and market makers. What does this indicate? It indicates that top institutions believe current prices have value for allocation, and that the area around 80000 is a strong support zone.

While the major trend remains bearish, the CPI exceeding expectations has extended the rate hike cycle; however, the short-term drop was too sharp, many cycles are extremely oversold, combined with institutions buying at the bottom providing support, leading to a technical rebound. But a rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions, not a reversal. Don’t just see institutions buying and shout “bottom”; institutions can handle a 30% floating loss; you cannot.

3. Stabilize and wait for a rebound, reduce positions at resistance during the rebound

Bitcoin 81104 | Bet on more at 80500-80200, reduce positions at 81500-82000

The 1-hour and 4-hour KDJ are extremely oversold, the downward momentum has been excessively released, creating a strong demand for a rebound. However, at the 15-minute level, it is overbought, and after a short-term rebound, there may be a pullback. Key support is 80500-80200, key resistance is 81500-82000. Stabilize and bet on more when support holds during pullbacks, reduce positions or lighten positions at resistance levels on rebounds. Don’t chase shorts below 80200; chasing shorts in oversold positions can easily be swept away by rebounds; also, don’t chase longs just because it rebounded to 8200; the major trend is bearish, and chasing highs can easily lead to losses. If it breaks below the round number of 80000, it indicates a continuation of the trend-based decline, and you need to stop-loss in a timely manner.

Specific entry points, stop-loss positions, and target prices change in real-time during trading; if you want, friends can communicate and follow up together.

Ethereum 2368 | Bet on more at 2320-2300, reduce positions at 2400-2420

Today it fell -7.7%, more intensely than Bitcoin, with the 1-hour and 15-minute prices sticking to the lower Bollinger band, severely oversold; the 4-hour level also has a demand for a rebound. But funds are concentrated in BTC, so Ethereum's rebound strength may be weaker than Bitcoin's. Key support is 2320-2300, key resistance is 2400-2420. Stabilize and bet on more when support holds during pullbacks, reduce positions at resistance levels on rebounds. Ethereum has greater volatility, so keep positions lighter than Bitcoin, and ensure proper stop-losses. If it breaks below 2300, it could see 2280-2250.

Specific entry points, stop-loss positions, and target prices change in real-time during trading; if you want, friends can communicate and follow up together.

Gold 4150 | Sell at 4160-4180, bet on more at 4100-4080

The only one among the three to rise, as the CPI exceeding expectations has pushed inflation expectations higher + demand for safe havens, providing dual support for gold. However, the 1-hour TD9 showed a top + KDJ is severely overbought, indicating a need for a short-term adjustment. Key resistance is 4160-4180, key support is 4100-4080. Reduce positions lightly when encountering resistance during rebounding, and bet on more when support stabilizes on pullbacks. Gold still has its safe-haven property, but on a large scale, it is still bearish; do not chase highs.

Specific entry points, stop-loss positions, and target prices change in real-time during trading; if you want, friends can communicate and follow up together.

4. Today's small class: Institutions have bought at the bottom; can we follow their lead?

Today Strive invested 235 million to buy BTC, and many fans asked, "Since institutions are buying at the bottom, can I follow them?" Today let's clarify this issue.

The answer is: You can follow the direction, but you cannot mimic their positions.

Why? Because the margin for error between institutions and retail investors is vastly different. Strive is a listed company with long-term funds; when they buy, it's for asset allocation, and they can withstand a 30% or even 50% floating loss. If you're a retail investor trading with leverage, a 10% drop might put you at risk of liquidation. Institutions buying are making strategic allocations; your buying is betting on a short-term rebound, which is fundamentally different.

What is the correct approach? First, keep positions light; don’t charge in with heavy positions just because you see institutions buying; institutions buy to lay a foundation, not for an immediate rise. Second, use stop-losses; exit if it breaks critical support, don’t try to mimic institutions holding onto trades. Third, be quick to enter and exit, making technical rebounds instead of planning for long-term holds. Institutions’ bottoms are "long-term bottoms," while your bottom is a "short-term rebound bottom"; don’t confuse the two.

Remember: Institutions buying at the bottom is a support signal, not a reversal signal. Support can keep prices from falling, but it doesn’t mean prices will immediately shoot up. Follow the direction, but do not gamble on position sizes.

5. Fan Q&A: Why did gold rise when CPI exceeded expectations and was bearish?

A fan asked me: "Jiang Ye, with the CPI exceeding expectations and rate hikes being bearish, shouldn’t gold also fall? So why did gold rise instead?"

My answer: Because gold has dual attributes, and this time its inflation attribute overshadowed its interest rate attribute.

The normal logic is: CPI exceeds expectations → expectations for rate hikes increase → US Treasury yields rise → gold falls. This is led by interest rate attributes.

Why did it come out in the opposite direction this time? Because the inflation was far too unexpected. The CPI exceeded expectations across the board, and the market began to worry about "out of control inflation"; at this point, gold's inflation-resistant attributes came to light—higher inflation means gold maintains its value better. Moreover, as the stock market plummeted, risk aversion increased, and money flowed into gold for safekeeping. Inflation resistance + risk aversion created dual support, leading gold to rise instead.

But how long can it rise? It depends on where the market focus is. If the market continues to hype "out of control inflation," gold can keep rising; but if the focus shifts to "rate hikes lasting longer," US Treasury yields will continue to surge, and gold will drop back. So, currently, gold's rise is a rebound driven by risk aversion + inflation, not a trend reversal; for short-term operations, don’t get too attached.

6. Risk Control Reminder

Today, the CPI exceeded expectations, confirming a major bearish trend; a technical rebound occurred after a short-term crash, but a rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions, not a reversal. The main operation should be light positions; don’t rush in with heavy positions just because institutions are buying at the bottom; institutions can bear what you cannot endure. The 80000 level for Bitcoin is a critical psychological level; if it breaks below, the trend of decline will continue, and you need to timely stop-loss. Ethereum is even weaker, so keep positions lighter. Although gold has rebounded, don’t chase highs; chasing long positions in overbought positions has poor risk-reward ratios. Always ensure good stop-losses, don’t hold onto losing positions; during a major bearish trend, staying alive is more important than how much you earn.

7. Interactive Topic

CPI exceeded expectations across the board; do you think the Fed will raise rates in October? Strive bought at the bottom with 235 million dollars; do you think 80000 is the bottom? Can Bitcoin hold above 80000? Share your views in the comment section.

⚠️Risk Warning: The above content is merely a technical logical deduction based on market conditions, for reference and exchange only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets fluctuate wildly; contract trading carries extremely high risks. Please trade rationally, control positions strictly, set your own stop-losses, and bear the consequences of profits and losses.

For real-time changes during trading, if you want real-time points, we can communicate and follow up together. WeChat, three lines safew jyx9188

Thank you to all family members for your trust and companionship. Market conditions change rapidly; stable compounding is the long-term approach. I am Jiang Ye; see you next time.

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