US inflation is heating up again. The market's focus will not only be on the CPI but also on whether the pressure from oil prices will continue to transmit to the production and consumption ends.

The US September CPI rose by 3.7% year-on-year, higher than August's 3.4%; month-on-month it increased by 0.6%. Gasoline prices rose by 9.1% during the month, contributing to more than half of the overall monthly increase in CPI. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, up from the previous value of 2.4%. Inflation pressure has once again become an important variable in Federal Reserve policy.

Next, the market's focus will shift from inflation results to three questions: Will production costs continue to rise, can consumers maintain their spending, and does the Federal Reserve need to tighten policy further?

October 15: PPI and Retail Sales to be Released Simultaneously

The US September PPI and retail sales data will be released on October 15.

PPI focuses on cost transmission. If producer prices rise simultaneously, it indicates that energy, transportation, and other input costs may continue to transmit to businesses and end products. If the PPI increase is limited, it suggests that some of the pressure in CPI may still be focused on the energy side.

Retail sales focus on consumer resilience. If consumption remains strong while prices continue to rise, it will be more difficult for the Federal Reserve to judge whether demand is cooling; if consumption clearly slows down, it will need to weigh inflation pressure against economic growth risks.

October 14: Beige Book Has Been Released, Corporate Cost Pressures Are Worth Noting

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book was released on October 14. The report shows that rising fuel costs, such as diesel, are impacting industries such as freight, agriculture, and aviation, with some regions experiencing more noticeable cost pressures; meanwhile, the overall employment market remains relatively stable, but some companies are choosing to slow down hiring.

This report provides corporate feedback beyond official economic data. The market needs to observe whether the rise in energy prices is merely a short-term shock or is expanding to more goods and services.

October 28: Federal Reserve Decision Will Be the Next Key Node

The next FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for October 27-28.

A hot CPI does not necessarily mean that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. In the coming days, PPI, retail sales, employment situation, and statements from officials will jointly impact the market's judgment on the interest rate path.

If inflation remains high, expectations for rate cuts may further cool, and the dollar and US Treasury yields may also find support; if economic activity noticeably slows down, policymakers will still need to consider the impact of tightening on growth.

For the Crypto market, what really needs attention is not the immediate rise and fall of BTC after the release of a specific data point, but rather whether interest rate expectations continue to change, and whether dollar liquidity and risk appetite adjust accordingly.

The data on October 15 will serve as the starting point for the next round of judgments, while the FOMC decision on October 28 will test whether these signals are sufficient to change the Federal Reserve's policy choices.

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