TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) Q3 2026 earnings forecast: To be announced on October 15, focusing on AI demand and profit margins.

TSMC will release its third-quarter financial report on October 15, 2026 (Thursday), and the earnings conference call will start at 14:00 Taiwan time (02:00 Eastern Time).

Unlike most companies, TSMC has actually disclosed its revenue performance to the market in advance: according to the monthly revenue data released, third-quarter revenue reached a record high of NT$1.494 trillion, exceeding the upper limit of the company's own performance guidance range.

This shifts the focus of the earnings conference call to three questions: Will margins remain robust during the ramp-up period of 2nm process capacity? How strong will the fourth-quarter performance guidance be? Will capital expenditures continue to grow?

When will TSMC release the Q3 2026 financial report?

TSMC will hold its Q3 2026 earnings conference call on October 15, 2026 (Thursday). The company's quiet period before the financial report runs from October 5 to October 14. The conference call times for major time zones are as follows:

Taiwan/Beijing/Singapore: October 15 at 14:00
India (IST): October 15 at 11:30
London (BST): October 15 at 07:00
Eastern Time (ET): October 15 at 02:00
Pacific Time (PT): October 14 at 23:00

The conference call will take place after the Taiwan stock market closes at 13:30 local time and before the pre-market trading in the US stock market begins, so TSMC's shares listed in Taiwan and its ADR listed in the US will have to wait until the next trading session, several hours later, to reflect the financial report news.

What earnings guidance did TSMC provide for Q3 2026?

In the Q2 2026 financial report announcement, TSMC provided the following guidance for Q3:

Revenue: $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion, based on an exchange rate assumption of 1 USD to NT$32.0
Gross margin: 65.0% to 67.0%, down from 67.7% in Q2
Operating margin: 56.0% to 58.0%, down from 60.3% in Q2

Management expects the margin to decrease due to cost pressures from the rapid ramp-up of the 2nm process. Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang stated in the Q2 earnings conference call that the 2nm process is expected to dilute the gross margin by about 3 to 4 percentage points in the second half of the year.

Revenue figures have been revealed: What do the monthly data indicate?

TSMC's September revenue was NT$511.86 billion, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month and an increase of 54.6% year-on-year.

By adding the data for July, August, and September from TSMC’s monthly revenue table, third-quarter revenue reached NT$1.49424 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, and up 17.6% compared to Q2's NT$1.27038 trillion.

Based on the exchange rate of 1 USD to NT$32.0 used in TSMC's guidance, the third-quarter revenue is approximately $46.7 billion, about $900 million higher than the upper limit of the guidance range.

Thus, the real suspense on October 15 is no longer the revenue, but profitability and future outlook.

What data will count as beating expectations on October 15?

Here are the main benchmarks the market will use to measure financial performance, listed in order of their potential impact on stock prices:

Gross margin: Above 67.0%, indicating TSMC's ability to absorb costs from the 2nm production ramp-up is better than previously expected; 65.0% to 67.0% falls within guidance; below 65.0% suggests a greater dilution impact on the margin.
Fourth-quarter revenue guidance: Approximately $46.7 billion revenue for Q3 has set a new comparison benchmark. If the median of the fourth-quarter guidance range is above this level, it would indicate that AI demand is still accelerating heading into year-end.
Net profit: Reuters reported on October 8 that LSEG analysts expect TSMC's net profit for Q3 to increase by 64% year-on-year, reaching NT$740.8 billion.
Capital expenditures: According to the Q2 earnings conference call transcript, TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure budget from $52 billion to $56 billion to $60 billion to $64 billion in July. Any further signs approaching the upper end of this range, or early disclosures of 2027 investment plans by management, will be seen as important signals of AI demand.
Full-year growth: Management expects that revenue growth in USD terms will be slightly above 40% for 2026 during the same call. Currently, revenue for January to September in NT dollars has grown by 41.1% year-on-year, leaving room for adjustments in the full-year forecast.

Why is TSMC's earnings report this week so important for AI stocks?

Just a few days before TSMC releases its earnings, market concerns about the financing capacity of AI infrastructure have impacted chip and optical communication stocks, with Lumentum and Ciena each falling about 10% on October 12.

TSMC has not been spared either. On October 12, TSM ADR closed at $444.35, down 1.98%, marking its third consecutive day of decline.

High-performance computing (HPC) business accounted for 66% of TSMC's revenue in Q2. CEO C.C. Wei stated in the July earnings call that advanced packaging capacity is extremely tight, even limiting customer growth.

Thus, TSMC's comments about AI demand, advanced packaging capacity, and capital expenditures are not only critical signals for assessing the business prospects of Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, but will also directly test whether the AI financing concerns that drove the selloff this week are justified.

MEXC market data: performance of TSM perpetual contracts before the earnings report

MEXC TSM/USDT perpetual contracts support trading around the clock, including during the time when TSMC's earnings report is released and both the Taiwan and US stock markets are closed. The following market snapshot was recorded on October 13, 2026, at 14:19 Beijing time (02:19 Eastern Time):

Latest price: $441.10, down about 0.73% from the October 12 closing price of $444.35
24-hour price range: $440.83 to $460.15; the highest price occurred before the US market opened on October 12, and the lowest price was during the Asian trading session on October 13
Funding rate: +0.0010%, close to zero, indicating no obvious unilateral bias from both bulls and bears before the earnings conference call

At the time of the snapshot, the contract price was at the bottom of the 24-hour range, about 4% lower than the pre-market opening high in the US stock market, reflecting the continued sell-off pressure on AI hardware stocks from October 12 into the Asian trading session.

It is important to note that around-the-clock trading does not imply that it can accurately reflect the price discovery process of the underlying stocks at all times. During the non-trading period for US stocks after the earnings call, the perpetual contract price may deviate from TSM's subsequent opening price on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Frequently Asked Questions

When will TSMC release its Q3 2026 financial report?

TSMC will hold its Q3 earnings conference call on October 15, 2026, at 14:00 Taiwan time, which is equivalent to 02:00 Eastern Time on October 15, and 23:00 Pacific Time on October 14.

What is TSMC's revenue guidance for Q3 2026?

TSMC originally expected Q3 revenue to be between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion. Based on the already released monthly revenue data, the revenue for Q3 is approximately $46.7 billion calculated using the guidance exchange rate, exceeding the upper limit of the guidance range.

What gross margin is TSMC expected to report for Q3?

TSMC expects its Q3 gross margin to be between 65.0% and 67.0%, down from 67.7% in Q2, mainly due to dilution effects from the ramp-up of the 2nm process. If the actual gross margin exceeds 67.0%, it means it has surpassed the company's guidance.

How will TSMC's earnings report affect Nvidia and other AI stocks?

TSMC manufactures most of the leading AI chips, so its fourth-quarter guidance and capital expenditure plans will be viewed by the market as significant signals for assessing AI demand for companies such as Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, especially following the sell-off of AI hardware stocks on October 12.

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