After National Day, the market of the big cake is a bit tangled: the price rebounded from around $57,800 to above $87,000, and everyone just started discussing the "early stage of a bull market," but the three-day MACD showed a dead cross. Just as the bull market is emerging, is it already turning around?
Let’s turn the clock back to October 13, 2026. This article talks about the market from 16:00 to 16:57 that day, with prices, indicators, and judgments based on the context of that time. My view is: BTC has completed its bottom repair, and currently resembles a pullback in the early stage of a bull market, but whether it can be confirmed still depends on key support levels. Judging the market's death sentence based solely on a dead cross is a bit hasty.
We extend the timeframe, starting from the three-day line. At that time, the DIF had already crossed below the DEA, and the histogram had also turned negative. The three-day line filtered out quite a few short-term fluctuations, so this dead cross deserves serious attention.
Looking back at this rebound, the starting point in July was around $57,800. After the price recovered to the $64,000 area, it broke through $76,000, reaching a high of $87,400. This rise completed the bottom repair and made the market re-discuss the early stages of the bull market. However, afterwards the price returned to around $82,700, and daily momentum weakened in tandem, marking the mid-term market entering a verification period.
The dead cross indicates declining momentum, but the subsequent direction still relies on price structure. It is a trend confirmation signal which usually lags behind price. If the market can hold above key support, the MACD histogram may gradually converge; if the price repeatedly breaks below support, the negative histogram will often expand, and BTC might also return to the $70,000 range. If it truly goes there, the focus should be on observing support rather than hastily reacting to numerical indicators.
There is another detail worth noting: after BTC quickly surged from around $64,000, it lingered in the $84,000 to $87,000 range for a long time. The high position's turnover accumulated new holding costs, which also increased sell pressure during corrections. So this adjustment is about digesting the previous gains and testing how much real buying interest is in the market.
After looking at the three-day line, let’s also put the daily line and chip distribution together. At that time, the daily MACD was also in a dead cross state, with the negative histogram still extending. The daily line weakened first, then the three-day line confirmed, indicating that pressure from the short cycle had already transmitted to the mid-cycle. The price temporarily held above $82,000 and had not yet touched the major chip area near $77,000.
Initially, focus on $84,000. If it can regain stability at this position, it means that short-term sell pressure has been digested to a certain extent. Further up, $87,000 is a more important confirmation level: it needs to break through with volume and maintain for several days for the pressure from the three-day dead cross to gradually ease. A breakthrough above $87,000 could serve as a signal for the main upward wave to start, but it depends on whether it can hold.
On the downside, focus on the $75,100 to $77,200 range. The four-hour chip distribution shows that many transactions concentrate in this area, and the vicinity of $77,200 overlaps with the previous platform. If returning here shows increased volume support, the logic of the early stage of the bull market can still be maintained; this drop looks more like a pullback before a trend starts.
If $75,100 is breached, the price structure would have to enter the next level of verification, and the previous judgment of the early stage of a bull market would need to be reassessed. $64,000 is the core cost area formed after this round of bottoming, and the chip density is higher; if it truly returns there, the advantages accumulated in this breakout would significantly shrink, and the market would need to rebuild its mid-term structure.
No need to memorize these positions as if for an exam; just remember the general order of judgment: watch for confirmation at $87,000, check for pullback support near $76,000, and if it continues to hold below, guard against looking for support around $64,000. Based on the market condition at that time, I lean more towards it being a pullback before the main upward wave; I don't have that grim a view on the prospect of it adjusting down to the $60,000 range. However, this is ultimately a judgment, and if the price does not cooperate, it must be re-evaluated.
Why am I leaning towards a pullback? Besides the candlestick chart, we can also look at the MVRV. To put it simply, it observes the market valuation alongside on-chain holding costs. A ratio above 1 indicates that the market as a whole has accumulated part of the unrealized gains; at that time, the MVRV was about 1.55, higher than around 1.10 near the recent low, and there is still room before reaching the historically high area. It provides a basis for continued upward movement while reminding us: profit-taking exists, and during a pullback, there is indeed sell pressure.
At that time, BTC's market capitalization accounted for about 59.84%, and it has been rising recently. Funds continue to concentrate on the big cake, indicating strong market preference for core assets, while reflecting that altcoin market absorption is relatively weak, and fund diffusion has not truly formed. In the early stages of bull markets, BTC often first obtains liquidity, but we still need to observe whether ETH and other mainstream assets can keep up.
On the sentiment side, the fear and greed index has dropped to 57, having pulled back from a high but still in a neutral to optimistic area. People are willing to participate, but the enthusiasm for chasing prices has somewhat waned. Placing all this data together, I prefer to understand BTC at that time as in the pullback phase of the early stage of a bull market: the support is provided by the bottom structure and valuation repair, while the three-day dead cross and weak American spot buying create pressure.
Of course, it’s not just about the candlesticks. The discussion on October 13 also coincided with a busy event window: U.S. bank earnings reports, the upcoming CPI, and ASML's third-quarter performance. Economic data, inflation, and demand for AI are undergoing tests one after another, which may influence dollar liquidity and risk appetite, thereby affecting whether BTC initially tests upward pressure or seeks support downward.
About the bank earnings reports, the focus at that time was on JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Their direct impact on BTC is limited; what’s more useful is helping to judge whether new credit pressures have emerged in the U.S. economy. Of course, growth is to be looked at, but credit loss provisions, credit card write-off rates, and delinquency rates should not be overlooked either.
My observation approach at that time was: if credit loss provisions are within 5% higher than market expectations, the credit quality is generally stable; if over 10%, coupled with rising credit card write-off rates and delinquency rates, attention should be paid to whether the consumer side is under pressure. These values serve as observation conditions in the discussion and should be viewed alongside other credit data. If it aligns with the expectation of "bank profits continuing to grow, credit quality stable," the market disturbance is usually limited; if credit data show obvious weakness, U.S. stocks and BTC may face pressure, and we’ll need to see if the U.S. Treasury yields can provide support.
Next is the CPI. The discussion's timing was set for October 14 at 20:30 Beijing time, where the U.S. September CPI was to be released, so friends concerned about evening market movements need to pay attention in advance. The specific release time and results should be based on official announcements; the data and expectations referenced here were those from the discussion on October 13.
At that time, the cited data from August was: overall CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, and up 3.4% year-on-year; core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and up 2.4% year-on-year. The expectations for September were that overall CPI year-on-year might rise to 3.6% to 3.7%, while core CPI month-on-month might slow to 0.2%. All these were references in the discussion and should not be considered already published September results.
When looking at the data, the key is still the gap between the actual value and the expectations. If below expectations, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar usually have opportunities to ease, and Nasdaq valuations might also receive support; if above expectations, the market will repricing the interest rate path, tech stock valuations may easily feel pressure, and BTC will need to see if it can hold $82,000. If it cannot hold, it may further retreat to around $76,000. ASML’s third-quarter performance is another important assignment in the same window to observe AI industry chain demand.
Returning to the market, I also revisited the customized long-cycle MACD chart, where the crossover signal had not yet completed confirmation. It aligns with the previous directional judgments, and momentum recovery still requires patience in observation.
By placing different cycles' charts together and combining them with chip distribution and the positions of major orders, the approximate range for the pullback becomes clearer. The disagreement mainly lies in the strength of the adjustment: at that time, I leaned towards the $70,000 area being a zone to reevaluate chip entry, rather than directly judging that the market would fall back to $60,000. If it truly reaches the $60,000 range, the previous judgment of whether the bear market has ended would need to be re-examined.
Next, focus on four signals: whether BTC can hold $82,000, whether there can be support around $76,000, whether Coinbase premiums can return to positive values, and whether ETF funds can resume continuous inflow. Improving in all four aspects will enhance the quality of a breakthrough at $87,000; if funds continue to be weak, the price may test the chip area downward.
Ultimately, the bottom repair has already occurred, but whether the early stage of the bull market can be confirmed still requires responses from price and funds. This is just my judgment on the market condition of October 13; everyone should pay attention to their positions, allocate reasonably, and leave some room for adjustment. Small investments are enjoyable, while large investments can cause stress—since the market hasn't moved out yet, don’t let your stress show first.
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