The overall trend of the market is very weak, with yesterday's low at 82751 and the high at 84180, the overall fluctuation is only about 1400 points, offering no analytical value; instead, let's talk about a topic that everyone is concerned about, the directional choice of investment in the cryptocurrency circle, and the correct approach? If everyone can patiently watch, I believe that after reading this explanation, you will have a preliminary understanding of the financial market. I will still use Lao Cui's trading methods to break it down; the essence of the financial market is the decision-making of both buyers and sellers, where scarcity makes things valuable, while use value comes first; the weights of investment are: 60% on information discrimination (directional choice) + 10% on capital position ratio + 10% on technical aspects + 20% on psychological influence. For everyone, the hardest point is the discrimination of information, which has the largest weight, followed by psychological construction. It is difficult to judge the news, which is often based on changes in the global landscape, such as military actions and the Federal Reserve's decisions (interest rate meetings, monetary strategies, etc.), which can affect many factors.

In addition, everyone’s interpretation of the news is not thorough, which can also lead to significant directional deviations. For example, in recent years, domestic trade differences, the discussion based on surplus and deficit has been very fragmented. When these problems arose, a certain Nobel Prize-winning economist had already provided conclusions after the millennium, but now these problems still exist. The contradiction lies in the excessive surplus, which the deficit side simply cannot accept. This is why there is a trade war between us and Europe and America; once such problems arise, it will naturally lead to turmoil in the structure. Regardless of whose collapse occurs, it will bring about the impact of a financial crisis. This is how society works at this stage; the stronger individuals tend to face more suppression and engage in more activities. Returning to the present stage, judging current news requires going back to the essence of the market, which is decision-making between buyers and sellers; do not be influenced by other news.

How do buyers and sellers price in the current financial market? Gold is being bought by many, there are buyers in US stocks, some buy A shares, energy is being bought, and no one is buying US Treasuries, while the exchange rate is extremely unstable. To determine whether the world structure is stable, just look at two indicators: the exchange rate and US Treasuries. Precisely, these two most important indicators have encountered significant problems. Buying US Treasuries means investing in America, and we have mentioned before that the pillar of modern finance is still America, and the exchanges are still in the dollar system. When these two indicators experience problems, it means their rules are being rewritten. The market's choice will always be to prioritize high quality at low prices. No matter how much tariffs increase, it cannot change our price advantage; as long as there is profit, low prices are the biggest weapon, and the confrontation between both sides will continue until a winner emerges. Thus, the threat to our financial market will always exist, and the directional choice will naturally not be to look bullish. (On this point, Lao Cui is not very bold to elaborate; those interested can discuss privately with Lao Cui)

Overall, the judgment of directionality currently carries a high risk coefficient, with the possibility of collapse at any moment. It is not just an AI issue; the entire market's bubble has resulted in significant capital problems, and the exchange rate issue has caused currencies to depreciate too quickly and needs to be redefined. Fundamentally, all that America does is to save itself. The 10% capital position ratio, everyone's attention should be on the platform side, many like Lao Cui are watching the positions of BlackRock and MicroStrategy, and there are even some tracking American pensions and official dollar-cost averaging. These references are not strong, and the dollar-cost averaging method is such that regardless of a bull or bear market, purchases or sales will occur at this time point. The market will price in expected values early; often when such positions change, they bring different directions. For example, the early sell-off by MicroStrategy happened, while from the end of September to the present, the market has been rising, making the meaning of tracking MicroStrategy not very significant.

The operations that everyone should pay attention to are contract users looking at Binance's staking data and Binance’s selling operations; understanding what staking means. The data that appears to be staking shows huge returns, higher than the yield on US Treasuries, over 5.5% returns. The platform takes the cryptocurrencies you stake to sell off, and then buys them back at low prices and sells them to you. The reference value here is very clear, and Binance's operations are also very straightforward; everyone can use this as a mid-term reference. The reference for spot market trading mainly follows American operations; as long as they continue to purchase and improve the system, such investments will yield significant returns. Including subsequent technical analysis, these two aspects can be discussed simultaneously, the capital positions and technical aspects are predictable, and these two are easy to understand and need not be elaborated further. Psychological influence is greater; most friends find it difficult to convince themselves to trust their judgments.

Especially believing in the first type of judgments, directional choices. The most intuitive example is the current huge AI bubble, but there will still be people choosing to charge ahead, such as the market value of Changxin Storage; including Nvidia and this year’s SpaceX, Lao Cui has almost always warned three months in advance about these investment attributes, yet there are still people getting trapped. The core of the warning for SpaceX was that the issue price was somewhat too high; Lao Cui's internal expectation was around 100, and after a series of mergers, the price was maintained high, but the value before the mergers could not reach a per-share price of 135. Buying around 200 is purely a matter of personal faith. Just to mention, Lao Cui did not buy in; the information concept did not keep up, and seeing the issue price did indeed make him hesitate. Psychological construction requires compensation from experience; indeed losing more can improve psychological endurance. Secondly, talking more with Lao Cui might also strengthen everyone's faith.

Lao Cui summarizes: The bull market of October 25 is closely related to Binance; the core of the explosion is also due to the platform's issues, including the presence of staking, and during this period, Binance has always maintained a state of selling, which does not include CZ's data. The 120K to 80K range of selling is the most obvious, coupled with certain confiscated realizations, leading to this drop depth becoming lower and lower. The risks at the end of the year must also be considered; many countries will settle the previous year’s confiscations at the end of the year, and once this coincides with interest rate hikes, it can be a regular sell-off. Those interested in the data can check; certain places still have a basis. The overall rhythm will definitely not see major growth this year; Lao Cui has also provided the high-end estimate at the range of 92-07, while the low-end discussed earlier around 60-70K will still exist as long as the rate hike cycle is ongoing. Especially for contract users, watching the staking data of a certain platform can also inspire some operational ideas; this is also the most straightforward method and extremely practical. Spot market users should grasp this opportunity well; after the interest rate hike cycle ends, there will definitely be no further opportunity for you to enter!

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