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During the holiday these days, the market has been declining consistently, as mentioned in the last live stream. Recently, I've seen many people discussing the Token2049 conference; today, let’s talk about my observations from the conference. Let's officially start today's content.

After attending this conference, I have a clear sense: in the absence of rigid regulatory constraints, directly treating large models as the主体 of funding decisions eliminates illusionary problems. In the past, when quantitative AI platforms collaborated with KOLs, there have been instances of running away, so everyone must remain vigilant. Large models may fabricate market logic, misinterpret market trends, overestimate opportunities, and underestimate risks. This illusion will continue to accumulate, and once real funds are involved, the resulting drawdowns could be devastating.

This does not mean that large models are entirely useless; they are suitable for auxiliary work: gathering news, organizing on-chain data, generating research summaries, and performing information extraction. Acting as a research assistant is completely feasible, but they absolutely cannot independently bear the decision-making for funding trading. Most agent projects in this conference are essentially just large models wrapped in narratives; the underlying technology remains the outdated fixed indicator robots. Let me ask everyone, has anyone here used AI quantitative or arbitrage tools before?

From the distribution of tracks at this Token2049, one can actually see the current market conditions: the industry has moved away from the pure speculation of the early bull market and entered a mixed financial phase where traditional finance and crypto native markets converge. Funds are no longer blindly chasing new concept public chains or MEME coins; the focus of institutions is shifting towards financial infrastructure that can be implemented and has real cash flows: RWA assets, stablecoins, derivative markets, automated trading tools. The distribution of tracks at this conference is the most intuitive reflection of fund preferences.

The conference also highlighted the correction of industry consensus: more and more institutional buyers realize that general large models cannot be directly treated as trading decision makers. AI is suitable for information extraction and research assistance; real fund placing orders, position management, and extreme risk isolation must rely on a rigid regulatory framework that is auditable and has fail-safe protocols. On one side are aging static parameter quantitative robots, and on the other are narratively glamorous but impractical AI agent projects, showcasing a clear polarization. By the way, this year, SUI's advertising in the conference was quite aggressive.

After discussing the conference, let's get into some market insights. During the conference, BTC fell back into the range of 80,000-83,000, which is very normal; it generally drops during every conference, and altcoins follow suit. Every time during live streams, friends ask: I’ve been waiting with an empty position, expecting 60,000 for 50,000, 70,000 for 60,000, 80,000 for 70,000, and the more I wait, the more anxious I become. The current state of not being able to move up or down is most uncomfortable: fearing that if it jumps from 80,000 to 100,000, I'll miss out, while also fearful it might drop back to 60,000 and get trapped.

Let's look back at an example: In February 2026, Binance's SAFU fund bought 1 billion USD worth of BTC when the market continued to decline and confidence was severely lacking, with an average cost of around 69,200 USD. After that, market confidence slowly began to recover. So there's no need to fuss; just gradually accumulate positions in each decline. Short-term contract trades can be set aside for now; there hasn’t been any strong market catalysts recently, making short-term trades less advantageous.

During the holiday these past few days, there was capital increasing positions at the 83,000 level.

Today, I also noticed smart money closing short positions on-chain. The US government accounts have been quite active recently; I am unsure what they are up to, which has also brought some panic to the market. If you are placing orders, keep a closer watch on our large order indicators. You might also want to refer to ETF dynamics; the net inflow during these holiday days hasn’t matched the outflows from just yesterday.

Every cycle's rhythm follows this pattern: Bitcoin moves first → major coins recover → Bitcoin high-level consolidation, altcoin rotation → funds’ risk appetite recovers → finally spills over to the first-level altcoins. During the holiday these days, Bitcoin has been moving sideways and declining without prompting the altcoins; project parties and market makers are busy attending events. We probably have to wait until next week for any significant movements since the conference has not completely ended yet.

The market does not reward you for holding on longer simply because you persist. ETH, wheat, or any other asset, ultimately are merely vessels for narratives, liquidity, and capital rotation. What is truly important always boils down to three things: how much you've made, how much you've retained, and how much return you've gained for these risks taken. Everyone can definitely buy gradually during dips, no rush.
Let’s talk about opportunities in gold.

At the level of 4000, I mentioned this frequently in the last two weeks; now it’s almost time to start paying attention. Recently, the downturn in gold has experienced a daily drop that is extremely rare in the past 20 years. Since 2006, the average daily increase of gold has been around 0.05%, standard deviation 1.19%, with this drop corresponding to a Z value of -2.90, already in the extreme left tail of the returns distribution. This opportunity was pointed out at the end of September, and the second wave has now begun.

So regarding gold, it is advisable to start gradually positioning yourself. The most concerning aspect of trading is chasing highs and picking bottoms; at this position, slowly adding to your position is not a big deal. Just be extra cautious with short-term contracts, especially the fear of a black swan event occurring in the early morning.

Let me emphasize a frequently discussed but very important point: liquidity depth, which is especially critical for friends who often trade contracts. Imagine your next contract order gets executed at a different price than you anticipated, or even has slippage; this essence indicates the exchange lacks sufficient liquidity, facilitating higher-priced orders onto your execution, directly increasing your cost. During rapid price surges or declines, whether the market can handle the orders differs significantly between exchanges, even if the transaction volumes appear similar.

We have also prepared an on-chain data survey, a deep report from CoinGecko, which friends in need can retrieve: https://www.coingecko.com/learn/why-liquidity-depth-matters-more-than-trading-volume The better the market condition, the more critical it is to look at transaction depth; don’t rely on false prosperity inflated by activity rewards.

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In fact, when trading, there’s no need to be greedy; if you can capture the strongest currencies in mainstream hot sectors, the profits from a whole market cycle can already be very considerable. Moreover, when the market starts to rotate, even if some sectors are resting, there will usually be one or two in your portfolio that continue to rise. A major mistake many make during a bull market is swapping assets at the worst timing. Seeing other coins rise can make one hesitant to hold on, but when you chase after, they might start to rest; conversely, the one you sold may begin to recover. After several back and forth movements, while the overall market experiences substantial gains, you are left with minimal profits. Thus, everyone can save popular or trending tokens in advance, and QNT is also one to pay attention to this round.

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