Yesterday, the overall trend of Bitcoin basically matched the previous short-term judgment, with several downward tests during the day, all reaching the previously indicated profit-taking area.

From the hourly chart perspective, on the evening of the 27th, Bitcoin attempted to rise multiple times around 85,100 but failed to break through, and then began to retreat. The first round of decline saw the lowest point touch around 82,600, followed by a quick reversal; the second downward probe came to around 82,500, and then the price rebounded again to around 83,800.

However, the rebound never managed to regain a foothold above 84,000, nor did it reach the replenishment position near 84,500, ultimately leading to another price retreat.

Therefore, looking at the entire operation process from yesterday, the bears still held a certain initiative in the short term.

1. Hourly Chart: High Points Continue to Decline, Short-Term Remains Weak

The most critical area to watch on the hourly chart is around 82,500.

Yesterday, the price rebounded from 82,500 to around 84,300, but this high was clearly lower than previous peaks. The later rebound in the early hours only reached around 83,600, after which the price fell again.

This means that the hourly chart currently displays a quite obvious characteristic:

High points keep decreasing, and the price continues to approach previous low points.

Under this structure, the bears remain more proactive in the short term.

However, it is essential to note that the area around 82,500 is also close to a critical Fibonacci support zone, so this is not a position to directly conclude "must break below."

Next, we first need to observe the support strength of 82,500.

If the price can maintain support here and repair upwards again, then there is still room for a short-term rebound; conversely, if 82,500 effectively breaks down, the next level to watch will be around 81,000.

2. 4-Hour Chart: Double Top Retreat Structure Still Exists, High Points Clearly Declining

From the 4-hour perspective, the previously formed double top structure near 87,300 is still influencing the market.

The price previously attempted to approach near 87,300 twice but couldn't break through further, subsequently breaking below the important support at around 85,100.

Especially after breaking below 85,100, subsequent rebounds never managed to regain this position.

This indicates that the core features of the 4-hour chart are still:

High points declining, rebounds under pressure, with the retreat structure dominating.

The previous range of 82,800—85,200 was an essential oscillation area, and after breaking below this zone, the price has now moved into the lower half of the range.

Therefore, the 4-hour chart currently resembles a weak oscillation structure.

If 82,500 continues to lose support, the weak structure may extend further down; if 82,500 holds and regains 83,500 or even 84,000, then the short-term structure could improve.

3. Daily Chart: Short-Term Weakening, But Larger Structure Not Completely Damaged

The daily chart needs to be treated differently.

Currently, while the price has shown a significant retreat, it still operates above the critical position of 82,200—82,300.

From the previous low near 57,000, the market gained support again near 74,900 after a round of increases, then rebounded all the way to 87,300.

And 87,300 broke through the previous important high point.

So, the current retreat can essentially still be understood as:

A retracement after a breakout.

As long as 82,200—82,300 is not effectively breached, the upward structure previously formed on the daily chart has not been completely damaged.

Therefore, it cannot be simply concluded that the daily chart has entered a trend decline just because of short-term weakness.

However, the support near 82,800 has indeed faced a certain level of impact, and the short-term structure is noticeably weaker than before.

4. 84,000 is a Crucial Position for the Daily Chart to Regain Strength

From the Fibonacci structure perspective, the area around 84,000 is very critical.

Previously, after breaking through, the price is now retesting this position.

If it can regain a foothold above 84,000 and stabilize, then this correction can more easily be understood as a normal repair in the upward process.

Conversely, if the price consistently fails to regain 84,000 and continues to test downward towards 82,500, the short-term pressure will further increase.

So, currently, two areas can be focused on:

Below: Around 82,500.

Above: Around 83,800—84,000.

These two positions essentially determine the next step's direction in the short term.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, unblocking ideas and market practical knowledge, scan the code to follow the public account"Bitcoin Clear Sky",enter the community to get strategies!

5. Weekly Chart: Large Cycle Still in the Background of Rebound

Compared to the hourly and 4-hour charts, the weekly chart's status is clearly not as weak.

Previously, the rebound that began near 74,900 pushed the price above 87,300 and also surpassed the previous important high.

Although last week left a significant upper shadow after peaking, and this week the price also showed a pullback, it cannot be simply determined that the weekly trend has reversed based solely on this round of pullback.

In other words:

Short-term is pulling back, mid-term is still in the repair structure, and the large cycle has not shown a complete turn to bearish yet.

This is also the most crucial point that needs to be distinguished in the current analysis.

It cannot be assumed that because the hourly and 4-hour charts are weak, all the cycles must be defined as downtrends.

6. Moving Averages and BBA: Short-Term Pressure Clearly Increasing

From the BBA perspective, the hourly chart has repeatedly failed to stabilize after breaking through, and the price has returned below the BBA.

Currently, the hourly BBA is around 83,200, which is also a noticeable pressure area in the short term.

The 4-hour chart shows a similar situation.

The price briefly rebounded to the BBA but did not establish an effective stability, then fell again.

Thus, the 4-hour BBA still exerts suppressive influence, and around 83,500 has become a key pressure area to observe in the short term.

On the daily chart, the price has returned below the 5-day and 7-day moving averages, indicating that the short-term upward momentum is weakening.

However, the daily BBA and the 20-day moving average have not been completely compromised yet.

Therefore, the conclusion from the moving average system remains:

Short-term is weakening, but the mid-term structure has not been fully compromised.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, unblocking ideas and market practical knowledge, scan the code to follow the public account"Bitcoin Clear Sky",enter the community to get strategies!

7. Bollinger Bands: Hourly and 4-Hour Charts Re-enter Weak Areas

On the hourly chart, a rapid decline previously occurred, briefly breaking below the lower Bollinger band, followed by a price rebound.

However, after rebounding to the middle band or even upper band, the price ultimately fell again, breaking below the middle band once more.

Currently, the hourly middle band is around 83,200—83,300, resonating with the pressure from the BBA.

The 4-hour chart similarly shows a clear pattern.

The price briefly stood above the middle band but did not form an effective breakthrough and has now returned to near the lower band.

Thus, the current repairing strength on the 4-hour chart remains limited.

However, the daily and weekly charts are still operating above the middle band, indicating that the larger cycles have not comprehensively turned weak yet.

8. MACD: Short-Term Bearish Momentum is Increasing

In terms of MACD, the hourly chart previously formed a golden cross below the zero line, leading to a rebound, but has now formed a death cross again.

This indicates that the earlier rebound momentum has significantly weakened.

The 4-hour MACD is also weak.

After the earlier death cross, the price gradually fell below the zero line, and the bearish energy bars began to expand. Although there was some degree of contraction during this phase, the upward momentum has not been effectively sustained.

Currently, the daily MACD has also just formed a death cross.

It is essential to note that the daily death cross has just formed, and cannot simply use this signal to conclude that the market will soon enter a downward trend.

However, given the previous price's new highs without a corresponding new high in MACD momentum, there is indeed a certain divergence background.

Thus, the upward momentum on the daily chart is weakening, and this needs to be kept in mind.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, unblocking ideas and market practical knowledge, scan the code to follow the public account"Bitcoin Clear Sky",enter the community to get strategies!

9. Open Interest: Rebound Lacks Continuity

From the perspective of open interest, during yesterday's price decline, the open interest once showed an increase.

But then when the price rebounded, the open interest did not continue to increase and instead showed a certain degree of retreat.

This indicates that the current rebound is not particularly strong in terms of continuity.

Especially during the subsequent rebound process, although the price showed some repair, total open interest did not synchronously increase significantly.

Therefore, there are currently no strong signs of new funds driving the price upward.

This also resonates to some extent with the weak structures in the hourly and 4-hour charts.

10. Fibonacci: 82,500 Remains the Key Defensive Level in the Short Term

From the Fibonacci perspectives across different cycles, they can currently be simply divided into several levels.

On the hourly chart, mainly observe the ultra-short-term structure;

On the 4-hour chart, observe medium-short-term main support and resistance;

On the daily chart, observe larger upward structures;

On the weekly chart, observe the entire large cycle bull market structure.

Currently, the Fibonacci support at the 4-hour level is still near 82,500, and the price is repeatedly contending around this position.

Therefore, 82,500 is one of the positions that need the most attention right now.

If it can be sustained here, the price still has the potential for rebound repair.

But if 82,500 is effectively breached, then the short-term structure will further weaken, and the next step will need to focus on the area near 81,000.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, unblocking ideas and market practical knowledge, scan the code to follow the public account"Bitcoin Clear Sky",enter the community to get strategies!

11. Today's Core Idea

When looking at all cycles together, the current situation is actually very clear.

The hourly chart is weak, the 4-hour chart is weak, the daily chart is weakening in the short term, but the large structure has not been completely damaged, and the weekly chart is still in a rebound background.

Therefore, this is not a structure where all cycles resonate downward entirely.

In the short term, the bears indeed hold a certain advantage.

Especially after the early morning rebound, the price did not manage to regain a foothold in the 83,500—84,000 area, and the 4-hour BBA, middle band and other positions were not effectively reclaimed, with high points continuing to decline.

Thus, today the short-term still needs to be focused on preventing a continuous test of 82,500.

If 82,500 can endure after repeated testing without breaking down, and a significant bottoming reversal occurs, then there is still observation value for short-term long positions here.

But if 82,500 is effectively broken, it won't be suitable to easily regard this area as support for long positions.

On the upside, pay close attention to 83,200, 83,500, and the area between 83,800—84,000.

Especially at 84,000, if it can be stabilized later, the nature of this round of correction may shift back to a repair in the upward process.

Conversely, if it cannot regain 84,000 and the price continues to be under pressure, then the short-term weak structure will continue.

So the two most critical positions right now are below 82,500 and above 84,000.

82,500 determines whether the short-term support is effective, and 84,000 determines whether the rebound can regain strength.

Until there is a clear breakthrough at these two positions, the market is better observed according to ranges and structures rather than simply defining short-term pullbacks as a reversal of the larger cycle trend.

Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnostics, unblocking ideas and market practical knowledge, scan the code to follow the public account"Bitcoin Clear Sky",enter the community to get strategies!

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