Last week's weekly candlestick left a clear upper shadow, but the solid bullish candle still dominates, and the weekly line center of gravity continues to rise. Since breaking through the key structure of the weekly chart, the market has not truly retraced during several adjustments, and every time the price approaches important support, we can see funds quickly stepping in without obvious panic selling.
The biggest characteristic now is: the trend has not been broken, but short-term operations are becoming increasingly difficult.
The Fear and Greed Index remains around 74, and the market is still in the greedy area. A heated sentiment means that bulls hold the advantage, but it also indicates that the cost-effectiveness of chasing higher prices at the current position is declining.
BTC and ETH have now obviously entered a low volatility compression phase. It's difficult for the 1-hour and 2-hour charts to form a sustained trend, with price movements mostly exhibiting back-and-forth fluctuations. Especially the Bollinger Bands of ETH continue to tighten, and the moving averages are highly correlated; this state usually won't last for a long time.
Therefore, today's core idea remains:
Short-sell at high in the box and long at low, do not chase before a breakout; after a genuine volume breakout of the range, switch to trend thinking.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: temporarily watch for fluctuations, overall structure is strong, short-term wait for a breakout.
BTC currently belongs to a typical trend continuation compression structure.
The price still runs above the main medium to long-term moving averages, indicating that the previous upward structure has not been significantly damaged, but short-cycle momentum has become neutral, and the market is digesting previous gains through sideways movements.
The 7-day SMA is about 84957, which is currently slightly above the price, indicating that short-term funds are more inclined to wait for a retracement to step in rather than directly chasing higher at elevated levels.
In terms of derivatives, there has also been noteworthy differentiation:
Some large funds still lean towards bullish positions, but retail investors have a strong willingness to sell.
This funding divergence means that the short term may still go through a round of upward and downward cleaning before determining the real direction.
Thus, 85048 remains the first major resistance. If it can establish itself with volume, the next level to focus on is 86028; after further breaking through, 88158 becomes the more significant target pressure.
On the downside, 84000—83000 constitutes the current main support area.
Support: 84000, 83528, 83000
Resistance: 85048, 86028, 88158
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: extreme compression, short at high, long at low, focus on waiting for directional breakout.
The degree of compression for ETH is even more evident than for BTC.
The overall amplitude of the recent 30 candlesticks is only about 2.76%, with MA5 around 2688 and MA20 around 2688.39, showing that the two moving averages nearly coincide, indicating a high concentration of short-cycle long and short costs.
This low volatility + extreme intertwining of moving averages structure is essentially accumulating new volatility.
The direction has not yet been clearly confirmed, but once the price truly leaves the current box, the speed of subsequent price movements may significantly increase.
From a larger structural perspective, ETH still leans towards strength. The previously resistance zone of 2560—2660 has gradually transformed into support, with the weekly RSI staying in a strong area and the MACD just having turned bullish again, though current momentum is still limited.
Therefore, it can be understood as:
Bulls have a slight advantage, but still need a genuine breakout candlestick with volume to confirm.
The current position is not suitable for frequently opening orders in the middle of the box; it is better to wait for signals around the support at 2680 or the resistance zone of 2725—2765.
Support: 2680, 2648 (to be confirmed), 2613
Resistance: 2698, 2725, 2742, 2765
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