The current price of Bitcoin is approximately $84,350, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations over the weekend, repeatedly hovering around $84,000. As we enter a new week, macroeconomic negative factors are intensifying, and there is a high probability that the market will show a drop followed by a rise trend. This week, we should focus closely on two core data points.
This Week's Core Macroeconomic Variables
September 30 (Wednesday) U.S. AugustCore PCE Price Index
The market expects the core PCE to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in July. If the final data exceeds expectations, market expectations for an interest rate hike in October will rise quickly, which will put short-term pressure on Bitcoin.
October 2 (Friday) U.S. SeptemberNon-Farm Payroll Report
The market anticipates the number of new jobs to drop from 162,000 to a range of 90,000 to 100,000, and the strength of the employment data will directly affect expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Four-Hour Volume Structure Observations
Since September 23, short seller trading volume has briefly surged, but there is insufficient sustainability. Currently, both long and short trading volumes are basically in a balanced state, and the market's deleveraging process is entering its final stages. However, due to pessimistic expectations, the willingness of bulls to enter is relatively weak and lacking in confidence, with many bulls temporarily choosing to stand aside and observe.
On-Chain Data Observations
ETF Funds: There has been a net inflow for seven consecutive trading days, with a cumulative inflow of about $3 billion, setting a record for the highest weekly inflow since October 2025; however, the pace of funds has significantly slowed, with the daily average net inflow dropping from $999 million to $135 million, indicating weakened short-term buying momentum. Institutional funds continue to position around the $80,000 range, providing bottom support for this round of healthy correction.
Chip Distribution: Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to decline, with both whales and retail investors increasing their holdings simultaneously. Miners sold nearly 20,000 BTC during the rebound on September 21, which is seen as profit-taking behavior rather than a trend-based sell-off.
Personal Opinion
The bear market has ended, and the bull market has officially begun, currently in the early stages of the bull market. The previous round of price increases accumulated a significant amount of profit-taking, and the market needs a healthy correction to digest floating profits, release trapped positions, and squeeze out market leverage. The short-term price does not have the conditions for sustained increases; a preliminary decline to solidify the base will open up larger upward space afterward. I personally predict that Bitcoin may pull back to around $80,000.
This decline is an opportunity for correction in the bull market, not a signal of a bear market reversal.
Our circle has been operating for its seventh year. From the earliest knowledge sphere, to the current community, I do not want to limit myself. In the future, the content of the circle will continue to expand, covering the U.S. market; If one day the Bitcoin market ends and new opportunities arise, we will strive to be among the first to seize them. Investment should have a global perspective and multiple avenues to lay a solid foundation.
⚠️ Personal opinion sharing, does not constitute any investment advice. The circle is paid; friends interested in joining can add my personal WeChat: hanson1658. (Note: Only plan to add friends after joining the circle)
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