On September 27, NEAR, which has long been on the periphery of the U.S. regulatory landscape, was unexpectedly thrust into the spotlight. The NYSE Arca announced the approval of the Bitwise NEAR Protocol spot ETF listing, with the code NRR. This is the first ETF product in the U.S. to directly hold NEAR in spot form, with a management fee of 0.75% (according to a single source). Custody and staking services are provided by Coinbase Custody, and the NEAR held at the ETF level will be uniformly staked to generate on-chain yields. Supporting this product is a roughly 39-page NEAR investment report released simultaneously by Bitwise, co-authored by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, which presents a benchmark price target of $155 for NEAR by 2030 and an extreme scenario price target of $562 (according to a single source), attempting to establish a long-term valuation narrative far exceeding the current market pricing. After the announcement, according to a single source, the price of NEAR briefly surged to around $5, but the specific listing date for NRR has not yet been disclosed. The real tension surrounding this new "compliant NEAR exposure" channel currently focuses on one question: who will pay for the valuation story that Bitwise has painted against the huge expectations gap between the current price and the long-term targets.

The First NEAR Spot ETF: The End of the Grayscale Era?

Before the buyers of this "valuation story" surface, it's essential to return to a long-overlooked reality: prior to the appearance of NRR, U.S. funds wanting NEAR exposure within a compliant framework could only reroute through Grayscale NEAR Trust. NEAR has long occupied a relatively marginal position in the U.S. regulatory product landscape, so Grayscale Trust played the role of "the only option" for a considerable period—regardless of whether this was the most ideal allocation method for institutions, it effectively monopolized compliant NEAR exposure. Due to the singular nature of this channel, the market's perception of NEAR remained largely at the level of "another trust share under Grayscale," rather than as an independent sector that could actively be included in an asset allocation framework.

This pattern saw a critical fissure on September 27. After Bitwise submitted the final prospectus for the NEAR spot ETF, the NYSE Arca approved the product for listing, under the code NRR, described as the first NEAR Protocol spot ETF in the U.S. This means NEAR officially enters the toolset of traditional securities markets in the compliant form of a "spot ETF," providing institutions and compliant funds with a new option outside of Grayscale Trust. Although the specific listing date has not yet been announced, prior to the actual launch of NRR, Grayscale NEAR Trust remains the principal vehicle for existing holdings. However, from the perspective of product narrative and psychological expectations, NEAR has already been placed in a distinctly different position—what will be observed next is whether institutions gradually diminish their reliance on Grayscale Trust as trading for NRR begins, shifting the main battlefield of NEAR exposure to this spot ETF.

Coinbase Staking NEAR: ETF Directly Connected to the Chain

NRR truly connects traditional securities accounts to the NEAR chain, starting from the custody aspect. According to the offering materials, Coinbase Custody is responsible for the custody and staking of NRR, where the underlying assets are not abstract "NEAR exposure" but a batch of NEAR tokens recorded at chain addresses. As a public chain that adopts a PoS mechanism, NEAR allows token holders to participate in staking to earn network rewards. Coinbase Custody will stake these NEAR tokens on behalf of the ETF, allowing a product listed on the NYSE to directly participate in the operation of the NEAR network. According to a single source, the management fee for NRR is 0.75%, which, under a compliant framework, means packaging custody, staking capabilities, and information disclosure of on-chain assets into a standardized financial product for a fixed fee. Investors acquire indirect rights to NEAR holdings and staking by buying the stock code NRR, while how the staking yields are processed at the fund level remains to be disclosed later.

More worth questioning is whether the risk and power structures at the protocol level will be quietly rewritten when compliant custodial institutions replace numerous retail wallets to centralize the staking of NEAR. Under the PoS system, staking weight is related both to security and to governance voting power; if the ETF grows in scale and staking nodes are controlled by a few custodians, it could theoretically amplify the influence of certain entities in consensus and governance. Currently, we do not know the initial scale of NRR and Coinbase's share in the total NEAR network staking; these variables will determine whether this is merely a convenient entry for compliant funds to "touch the chain" or if it will gradually change NEAR's security landscape and governance ecology. This requires long-term tracking and careful observation between subsequent on-chain data and product expansion.

$155 to $562: Bitwise's Valuation Gamble

To solidify the "story foundation" for this newly approved NEAR spot ETF, Bitwise did not rely solely on a prospectus. According to publicly available materials, they simultaneously released a lengthy NEAR investment report of about 39 pages to support the product's research, which notes participation by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan (according to a single source). This report does not simply list on-chain data or fundamental items but attempts to construct a valuation narrative framework for NEAR through 2030 along a temporal dimension.

Within this framework, Bitwise provides two highly tensioned scenarios: under the benchmark scenario, the target price for NEAR in 2030 is projected to be $155; under the extreme scenario, it is pushed to $562 (according to a single source). When comparing these two scenarios to the current price, one can intuitively feel Bitwise's "gamble" in narrative: on one side is an already approved compliant product, and on the other is a long-term high-multiple expectation stretched out over six years, aiming to attract today's attention with mid- to long-term imagination.

However, such scenario projections are fundamentally research hypotheses, not any form of price commitment. Whether it's the $155 "benchmark" or the $562 "extreme," both are built on multiple uncertainties: can the regulatory environment continue to accommodate such assets, can NEAR's own technology and ecosystem realize the so-called growth potential, will compliant funds really adopt such new products on a large scale—no one can provide definite answers to these premises. Bitwise aims to package these assumptions into visualized numerical ranges with a substantial report, intending to pull NEAR from "marginal asset" into the research perspective of traditional asset management institutions, and for investors, this set of seemingly high targets is better suited as a starting point for understanding the product narrative rather than as simple replicate results.

Bitwise vs. Grayscale: The Battle for NEAR Exposure Begins

Before the emergence of NRR, the Grayscale NEAR Trust was almost the "default NEAR exposure" in the U.S. market, yet it fundamentally remains a non-exchange-traded trust product, serving qualified investors who are willing to accept liquidity and premium constraints. Bitwise has chosen to list the NEAR spot ETF on NYSE Arca, shifting the compliant exposure of this same asset class from an over-the-counter trust to the trading board: the code, management fee rate, and prospectus are all institutionalized for presentation, and the held NEAR is managed and staked by Coinbase Custody. For the first time, NEAR enters the U.S. regulatory framework as a "tradeable, staked spot ETF." For NEAR, this is not just another product; it's a transformation from an invisible supporting tool for underlying assets to an independent asset that can be directly searched and compared on the exchange screen.

The real competition, however, occurs in "who will explain NEAR." Grayscale relies on its long-standing brand and existing trust to secure its position as the gateway to traditional crypto baskets, while Bitwise uses a newly launched spot ETF coupled with a roughly 39-page NEAR investment report, attempting to simultaneously occupy both research and product high ground—the ETF turns NEAR into a "slot" within compliant portfolios, while the report fills in the target price range and narrative tag for this slot through 2030. Since key comparative data such as the scale and rates of Grayscale NEAR Trust and NRR are currently still unavailable, the outcome between the two in terms of NEAR exposure has yet to reach a numerical adjudication phase. However, from the perspective of discourse power and investor psychology, the competition of "who will price NEAR and who will endorse NEAR" has already effectively begun.

Listing Approaches: How Compliant ETFs Reshape NEAR Expectations

From Grayscale NEAR Trust to the approval of NRR, the compliant exposure of NEAR in the U.S. market is undergoing a generational transition: what used to be more marginalized trust shares is now the first NEAR spot ETF recognized by NYSE Arca, a product form that can be included in mainstream portfolios and accepted by institutional compliance processes. More critically, NRR does not merely "move" NEAR into the exchange; it also stakes held NEAR through Coinbase Custody, incorporating on-chain yield earnings into the ETF framework and directly linking on-chain yields with compliant tools. Meanwhile, Bitwise adds a medium- to long-term valuation narrative to this compliant product with an almost 39-page report and target price scenarios of $155 and $562 for 2030, connecting quantifiable on-chain staking yields with a high long-term assumption range to create a dual narrative of "on-chain yields + compliant valuation narrative." What truly needs to be continuously tracked next are the yet-to-be-announced official listing timeframe for NRR, the market's acceptance of these pricing assumptions post-listing, and whether the NEAR ecosystem experiences new application interactions and narrative adjustments under the support of compliant products. In the current context of a lack of quantitative fund data, these variables will determine whether NRR serves as a short-term emotional catalyst or a lasting pivot point in NEAR's long-term expectation structure.

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