To discuss the overall trend, today let's talk about the short-term movement, as Lao Cui's articles focus more on spot users. The cyclicality of spot often remains within a controllable range, and this control is not due to Lao Cui's efforts, but because the trend of Bitcoin itself is in an upward phase. Regardless of when purchased, there are opportunities for profit with Bitcoin. Factors that can influence short-term movements, as seen in the current data by Lao Cui, show that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has reached 5.23%, a new high since 2007, which is a significant bearish indicator. Among numerous global bonds, the U.S. 10-year Treasury is considered the benchmark for the "risk-free rate" due to its extremely high liquidity and credibility. When the 10-year yield exceeds 5%, global capital will consider whether to allocate? And this consideration is not whether it is worth buying but rather how much to allocate? Typically, substantial funds will flow in, and most of the interested clients are commercial banks.

What signal does the released data convey? It suggests that capital will continue to flow in and remains in the consideration phase. Let's also take a look at the timeline; a new high since 2007, and I believe everyone has a unique understanding of the year 2007 in the financial sector. At least this news, along with the timeline, gives Lao Cui a feeling of some fear, which originates from historical data. Remember, the foreign financial crisis officially began in 2007, and it transmitted to the domestic market in 2008, with a one-year time lag in between. The current financial system has no time lag; of course, this is not a conclusion but just a comparative analysis of the data. So far, there has not yet been a trend of capital choosing U.S. Treasury bonds, but this probability is continuously increasing, and the U.S. stock market performance remains relatively strong. In their view, the current stock market performs better than the returns on Treasury bonds, and the danger is that the yield on Treasury bonds continues to rise, and it is worth researching where the specific critical point lies.

Lao Cui summarizes: This is not about spreading panic; it is merely a data comparison. Recent activities by the U.S. show that interest rate hikes are clearly a reluctant choice; however, this path of interest rate hikes might lead to the abandonment of the AI market, and combined with recent hype, AI may start to hide or attack, which then causes research and development to stagnate; this narrative still presents a bearish display. Meanwhile, do not take every windfall as a rainstorm; this does not signify the end of the cryptocurrency market. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer: A new bull market for Bitcoin has begun, with a target price of $300,000 by 2029; Lao Cui also believes this news, but the timeline for 2029 is ample. The cyclicality of the cryptocurrency market continues to shorten; even if there is a subsequent plunge or panic sell-off, the recovery ability is quite strong; reaching this price by 2029 seems like a reasonable valuation to Lao Cui. A price of $300,000 gives a total market cap of only $6.3 trillion, and it's not difficult for the overall market cap of the cryptocurrency market to reach $10 trillion. Lao Cui personally estimates that the historical highs will surpass this figure significantly. The value of stablecoins has not yet unleashed its true potential; the cryptocurrency market is still a young market with enormous potential.

Since we are on this topic, Lao Cui also has some personal thoughts he wants to share; investment cannot be operated based on one’s own ideas. A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall, and the presentation of global data itself has significant issues; let alone the situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which even involves geopolitical conflicts, under these structures, the financial market finds it challenging to unleash its potential. What we see now is not cooperation but competition. Competition brings technological progress but also accompanies massive bubbles. The bursting of bubbles is beyond human control; if it were controllable, there would not be so many financial crises. The U.S. has abandoned several times: the internet bubble, Lehman Brothers, real estate, and even the anchoring of the dollar. If you aim for profit when entering the financial market, you must maintain a calm mind, always aligning with the prevailing circumstances. Before the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, Lao Cui was also optimistic, and he has ample confidence in next year’s prices. The global financial system is still predominantly led by the U.S.; their failure means the failure of the whole system. All industries related to the U.S. will be impacted; U.S. inflation is something that people in the financial sector need to bear the brunt of. Investors must always maintain a clear mind; there has never been a bull market during a cycle of rate hikes! As long as we are within this cycle, all positive news should be treated with caution and seen as traps!

Original article created by WeChat official account: On-Chain Science. For assistance, feel free to contact directly.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。