Today is Saturday, and we have entered a phase of relatively weak liquidity in the market. After the traditional markets consistently provide incremental trades, the market depth decreases, making it easier for small funds to push prices, so special precautions need to be taken against slow rising short squeezes, sudden spikes, and mutual liquidation.
Recently, the phase of easing trade tensions has provided some emotional support for risk markets, but the core contradiction in the market has not fundamentally changed:
The macro high interest rate environment limits the potential for upward movement, while institutions and spot funds continue to absorb, which in turn limits the depth of declines.
Therefore, even after a rapid correction earlier, market sentiment has not shown significant panic, and funds are still willing to absorb shares at key positions.
Weekend markets are particularly prone to a certain trend:
Small orders keep pushing higher → Bears are forced to stop loss → Prices slowly squeeze shorts → After hitting resistance, a sudden reversal occurs.
So today is not suitable for chasing long positions just because of a slow rise; it’s better to wait for clear signals from key resistance and support levels.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Range-bound volatility, primarily favoring short positions, with minor long positions.
After a quick drop from around 87400, BTC is now reorganizing around 84000.
The large-scale liquidation of long positions has already released some high-level leverage risks; currently, the funding rate has fallen to near neutral levels, indicating that the level of market congestion has significantly improved compared to previous peaks.
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour RSI has quickly dropped from the overbought zone, and short-term upward momentum has noticeably cooled. However, the price remains near the EMA30, and the medium-term upward structure has not fundamentally been damaged.
Therefore, it is more appropriate to define the current situation as:
Consolidation after a large rise, rather than a confirmed new round of one-sided declines.
Short-term focus on the 84680—84948 range. If the weekend continues to see slow uptrends through low liquidity but fails to break out on volume, then it’s necessary to be cautious of a repeat high and subsequent drop.
To truly regain strength, further recovery of 86000—86500 is needed.
Support: 83600, 83000
Resistance: 84680, 84948, 86000-86500
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: Volatility squeezing shorts, primarily favoring short positions, the current position is not suitable for continued shorting.
The previously high selling pressure for ETH has been validated, and it is now also in a technical repair phase after adjustment.
In the short cycle, the 1-hour and 2-hour charts already have conditions for a rebound, and the 4-hour chart is gradually entering a repair zone, so the cost-effectiveness of continuing to chase short positions is decreasing.
However, it is necessary to distinguish between "repair" and "reversal."
The adjustments on the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily charts have not completely ended, especially as the 12-hour MACD has recently shown a death cross, so even if there is a slow rise over the weekend, the priority remains to handle it according to the repair trend after a decline.
If the price rebounds to the 2700—2742 range and then starts to stagnate, it is still necessary to guard against bears regaining strength; if a pullback near 2650 can consistently receive absorption, then there is still a possibility for further short-term repair.
Support: 2650-2660, 2624
Resistance: 2700, 2742, 2770
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This article is originally published by 【Huying Community】 and represents personal views only. Due to certain delays in the information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and exercise caution in operations.
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