Let me give you all a heads up, I actually opened a short position when it was at 86,000, and stopped out at 87,000, just the day before yesterday. Now the market sentiment is too intense, I personally recommend prioritizing cash holdings. The opportunity to hit the 60,000 bottom is probably gone; I only consider opening contract positions in the 70,000 - 72,000 range as mentioned before. At this stage, cash is more stable.
With the current market dynamics, once there is an effective breakthrough, really don’t short anymore; the violent liquidation is really harsh. It directly cleared all the stubborn short positions in the 82k-87k range. After suffering a loss myself, I reflected: the current state of BTC is too typical: those who missed out are too afraid to chase, and those who are stuck in shorts still think about adding to their positions to lower costs — this is exactly what the main players love to see from retail traders. The real market is that BTC is breaking through multiple resistances and is about to stabilize above 86K. If it stabilizes successfully, the space above opens up to 85k-94k; one can say the market has entered a new stage.
If you still don't understand the rhythm, let’s take a step back and review two segments of price movement.
The first instance was in the 62,000-63,000 dollar range, which took a full 6 months, gradually accumulating chips from February to August. When the timing was ripe, it suddenly surged, and everyone hadn’t reacted yet; the price had already moved far from the cost area. The second time was in the 76,000-78,000 dollar range, this time it took only 28 days, quickly accumulating nearly 1.5 million chips due to market concerns about macro bearishness. Even now, 1.378 million BTC are still settled in the 62k-63k range, and 1.249 million in the 76k-78k range. Last week in the live stream, we were discussing the buy-in opportunity around 70k-72k, and now the sentiment has pulled up directly. You might consider getting in gradually, but remember not to enter contracts, save those for black swan events.
Currently, ZEC, UNI, LIT, ARB, and VVV have basically all skyrocketed.
PONS was also mentioned during the live broadcast in the 0.5-0.6 range; I must say it's truly a frenzy of altcoins. In the 2026 transition phase between bear and bull, the proportion of profits from short-term chips is particularly worth discussing; it serves as a barometer of market sentiment. We always look for signals from whales, but these sentiments themselves are the core drivers of short-term movements. Every past cycle has followed this logic; it's not a case of 'carving the boat to find the sword.'
The order of market rotation has always been very clear: Big coins move first → Mainstream coins correct → Big coins consolidate at high levels, secondary sectors rotate → Risk appetite of funds completely recovers → Finally spills over to first-tier altcoins. Many people say the altcoin season has arrived; in fact, one can look at the altcoin AKE. In these two weeks, the VVV, LIT, ZAMA, UNI, and ARB mentioned have started to lose money on the ZEC side; the beneficial effect of this chain has basically remained in the secondary market controlled by investors.
These weird coins all have their own genres. In the current altcoin market, the focus remains on public chains and new platform projects. Speaking of OKB and BNB, they have also risen nicely, which is the feeling a bull market should have.
Altcoins can only rise sharply in two environments: The first is when big coins embark on a main upward trend, with several consecutive up days directly lifting the entire market, causing altcoins to follow passively; the second is when big coins finish the main rise and are consolidating at high levels, with no risk of a downturn at that moment, which is when altcoin investors dare to take action. First-tier altcoins will still take longer; several conditions must be satisfied at the same time: big coins stabilize at high levels, market confidence recovers, secondary coins have already shown profit effects, and additionally, either the authorities make an announcement or a powerful pseudonymous investor forcibly elevates a recognizable target to ignite market sentiment.
By the way, do any friends in the live stream hold HYPE?
Looking at the daily chart of AKE, it’s clear that the market hasn’t finished its run, and there’s more to drop.
The "847" crowd are all seasoned players; in the first half of the year, trading these weird coins was mostly short-term trades, unable to hold for a day due to high volatility. Now it’s mostly more than 10 times leverage, no matter how large the margin, it’s easy to get liquidated.
A bull market is born in pessimism, grows in doubt, matures in optimism, and ends in excitement. Are both bulls and bears doubting now? At such times, it’s best to hold your ground and stay steady.
First, let’s discuss the US stock market and BTC. Before the upcoming China-US meeting this week, it is highly likely to maintain relative strength as the market is trading on policy expectations and improved risk appetite logic. It seems the meeting has already started today, but after the events actually unfold on Wednesday and Thursday, one should start to guard against the short-term “sell the news.” Especially if the end result merely meets expectations, without significant exceeding expectations, earlier profit takers will likely choose to cash out. I myself have scaled back on opening positions, and being stuck in the middle is uncomfortable. For those opening positions, do keep an eye on the smart money data, which is updated in real-time, as most of it is trend-based.
Outside the main market, I’ve previously discussed gold with friends in the live broadcast. In recent days, I even saw KOLs who were trapped still shouting hard. Looking back at early this year, gold's weekly chart had already given signals of entering an adjustment cycle. Currently, it seems cryptocurrency will exit the bear market ahead of gold because cryptocurrencies adjust before precious metals, and their adjustment time and depth lead gold; hence they will naturally exit the adjustment cycle sooner.
I reviewed the trading depth over the last 14 days, and Binance has better depth in leading spot markets, meaning there is more liquidity; OKX has more winning cases in mid-spot L1, especially with crude oil perpetual contracts; Gate's strong suit is more concentrated in contract markets and other token assets. The more mature the market, the more traders will gravitate toward platforms with enough depth. If the depth is not sufficient, a single larger order can distort the depth, mishandle funding rates, and sequentially liquidate leveraged positions; such products cannot last long. If anyone needs to check CoinGecko's depth report, feel free to look:
https://www.coingecko.com/learn/why-liquidity-depth-matters-more-than-trading-volume
In recent days, I’ve also been looking at relevant data on-chain, hoping it helps you all. The better the market conditions, the more important it is to pay attention to trading depth, rather than relying on artificially inflated volumes from promotional activities. Seizing the opportunity for a sudden surge in a weekend low liquidity environment once again drove prices quickly away from the cost area.
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We will wait for AKE to drop to the bottom before making decisions; it’s still early.
Let’s also remind about the advanced gameplay of Binance bStocks; newcomers who don’t know how to play can give it a try. Besides single stocks like Apple, NVIDIA, and Tesla, there are also ETF-type products like SPYB and QQQB. bStocks supports 24-hour trading, can be bought for as low as around 5 dollars, and can even be withdrawn to a BNB Smart Chain wallet. However, what we're building now is not a technology stock portfolio, but a permanent investment portfolio that is prepared to hold for many years. SPYB corresponds to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, and with a single purchase, you can cover about 500 large companies in the USA. No need to guess which company will become the next NVIDIA; regardless of who stands out, everyone can share in the rising dividends. QQQB can also be a supplement, but it is more concentrated on technology and growth stocks. If you really want to buy NVIDIA or Tesla, I would prefer to take out 5% from SPYB for individual stock positions rather than directly to replace the entire stock position.
SPYB covers the stock position, PAXG covers the gold position, and USDT and USDC are held in spot and investment, respectively, solving liquidity and yield issues. They can be managed within the same Binance account and wallet system, and you can even start with a small amount. Previously, in the cryptocurrency realm, long-term allocations often led to two extremes: either holding entirely in stablecoins while watching the market rise and miss out, or converting all funds into BTC and various altcoins, riding the market’s ups and downs daily. bStocks provided a third option: allowing US stocks, gold, and dollar-denominated assets to enter an on-chain portfolio together. There’s no need to predict the market daily; just manage those four positions well, then wait for the next rebalancing.
For US stocks, picking these few will actually suffice; alongside that, there’s big coins and new projects like HYPE to watch for more opportunities in this round.
Finally, let’s share some key points. Incremental capital is the straightforward mode; stock game is the difficult mode; capital outflow is the hell mode. These three dimensions can actually be combined with BTC ETF data, which I think can serve as a reference indicator.
The overall market essentially revolves around this logic. The current situation is that cash is more for long-term holding; in contrast, contracts suit short-term operations and need to consider fees, volatility, mainly margin issues. Funds lying idle do not count as the simple mode; they are just incremental reserves; certain issues cannot be resolved even by blue-chip protocols.
The Meme above RB is a multi-role solution covering volatility, attention, revenue, traffic, trading volume... It covers all aspects. So we can see that platforms capable of making money are essentially like gambling houses; HYPE, BNB, LIT are just like this. Previously, these types of assets had strong cyclical properties, but after encompassing all assets (stocks, cards), they have become full-cycle assets. There are Crypto Business which are money-making companies, and there are Meme, feeding on consensus and attention.
Now, everyone can look at targets like bStock, BTC, VVV, LIT, UNI, but those who are afraid of highs are all destined to suffer. UNI has already attracted a lot of interest; the cash situation is still good, and friends in the live stream were all buying in at 120,000. Gradually enter, don’t rush in; having positions gives you leverage.
If these two lines continue to resonate, RWA+Meme on Robinhood Chain may become one of the main lines of heat in the next chain wave. Robinhood may not have funds going as crazy as before, but there are still opportunities; be a friend of time.
That’s about it for today’s live content; perhaps there’s a lot of market news that’s all just bets. Friends who strike it lucky can also take a look at the main force's big order data.
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