🚨 PEPESuddenly Soared 40%! Whales, Funds, or FOMO, Who is the True Driving Force?
PEPE has really started moving this time.
On September 20, PEPE was still fluctuating around $0.000004, and the market was still discussing "who is buying during this wave of increase." But just a day later, the market suddenly accelerated.
On September 21, PEPE briefly surged to $0.00000515, with a daily increase of nearly 20%. It then continued to test the $0.00000515 area on September 22. According to CoinGecko data, PEPE rose from $0.00000341 at the close on September 16 to $0.00000477 on September 21, exceeding a 39% increase in just a few days. Meanwhile, on September 22, the 24-hour trading volume briefly exceeded $1 billion.
This raised a question back to the market:
This wave of PEPE's rise, was it the whales positioning in advance, or was it the sudden ignition of market sentiment?
More importantly, does this wave actually have a new logic of fund influx?
PEPE's sudden volume increase, market funds are once again focusing on meme coins
First, let's look at the most intuitive change: trading volume.
For the previous few days, PEPE's daily trading volume mostly stayed within the range of $200 million to $500 million, but as the price began to break through, trading activity rapidly expanded.
CoinGecko data shows that PEPE's trading volume was about $236 million on September 18, and rose to about $515 million on September 20; after a significant price breakout on September 21, market transactions continued to heat up. Data on September 22 indicated that PEPE's market capitalization had once again surpassed $2 billion, with the 24-hour trading volume exceeding $1 billion.
What does this mean?
It at least indicates that this is not simply a "price rising by itself" market.
More and more funds have started participating in PEPE trading.
Meme coins have a very special characteristic: they usually do not rise after a huge change in fundamentals, but become targets for funds seeking high elasticity when market risk appetite suddenly improves.
In simple terms:
BTC rebounds first, market risk appetite rises; then funds begin to look for high beta assets; meme coins become active; PEPE, with high liquidity and market recognition, quickly becomes the object of funds' attention.
Once the price breaks through key positions, the market can easily enter the second stage — FOMO.
This is also why PEPE has risen particularly quickly this time.
Is it really the whales that are crazily buying PEPE?
This is one of the most discussed statements in the market at present.
There have previously been many reports on social media about "whales massively buying PEPE," but this kind of information needs to be treated with caution.
Because "whale buying" does not equate to "a certain super institution is building a long-term position."
Real meaningful on-chain signals should include specific wallet addresses, transfer times, exchange inflows and outflows, and whether these addresses continue to increase their positions after the price rises.
In other words, a single on-chain transfer of tens of millions of dollars does not directly prove that it is a long-term bullish signal.
If funds are transferred from an exchange to a private wallet, it may indicate the holder's reduced willingness for short-term trading; but it may also just be asset reallocation between wallets.
Conversely, if PEPE continues to experience a net outflow from exchanges while whale addresses see their balances increase, and the price remains strong, this signal's reference value would significantly increase.
Therefore, rather than simply saying "whales are entering," it is better to focus on the truly observable data regarding on-chain fund direction.
This would be more meaningful than a line on social media saying "whales are shopping."
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The story of fund entry currently lacks key evidence
Apart from whales, another more eye-catching statement in the market is — funds are entering PEPE.
But here as well, we need to separate "rumors" and "facts."
Currently, there are indeed discussions about institutional products and fund applications related to PEPE in the market, but an application does not mean final approval, nor can it directly equal that funds have already invested large amounts in purchasing PEPE.
This is also a very common misconception in meme coin markets:
After the price rises, the market will actively seek a story to explain "why it has risen."
As a result, various explanations such as whales, funds, buybacks, and institutional positions begin to appear simultaneously.
However, if there are no official documents, on-chain addresses, or actual fund records, these messages should not be directly regarded as reasons for the rise.
Currently, more certain factors are actually the price breakout, increased trading volume, and improvement in overall market risk appetite.
PEPE buybacks may just be a story, and not already occurring fund flow
Another factor that the market frequently mentions is PEPE buybacks.
Theoretically, if the project party or community really conducts large-scale buybacks of PEPE, it may indeed reduce the circulating chips in the market and provide price support.
But the problem lies in:
"Proposing a buyback plan" and "completing a buyback" are completely different things.
If there is no clear execution time, buyback scale, and on-chain transaction records, then the market cannot simply treat buyback expectations as actual buy orders.
Especially for an asset like PEPE with a market capitalization exceeding $2 billion and a daily trading volume reaching the $1 billion level, the buyback scale that can truly have a sustained impact on price must be large enough.
So in the short term, buybacks seem more like a potential narrative rather than currently the most powerful price explanation.
What may have ignited PEPE is the risk appetite of the entire meme coin sector
If we pull back our view from PEPE itself, the situation is easier to understand.
CoinMarketCap's analysis of the market on September 21 shows that PEPE surged more than 20% during the 24 hours, significantly outperforming the overall market, primarily due to funds rotating towards high beta meme coin assets. Simultaneously, social media heat and technical breakthroughs further amplified retail buying.
This actually aligns very well with the trading logic of meme coins.
When the market is good, funds do not remain forever in BTC and ETH.
When mainstream assets have risen for a period, some short-term funds will begin looking for assets with higher volatility and elasticity.
Thus, funds begin to spread towards high beta assets like SOL, DOGE, and PEPE.
One of PEPE’s greatest advantages is that it does not require re-educating the market.
The vast majority of crypto traders are familiar with PEPE.
So when the market begins to seek meme coin opportunities, PEPE easily becomes one of the first assets that funds re-focus on.
This is also why PEPE’s speed of increase can be clearly faster than many traditional mainstream coins.
It is trading not just on price, but on market attention.
Once broken through, FOMO might become a new driving force
Another very typical feature of this round of PEPE’s market is:
The rise itself is creating new buying.
On September 16, PEPE closed at around $0.00000341, then continued to rebound, breaking through $0.000004 on September 19, and further surged to around $0.00000515 on September 21.
This means short-term traders will constantly see new signals:
Breaking through previous highs.
Increased trading volume.
Increased social media heat.
Higher market ranking.
Price continues to set new highs.
Thus, those who originally did not pay attention to PEPE might join the trading due to the sudden price surge.
This is the most typical positive feedback of meme coins:
Price rises lead to attention, attention leads to trading volume, trading volume pushes price, and price further generates FOMO.
But the same issue also arises here.
Positive feedback can make the market rise very quickly, but it can also lead to pullbacks just as quickly.
Technical signals have begun to show "strong but overheated" signs
Currently, what’s most worthy of attention regarding PEPE is not whether it has room to rise, but whether the rising speed is already too fast.
On September 21, PEPE broke through resistance at around $0.00000458 and briefly touched $0.00000515. Relevant technical analysis pointed out that the 4-hour RSI once reached about 82, which has entered a clearly overbought area.
This indicates that market sentiment is already very hot in the short term.
Strong trends do not automatically mean an immediate decline, but when a meme coin rises nearly 40% within a few days, the probability of profit-taking increases naturally.
Therefore, what needs to be observed next is "Can it stabilize after breaking through?".
$0.00000458 is a very important level.
If PEPE can consolidate above this area, and trading volume continues to remain high, then the previous resistance may gradually transform into new support.
However, if the price rapidly falls back below this level, then the market will need to reassess whether this breakout is a trend reversal or just a short-term emotional pulse.
Related technical analysis also views $0.00000431 as another support area worth observing; if these levels continue to fail, the price might seek lower liquidity areas again.
Thus, chasing PEPE now, and buying PEPE a few days ago, already follows entirely different trading logic.
PEPE is still far from its historical high, but that does not mean that the room for increase has been determined
Another piece of data that can easily excite the market:
PEPE is still very far from its historical peak.
After this round of increase, although PEPE has returned to a market capitalization of over $2 billion, it still exists a significant gap from its historical high.
Many traders see this and may first react:
"There's still such a large distance from the previous high, does that mean there is huge room for increase?"
But caution is necessary here.
The distance from the historical high does not automatically mean future challenges to the previous high.
What truly determines the price is whether there is enough new capital willing to continue giving PEPE a higher valuation.
Especially for meme coins, fundamental valuations are not the only factor.
Funds, liquidity, social media heat, and market sentiment often play a more crucial role than traditional fundamental indicators.
Therefore, whether PEPE can continue to strengthen in the future primarily hinges on whether the current heat of funds can persist.
What should the market truly focus on during this PEPE rise?
If we put all the confirmable information together, it can be seen that this round of market movement does not require a mysterious "behind-the-scenes force."
The recovery of market risk appetite is the first layer of driving force.
The fund rotation in the meme coin sector is the second layer of driving force.
PEPE itself breaking through key resistance is the third layer of driving force.
A sudden increase in trading volume further confirms market participation.
Lastly, social media heat and FOMO push the market to a higher position.
As for statements like "funds massively entering," "whales crazily accumulating," and "large-scale buybacks," more verifiable evidence is still needed.
This actually highlights the most noticeable aspect of this round of PEPE market:
It temporarily does not require an especially complex story.
Funds, sentiment, and technical breakthroughs themselves are already sufficient to explain why PEPE suddenly became the market focus.
However, what the market should be truly watching next is not "why has PEPE risen," but rather:
After such an increase, is there still new buying?
If trading volume continues to remain high, while the price can hold near the $0.00000458 breakout area, then the market will keep an eye on whether PEPE can expand to higher ranges.
If the price peaks and trading volume quickly declines, and then breaks through the key support level, then profit-taking may become a new market variable.
Thus, looking at PEPE now, don’t just focus on that large bullish candle.
Price, trading volume, on-chain whale behavior, and the overall risk appetite of the crypto market are the four signals that are truly worth watching next.
For meme coins like PEPE, the most dangerous phase is often not when no one is paying attention, but when the market begins to presume — it will only rise.
Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnostics, liquidation strategies, and practical market insights, scan to follow the official account《Youliang Planet》,join the community for strategies!
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