After consecutive days of short squeezing, the market has entered a very sensitive high position area. As long as the bulls still have strength, they may continue to push the price up by utilizing the short squeeze, but from the current cycle structure, short-term momentum has clearly been depleted.
Multiple cycles below the daily line have basically operated at high positions, with some cycles even having been stalled at high levels for more than 14 hours, accompanied by obvious top divergence. Today, the biggest risk to guard against is the formation of bearish resonance after the short cycle gradually weakens.
However, two logics need to be distinguished here:
Short-term overheating requiring a pullback ≠ The large-scale upward structure has ended.
BTC has previously broken through the 84K and important Fibonacci areas, so even if there is a short-term adjustment, it is more appropriate to define it as confirmation of a pullback after a breakout. A true trend reversal needs to be confirmed after the larger cycle structure is broken.
Therefore, today's core thought is relatively simple:
The closer to the upper pressure, the less to chase the rise; protect against rapid drops during fast rises; observe the bulls' support when pulling back to key support.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Prioritize short positions, support long positions as backup.
The biggest contradiction for BTC currently is **"structural breakout" existing alongside "volume-price divergence."**
The 4-hour price continues to refresh highs, but trading volume has not increased simultaneously, indicating that the funds chasing high positions are starting to dwindle, and the upward momentum is showing marginal weakness.
Meanwhile, the 2-hour high divergence has been stalled for about 14 hours. If the 1-hour, 2-hour, and 4-hour gradually weaken, it will be easy for a rapid resonance pullback to occur.
However, from a larger cycle perspective, the 84K breakout has been completed, so directly holding large positions to watch for a trend reversal at this position also carries significant risk.
In terms of derivatives, open interest is at a high level, indicating that leverage is being accumulated again, but it has not yet reached a historically extreme overheating state.
Therefore, a more reasonable rhythm is:
86300—88800 sees resistance after rising; focus on short positions;
84500—85000 provides support for stabilization; reconsider long positions;
83000—83600 is a more critical breakout pullback area.
Support: 84500-85000, 83000-83600
Resistance: 86300, 86900, 88800
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: Primarily short positions, support long positions as backup; pay attention to repairs during sharp drops and consolidations.
The short-term overheating signal for ETH is more evident than BTC.
There is strong selling pressure around 2780, and both the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI have entered the overbought region, with the 1-hour ADX at around 61, indicating that although the trend is strong, it has clearly overheated in the short term.
The most typical feature of such a market is:
The stronger the trend, the less one can guess the top in advance; but once momentum truly exhausts, the speed of the pullback may also be very fast.
From a larger cycle perspective, the ETH daily line has not yet fully confirmed the new trend conversion; therefore, the area around 2780 remains the most critical breakthrough testing zone.
Fundamental buying still provides some support, including institutional increases and custodial factors. However, if subsequent capital inflows slow down or market funds re-concentrate towards BTC, ETH, as a highly elastic asset, may experience a faster withdrawal of gains in the near term.
Therefore, it is not recommended to directly chase long positions around 2784. Only when there is truly a significant volume and stabilization can one further observe 2830 and 2860—2888.
Support: 2700, 2650-2660
Resistance: 2784, 2830, 2860-2888
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