In the past 24 hours, market news has been mixed, but there are two things worth highlighting. First, a related address from BIT has transferred 1,000 BTC to Binance again, worth about 81.06 million USD. This is a continuous deposit action from this address recently, and the behavior of whales transferring assets to exchanges requires caution regarding potential selling pressure. Second, Huang Licheng continues to increase positions in ETH, BTC, and HYPE, with total positions reaching 131 million USD. The bullish signal from this well-known large account should not be ignored. The two opposing forces are intensifying the short-term game, but the TPV system tells us that the price structure is the ultimate arbiter.
Current Price and Time
The current time is September 21, 10:22 AM, with the latest BTC price at 81,477 USDT, reflecting a 24-hour change of -0.11%, overall in a narrow consolidation at a high level. BTC market share is 58.1%, with funds still concentrated in Bitcoin, indicating that the altcoin season has not yet arrived. The Fear and Greed Index is reported at 70, in the greedy range, showing that market sentiment is somewhat warm but requires caution regarding overheating risks.
Multi-Period Status Overview
On the daily level, MA5=80,241.23, MA10=78,536.66, MA30=78,593.25, with moving averages showing a bullish arrangement. The MACD has formed a golden cross with a bar value of 70.14 being positive, DIF=1,557.81 is higher than DEA=1,487.67, with a clear upward trend on the daily chart. RSI=58.72 indicates there is still room before reaching the overbought zone, overall providing a bullish signal on the daily chart.
On the 4-hour level, MA5=81,047.56, MA10=81,027.58, MA30=78,971.37, with moving averages showing a bullish arrangement but MA5 and MA10 are almost intertwined, indicating a slowdown in short-term momentum. In MACD, DIF=934.39, DEA=963.63, with a bar value of -29.23 being negative, showing slight dead cross signs, and RSI=53.75 in the neutral zone, indicating a high-level oscillation feature in the 4-hour timeframe.
On the 1-hour level, MA5=81,296.56, MA10=81,186.79, MA30=80,859.02, and the moving averages show a bullish arrangement. In MACD, DIF=149.25, DEA=94.79, with a bar value of 54.46 being positive and DIF above DEA, indicating that bullish momentum is still continuing. RSI=64.54 is strong but not overbought. Crucially, EMA55=80,583.05, and the current price at 81,477 is well above it.
On the 15-minute level, MA5=81,378.86, MA10=81,541.27, MA30=81,251.36, with moving averages showing entanglement; MA5 being below MA10 indicates that there is short-term pullback pressure. The MACD bar value of -21.45 is negative, with DIF=99.04 below DEA=120.49, indicating weak momentum on the 15-minute level. RSI=55.28 is neutral.
TPV Signal Verification
First, let's look at trend positioning. The current price of 81,477 USDT is significantly above the 1-hour EMA55 of 80,583.05, indicating that the price is in a bullish trend area, which is the core judgment premise of the TPV system.
Let's verify the conditions for going long item by item. First, the price stands firmly above the 1H EMA55: all of the last 8 1-hour closing prices have been above EMA55, meeting the 8 out of 8 criteria, with 0 crossings, completely satisfying the condition of having 2 consecutive 1-hour closing prices above EMA55. Second, the support stabilization pattern: from the 1-hour candlestick structure, the price repeatedly gains support between the 81,000 to 81,500 range, with MA30=80,859.02 forming dynamic support, and no significant long lower shadow or bottom formation has appeared, but the overall pullback is limited, indicating strong consolidation. Third, the decline in momentum exhausted: the 1-hour MACD bar value of 54.46 remains positive, with DIF exceeding DEA, indicating no downward momentum; RSI=64.54 also has not risen from a low position. Strictly speaking, this condition does not apply to the current long scene since the price has not experienced a decline.
Overall, the TPV system confirms that we are currently in a bullish trend area, the first two core conditions are met, and the third condition does not constitute an obstacle due to the absence of price decline. Oscillation auxiliary data also verifies this: the last 8 1-hour closing prices have all been above EMA55, with 8 out of 8 occurrences and 0 crossings, with the price's distance from EMA55 being 1.11%, substantially exceeding the 0.3% oscillation threshold, clearly indicating a unilateral bullish trend.
On-chain/Fundamentals
The Fear and Greed Index is at 70, indicating strong greed sentiment. Historically, this level often corresponds to short-term peak areas, but in a strong trend, greed can persist longer. BTC's market share of 58.1% shows that funds are still concentrating on Bitcoin, providing support for BTC prices. On the on-chain news front, PlanB pointed out that Bitcoin has broken through the 50-week moving average, with a target outlook of 89,000 USD. The BTC gold ratio has also broken through the 50-week moving average, and these two mid-long-term indicators are in resonance for bullishness. On the other hand, the BIT-related address depositing 1,000 BTC into Binance is a short-term negative that needs to be digested; however, a single deposit of 8.106 million USD accounts for a limited proportion of BTC's average daily trading volume and does not constitute a trend risk. Market behavior has shifted from panic selling to buying on dips, a positive signal indicating enhanced bottom support.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Upper Resistance Levels: The first resistance level is in the range of 81,800 to 82,000, a dense area of recent highs; the second resistance is 82,500, where breaking through would open up space for movement towards 84,000; the third resistance refers to the 89,000 target provided by PlanB.
Lower Support Levels: The first support level is the 81,000 whole number level, coinciding with the 4-hour MA5=81,047.56 and MA10=81,027.58, providing significant support; the second support is 80,583, which is where the 1-hour EMA55 is located, representing the TPV system's bull-bear dividing line and the most important defensive level; the third support is at 80,241, the position of the daily MA5.
Trading Thoughts
Direction: Bullish. The TPV system confirms a unilateral bullish trend, with 8 candlesticks showing no crossings of EMA55, and the trend structure is intact; maintain a buying on dips approach until the price breaks below the 1-hour EMA55.
Entry Conditions: The price stabilizes after a pullback in the range of 81,000 to 81,200, and a lower shadow or engulfing bullish pattern occurs in the 1-hour candlestick, while the 1-hour MACD bar value remains positive and does not turn negative. If the price breaks through 82,000 directly and stabilizes, a light position can also be taken to chase the long trend.
Stop Loss: If the price falls below the 1-hour EMA55, specifically below 80,583, set it at 80,300 to allow some volatility tolerance around EMA55. If two consecutive 1-hour closing prices fall below EMA55, the TPV system will reverse to bearish, and leaving the market must be unconditional.
Target Levels: The first target at 82,000, the second target at 82,500, the third target at 84,000. After reaching the first target, you can reduce the position by half, and move the remaining position's stop loss to the entry price to aim for higher targets.
Risk Warning
The continuous deposits from whales combined with a greed index of 70 indicate that if the 1-hour EMA55 is effectively broken, the bullish logic will fail, and one must exit decisively.
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