Today is Sunday, and the big bullish candle for BTC on the weekly chart this week has basically become a certainty. Even if there is a pullback today, given the current weekly structure, the difficulty of falling back to the starting point of this round of upward movement in the short term is relatively high.
However, short-term risks are accumulating quickly.
The market has currently entered a 2-hour and below adjustment phase, while the 12-hour cycle has reached a high position. If today sees a sudden sharp rise, a rapid spike, or even a short squeeze, it is instead necessary to be vigilant as this may become the last round of liquidity cleaning at high positions.
Once multiple cycles below 12 hours synchronize in weakness, it could form a bearish resonance. If the adjustment can further expand to the 4-hour level, the space for this round of retest will significantly increase.
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network was about $162 million, with short positions accounting for about 73%, indicating that the recent rise has a clear short squeeze characteristic. However, BTC's funding rate remains moderately positive, suggesting that long positions have not yet become extremely crowded.
Therefore, the core idea today is:
Do not directly short at support levels; after a sudden rise, focus on defending against a potential reversal; wait for a pullback to key support before looking for buying opportunities.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Viewpoint: Focus on shorting at high levels, with some long positions to support, primarily guarding against bearish resonance below 12 hours.
BTC is currently in a high position on the 12-hour cycle, while shorter cycles are beginning to gradually adjust.
The current price is testing the 1-hour support. If this support remains effective, it indicates that the short-term strong structure still exists, and it is not advisable to short directly near the support.
It is more worthwhile to wait for two scenarios:
First, the price rebounds but fails to break the previous high.
This indicates that the bullish momentum is starting to decline, and one can look for a short position at high levels.
Second, a sudden surge with increased volume or even a spike upwards.
If the price quickly impacts the 81700—83300 range but cannot hold, this short squeeze may actually become a better window for shorting at high levels.
On the other hand, if the 2-hour and 4-hour levels complete a sufficient pullback, they will regain low long observation value.
Therefore, today it is not advisable to anticipate a top in advance but to wait for the market to accelerate before judging whether the momentum is exhausted.
Support: 80135-80600, 79000-79500
Resistance: 81700, 82288, 82758, 83300
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
Viewpoint: Short-term weaker than BTC, leaning towards shorting at high positions, waiting for pullbacks to support for lower entries.
Since yesterday, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has weakened, causing ETH to perform overall weaker than BTC.
Currently, cycle signals are also starting to show divergence: the 4-hour MACD bullish momentum is gradually shrinking, while the 1-hour MACD bearish histogram is expanding, indicating that there is certain pullback pressure in the short term.
Meanwhile, the 4-hour RSI is around 73, and the 1-hour RSI is around 68, both in relatively high zones, thus the risk of chasing highs is increasing.
However, ETH has not completely turned weak.
After breaking out of the 4-hour cup and handle structure, the neckline around 2590 is still playing a supportive role, and the depth of buy orders in the market is relatively thick. Therefore, as long as the support around 2590 remains effectively intact, the mid-term strong structure will still be preserved.
It is necessary to pay special attention to ETH's high beta characteristic.
During an uptrend, it has greater elasticity, but when market sentiment weakens, the pullback usually occurs faster than BTC. The current rise is also accompanied by obvious short squeeze factors, so if BTC begins to adjust and the ETH/BTC exchange rate weakens in sync, ETH may experience a quicker pullback.
Support: 2600-2615, 2578-2590
Resistance: 2648-2654, 2666-2680
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