The credit risk of large tech companies is beginning to rise, and the AI arms race is starting to transmit to the credit market.

In the past, companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Oracle had a significant advantage: they had plenty of cash, good credit, and cheap borrowing costs. As long as the cost of financing is low enough, numerous projects can continue to move forward, even with high expenditures on AI, data centers, chips, and electricity.

Now that credit costs are starting to rise, the situation will gradually change. New bonds will need to offer higher interest rates, and refinancing of old debts will also become more expensive once they mature. For these tech giants, in the short term, there’s no question of not being able to pay their debts, but each data center and every AI investment will have to be re-evaluated. Projects with previously average returns may be pushed forward, but as financing becomes more expensive, projects that do not yield high enough returns could be delayed or even cut entirely.

This will continue to ripple down the entire AI industrial chain. If tech giants build fewer data centers, companies in sectors like GPUs, servers, networking equipment, power, cooling, optical modules, and construction will be affected later on. The scale of AI investment is already too large, and the growth expectations of many upstream companies are based on these giants continuing to spend heavily.

There is also another layer of pressure for US stocks. US Treasury yields are already quite high, and if large tech companies' bonds also start offering increasingly higher yields, capital will have more options. Investors who were previously willing to accept stock volatility to chase tech stocks may now find decent returns from bonds, leading to a natural reallocation of some funds.

Therefore, the rise in CDS does not itself indicate that these companies will encounter problems, but it signifies that the bond market has begun to charge a higher entry fee for the AI arms race.

If the CDS, bond issuance scale, and financing costs of technology companies continue to rise together, the issues facing the AI market will shift from whether it can continue to grow rapidly to whether it can maintain growth with such a large amount of funding.

This will impact tech stocks and the entire AI industrial chain.

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