Today is Friday, and the market enters a time window where volatility can easily be amplified during the week. September is already halfway through, and the monthly K-line still maintains an oscillating cross shape, indicating that the true large-scale direction for this month has yet to be fully determined.

There are beginning to be some positive changes on the cycle front.

After a pullback, BTC's weekly chart has regained upward conditions, and the daily chart has entered a bullish cycle, with multiple levels brewing in resonance. In contrast, the daily and weekly adjustments for ETH are still not sufficient, so the biggest variable for the second coin remains BTC — if BTC breaks through strongly, ETH is likely to follow passively; if BTC continues to oscillate or even falls back, the hidden dangers of ETH's large-cycle adjustment still exist.

Currently, there is a structure in the market that is worth focusing on: above BTC, the area of 75982—83575 accumulates about 4.79 billion dollars of short liquidation pressure, while the potential long and short liquidation scale below shows a clear asymmetry.

This means that once the price breaks through key pressures upward and triggers a chain reaction of liquidations, the passive buying from closing shorts may further push the price up, creating a "breakthrough—liquidation—further rise" squeeze chain.

However, before any real volume breakthrough occurs, we should continue to handle it according to an oscillation mindset to avoid premature betting.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Focus on buying low, with some high shorting, pay close attention to daily bullish resonance.

BTC's daily chart is currently in a low recovery phase, with multiple cycles starting to have conditions for upward synchronization:

The 1-hour, 2-hour, 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily charts all have bullish conditions; the 4-hour and 6-hour charts are close to high positions but have not shown significant acceleration for the time being.

This creates a rather unique state — the market seems to be "holding back."

If the subsequent trading volume suddenly increases and drives multiple cycles to accelerate synchronously, a daily level bullish resonance may form; combined with the overhead short liquidation pressure, a breakthrough could lead to greater volatility than an ordinary technical rebound.

However, no real volume breakthrough occurs in the 77000—78000 pressure area, the oscillation strategy can continue to be adopted, observing pressure at high levels and focusing on pullbacks for support.

Avoid chasing expectations before the breakthrough, and only follow confirmations after the breakthrough.

Support: 76200, 75000-75500
Resistance: 77000-77500, 78000

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Focus on buying low, with some high shorting, pay close attention to BTC and ETH/BTC exchange rate.

There is concentrated short liquidation pressure in the area of 2455—2496 above ETH, and if the price can break through with volume, it could easily trigger a short squeeze, pushing the price rapidly towards 2500 or even higher regions.

Below, around 2405, there has been clear liquidation and fund support previously, indicating that around 2400 remains a very important short-term defense area.

The current characteristic of ETH is still “both sides are following”:

If BTC suddenly strengthens, it will follow the market upward; if the ETH/BTC exchange rate suddenly rises, it may lead to a relatively independent market performance.

Therefore, judging ETH cannot only look at its own K-line but also needs to observe BTC direction and ETH/BTC exchange rate simultaneously.

Currently, the daily and weekly charts for ETH have not yet reached ideal bullish conditions, but multiple lower cycles below the 12-hour mark have started to establish a foundation for bullish resonance.

If BTC breaks upward first, ETH could easily passively enter a rapid catch-up; conversely, if BTC continues to face pressure, the insufficiency of ETH's large cycle adjustment may be revealed again.

Support: 2420-2430, 2400, 2360
Resistance: 2480, 2500, 2510, 2550, 2610

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This article is published by 【Huijing Community】, representing only personal opinions. Due to delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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