Bitcoin is experiencing upward fluctuations but faces heavy resistance: 77,000 has become a key level, and 76,000 will determine short-term strength and weakness.

After the basic release of negative news, the market has entered a new observation phase. The biggest characteristic of the current market is not a one-sided rise or a one-sided fall, but a repeated fluctuation around key positions.

From yesterday's trend, Bitcoin still maintained around 76,000, without further breaking below the key area below. The long positions that were arranged around 76,200 have also reached the take-profit position.

76,000—77,100, the core short-term fluctuation range

From the hourly chart, recent lows have concentrated around 75,000, while the important upper edge has gradually become clear around 76,200.

Previously, the market attempted to push above 77,100, but failed to establish an effective foothold. The price subsequently fell back, but is still operating near the upper edge of the previous fluctuation area.

Therefore, the current hourly level has gradually entered the decline testing phase from the previous rise. Although the short-term is slightly weak, the real determination of strength and weakness still depends on 76,200.

As long as 76,200 is not effectively broken, the market can still maintain a structure of fluctuation upwards; once it is broken, attention must first be paid to the 75,500—75,400 area below.

So the most important positions on the current naked K chart are very clear:

Above: Resistance near 77,100.
Middle: Key support at 76,200.
Below: Support at 75,500—75,400.

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4-hour rebound still ongoing, but overall still belongs to the correction in a downtrend structure

From the 4-hour cycle, this round of market fell from 82,800 to 74,900 and then rebounded.

During this period, several consecutive bullish candles appeared, with the price rebounding to around 77,150 at its highest, but then closing back down. Currently, although the price hasn't refreshed the low of 74,900 again, it also hasn't broken through the important region of 79,500.

This means that the current rebound still belongs to the correction within the previous downtrend structure, rather than confirming a trend reversal.

Therefore, on the 4-hour short-term chart, we can see the rebound momentum, but the high points on a larger timeframe are still gradually moving downward, and the rebound power remains limited. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnosis, de-leverage ideas, and practical market content, scan the code to follow the public account《有亮星球》，Join the community to get the strategy!

Daily chart entering reorganization within the large bearish candle

On the daily chart, pay close attention to the large bearish candle from September 15th.

At that time, the price fell from around 78,100—78,200 all the way down to around 74,900, followed by a gradual rebound.

The price has currently returned above 76,000, but has not yet reestablished above 76,500, let alone regain the area above 78,000.

Therefore, the daily chart currently looks more like a consolidation within the large bearish candle.

Although the lows have risen to some extent over the past three days, the overall direction still remains weak. Notably, there is significant pressure around 77,000—77,100 above, and further upward movement still faces pressure near 78,000.

8,4000 remains an important pressure point on a larger timeframe

From the Fibonacci structure of a larger timeframe, the rebound from 82,800 to 74,900 is currently contesting the position near 76,500.

And from the long-term structure from the high of 126,000 to the low of 57,000, 0.382 corresponds similarly to around 8,4000.

Therefore, there is a more obvious long-term pressure near 8,4000.

This also means that even if we see a short-term rebound, it cannot simply be interpreted as the trend has completely turned strong. More significant levels still need to observe whether the highs can truly rise again. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnosis, de-leverage ideas, and practical market content, scan the code to follow the public account《有亮星球》，Join the community to get the strategy!

Trading volume has not significantly increased, upward strength still needs to be observed

Regarding trading volume, the price experienced a slight rebound yesterday, accompanied by a certain degree of expansion in total positions, indicating some volume-price pairing during the rebound.

However, the problem is that the expansion of trading volume is not significant and has not formed a sustained increase.

Therefore, at present, it is not enough to support a continuous strong upward attack.

If the price continues to rise later, and trading volume can significantly increase, then the effectiveness of the rebound will further strengthen. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnosis, de-leverage ideas, and practical market content, scan the code to follow the public account《有亮星球》，Join the community to get the strategy!

MACD short-term begins to show improvement

In terms of MACD, a death cross previously appeared on the hourly chart, and the death cross momentum is gradually shrinking; if a golden cross forms next, the short-term may further bring stabilization and rebound.

On the 4-hour level, it is already in a golden cross operation state, and currently, the volume is gradually increasing while the price is also rebounding; thus, the rebound momentum on the 4-hour chart is increasing.

On the daily level, after the earlier death cross, the price fell from around 82,800 to around 74,900, and has seen three consecutive days of slight bullish closes, with short-selling momentum starting to ease.

This indicates that the speed of decline is slowing down, but it cannot be directly defined as a trend reversal. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnosis, de-leverage ideas, and practical market content, scan the code to follow the public account《有亮星球》，Join the community to get the strategy!

Today's focus: Can 77,000 break through, can 76,000 hold?

Considering the hourly, 4-hour, daily charts along with moving averages, Bollinger Bands, MACD, and trading volume, there are signs of a short-term upward fluctuation; however, the pressure above is quite dense.

The area near 77,000 is the most noteworthy position today.

If it can effectively establish itself above 77,000 and further break through 77,100, then the short-term rebound space is expected to further open up.

Conversely, if it is again suppressed near 77,000 and the price retests downward, then 76,000 will be an important dividing line for strength and weakness.

Once 76,000 is effectively broken, the market needs to further guard against a fall towards 75,000 or even around 74,800.

Therefore, the focus is not simply on bullish or bearish views, but waiting for key positions to provide answers.

If 76,000 does not break, the short-term can still maintain an observation perspective of upward fluctuations; whether 77,000—77,100 can hold will determine whether the rebound can continue further.

Currently, it is more appropriate to focus on the gains and losses of key positions rather than blindly chasing highs and lows in the fluctuation range.

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