The atmosphere on Thursday is still quite good. Although the US stock market dropped after the interest rate meeting, it not only recovered yesterday’s losses after opening today but also rebounded quite a bit, indicating that investors have fully digested the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the expectation of possibly another hike soon. If this is the case, then the next two inflation data points may not be very important, as preparations for an interest rate hike are already in place; as long as the data is not extremely bad, it shouldn't be a big issue.

However, this is a one-sided view of the market. What still needs to be considered is the oil price. If the issues with Iran and Hormuz cannot be resolved, the suppression of oil prices from the interest rate hikes may not last too long. Therefore, we can also see Trump stating today that there might be a significant decision regarding Iran, which should be about making a choice between engaging or not. Dragging on has already gone beyond Trump's control.

I personally lean towards the idea that Trump may allow US troops to withdraw from Iran in exchange for Iran opening Hormuz. Of course, whether this is the case and whether Iran would agree to such a plan is still unknown. However, I think it might be very difficult to convince Iran in the short term through military means. If it cannot be persuaded, we will still return to this tense state. On Friday, Japan will also raise interest rates, which is already fully expected by the market, so the impact should be minimal.

After Japan raises interest rates tomorrow, I will continue my dual-currency investment in Bitcoin, with a target price between $73,000 and $75,000. Recently, this trend has been quite evident, though I am not sure of the reasons for the increase. Nonetheless, at around $75,000, investors' purchasing power is still quite strong. However, the recent performance of the bitcoin:native spot ETF has not been very good, which also needs to be noted.

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