Yesterday, a significant announcement was officially made: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points. After the interest rate decision was announced, BTC quickly dipped to around 75000 but subsequently recovered to some extent, indicating that the market had completed the first round of panic emotion release.
The market has now entered a new stage: the impact of news is temporarily greater than that of pure technical analysis.
During periods of macro events, original support, pressure, and even technical patterns can be instantly breached by sudden news. Therefore, recent trading needs to pay more attention to the Federal Reserve's subsequent statements, interest rate expectations, and changes in geopolitical situations.
Meanwhile, new disturbances have emerged from regulatory aspects, as the policy catalysts that the market originally anticipated have not been smoothly realized, further suppressing risk appetite.
However, after a concentrated release of negative news, the market did not experience sustained panic selling. After BTC dropped to around 75000, it regained support, indicating that the previously accumulated spot buying was still playing a role.
Therefore, the biggest contradiction at the current position has become:
The macro environment continues to be bearish, but the technical cycle is gradually approaching a low; negative factors suppress the price, while bulls are beginning to brew a cycle resonance.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Pay attention to buying on the dip for recovery; if there is a strong rise to the pressure area, consider shorting, but it is not advisable to short at the bottom.
The daily cycle for BTC is gradually approaching a low point, and the cost-effectiveness of continuing to short in the short cycle has clearly decreased.
From a technical perspective, the overall long-short framework of the daily chart has not been completely destroyed, but bullish momentum has indeed weakened significantly: the short-term EMA is flattening, the MACD histogram continues to shrink, and the DIF has begun to turn downwards.
The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, indicating that volatility is entering a compression phase again, and a new direction choice is approaching.
What is more noteworthy is the cyclical structure.
Currently, multiple short cycles for BTC are gradually forming conditions for recovery. If the subsequent momentum amplifies synchronously, it cannot be ruled out that a bullish resonance counterattack may occur. Therefore, even if the macro environment is bearish, it is not advisable to continue shorting around 75000.
Currently, it is more suitable to:
Look for support on sharp dips → Participate in technical recovery;
Enter pressure on a quick rise → Then observe for short opportunities.
If the 74800—75300 area can hold, there is still a possibility to retest 77300 or even 78300 in the short term; if 74000 is further breached, the daily structure needs to be reassessed.
Support: 74800-75300, 74000
Resistance: 77300, 77800, 78300
⟠ Ethereum (ETH)
View: There are opportunities for buying low and shorting high, mainly to guard against the rapid surge brought by the BTC and ETH/BTC exchange rate jointly.
After the news was announced, ETH did not refresh its adjustment low, showing some resilience compared to BTC.
The fundamental capital side also provides some support: the previous performance of ETH spot funds was relatively stable, while the exchange stocks of ETH continued to decline, easing short-term market selling pressure.
However, the technical aspect is still in a weak recovery phase.
After ETH failed to break through the strong resistance at 2500 again, it quickly retreated, closing with a bearish candle on the daily chart and falling below the short-term EMA15; the MACD red bars continued to shorten, and bullish momentum has diminished.
At the 4-hour level, it has fallen below EMA15 and EMA30, with the original short-term support gradually turning into resistance, thus remaining in a weak correction phase after the bullish trend.
Nevertheless, it is necessary to prevent two variables from strengthening simultaneously:
BTC forming bullish resonance + sudden increase in the ETH/BTC exchange rate.
If both occur simultaneously, the rally potential of ETH will often be significantly greater than that of BTC, easily leading to a rapid surge in a short time. Hence, the current position is also not suitable for blindly shorting.
Support: 2400-2415, 2370, 2330-2350
Resistance: 2445-2463, 2484-2500
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This article is published by 【Huijing Community】 and represents personal views only. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make judgments rationally and operate cautiously.
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