🚨 BTC breaks below $76,000, XRP falls below $1.35! SOL and TRX also reach critical positions, the September crypto market faces a real test

The strong rebound in August is gradually cooling down.

Bitcoin saw a significant rise in August and briefly broke $81,000 at the beginning of September, but subsequently failed to breach the $80,000 mark multiple times, leading the market into a clear phase of volatility and correction. Meanwhile, Solana, XRP, and TRON have also fallen back to near crucial technical support levels.

As of September 17, the market's focus isn't on "which coin can continue to rise," but rather a more realistic question:

Can BTC and mainstream altcoins hold the key support levels established during this round of gains after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again and the U.S. crypto regulation bill stalls?

The latest article from the CoinMarketCap community points out that SOL, XRP, BTC, and TRX are currently testing important technical areas, but the structures of the four assets are not entirely the same. SOL is experiencing a correction post-rise, BTC is in a consolidation after the August rebound, XRP's technical structure has clearly weakened, while TRX is closer to a narrow contraction.

Summary Points

• BTC's short-term key support is concentrated between $71,500—$73,500
• If BTC returns to $77,000—$78,000, it is an important signal for short-term structural improvement
• SOL is testing the $96—$98 area; if it drops below $96, the next support is seen towards $92—$93
• XRP has dropped below the key level of $1.35, and $1.25—$1.28 has become the new important support
• TRX is oscillating around $0.333—$0.335, with $0.325—$0.330 being the next layer of support
• On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in years, further tightening market liquidity
• The U.S. Senate also failed to push the CLARITY Act forward on the same day, affecting expectations around crypto regulation once again
• This means that the current market has shifted from "fund-driven rises" to "macro and technical factors jointly determining direction"

BTC: $76,000 is not the most dangerous position, the real key is around $72,000

Bitcoin is the barometer of the entire market.

If BTC can stabilize, assets like ETH, SOL, and XRP usually have room for recovery; but if BTC falls below the important medium-term support, altcoins often bear greater volatility.

In August, Bitcoin quickly rose from a lower position, then broke $81,000 in early September, setting a new high for this round of rebound.

The problem is that after the breakout, buyers did not further expand their advantage.

BTC subsequently attempted to break through the $79,000—$80,000 area multiple times, but each rebound met with selling pressure. According to the latest technical analysis, BTC is currently operating around $75,000—$76,000, with short-term momentum clearly weakened.

More importantly, observe the RSI.

During the strong rise in August, BTC's RSI briefly entered the high zone, but with the price retreating, the RSI has fallen below 50.

This indicates that the market has shifted from a prior strong uptrend to a more evident tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Currently, the first point to watch is around $75,000.

If this level can attract buying support, the market may continue to consolidate sideways.

However, if $75,000 is effectively broken, the next crucial support area will be $71,500—$73,500.

This area is marked by several medium- to long-term moving averages, making its significance notably higher than just a round number.

Conversely, if BTC can reclaim $77,000—$78,000, short-term market sentiment may improve again.

The real opening for upward movement will require a re-challenge of $80,000 and a further breakthrough above the previous high around $81,000.

Therefore, BTC is currently in a very typical "box selection phase."

Above is the pressure at $80,000, and below is the support at $72,000—$75,000.

Until a true direction is chosen, the risks of chasing higher and cutting losses are increasing.

SOL: The more it soared in August, the more attention should be paid to the current correction

If BTC is the core of the entire market, then Solana is one of the most obvious representatives of risk appetite in this round.

In August, SOL rose from around $75 to break $110, showing a very significant increase.

However, after entering September, SOL began to give back part of its gains.

In the latest market, SOL has fallen back to around $97 and is starting to test the critical support area of $96—$98.

This is also why there is increasing discussion about SOL in the market now.

The question is not "Has SOL finished rising?" but rather:

Is the breakout in August the start of a new trend, or just a quick phase rebound?

The technical analysis does not yet provide a clear answer.

Currently, $96—$98 is the first line of defense.

If SOL can hold here and re-establish above $100, then the short-term structure still has the chance for recovery.

A further breakthrough above $102—$104 would mean buyers regain some initiative.

However, if $96 is effectively broken, then $92—$93 will become a new observation area; if it goes lower, then attention needs to be paid to the vicinity of $88—$90.

From the RSI perspective, SOL has dropped from a previous strong zone to around the low 40s, but is not yet in a distinctly oversold state.

This means:

While SOL has already fallen considerably, it does not indicate that the selling pressure has fully eased.

Thus, for SOL, what truly matters is whether it can hold $96, rather than simply looking at daily fluctuations.

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XRP: Among the four major assets, the change in technical structure is most evident

Comparing BTC, SOL, XRP, and TRX, the most evident change in technical structure is seen in XRP.

XRP previously established a range around $1.40—$1.45 but then broke down noticeably.

Especially at the $1.35 position.

This was once an important horizontal support level and also near a long-term moving average.

Once the price falls below and is coupled with increased trading volume, it signifies that the previous support is beginning to turn into resistance.

XRP is currently around $1.27, and $1.25—$1.28 has become the new key area in the short term.

This means XRP may exhibit two completely different price movements ahead.

First:

If $1.25—$1.28 can form support, the price may rebound and reclaim $1.34—$1.35.

If this occurs, the earlier breakdown may be more of a deep retest.

Second:

If $1.25 continues to fail and trading volume further expands.

Then below, it may continue to test around $1.20, or even return to the starting point of the previous breakout.

More importantly, XRP's RSI has dropped below 50, indicating that short-term momentum is weakening.

So now discussing whether XRP "can still rise" is premature.

The more pressing question is:

Can $1.25 actually become a new bottom area?

TRX: No crash, but waiting for direction choice

Compared to BTC, SOL, and XRP, TRX's current performance is not as intense.

TRX has recently been operating mainly around $0.333—$0.335, with prices compressed by multiple short- to medium-term moving averages.

This trend has a characteristic:

Short-term fluctuations are becoming smaller, but the importance of direction choice is increasing.

Currently, $0.333—$0.335 can be seen as the first layer of support.

If this position can hold, then TRX will maintain its gradually rising low structure since June.

But if it falls below $0.33, the next noteworthy position will be around $0.325—$0.326.

Above is clearer.

$0.34 is the first pressure point; breaking $0.345 makes it easier for the market to refocus on the vicinity of $0.35.

Thus, the biggest difference between TRX and XRP is:

XRP has seen a noticeable breakdown in its technical structure, while TRX is still more about waiting for a breakout direction.

What truly changes the market is not just candlesticks, but the Federal Reserve

If this is merely a typical technical adjustment, the market shouldn't be this tense.

The problem is, on September 16, a significant event affecting risk assets occurred.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%—4.00%, marking the first rate increase under new Chair Kevin Warsh. More importantly, the latest economic forecast shows that 16 of the 18 policymakers expect at least one more rate hike before the end of the year.

What does this mean for BTC?

In simple terms:

The cost of funds has increased.

When U.S. Treasury yields rise, returns on holding risk-free or low-risk assets increase, while high-volatility assets naturally face greater valuation pressure.

In August, BTC's strong rise was heavily backed by a recovering market risk appetite.

But now, the macro environment is changing.

The Fed's rate hike means the market can no longer rely solely on "rate cut expectations" to propel risk assets higher.

This is also why BTC has struggled to continue expanding its gains after breaking $80,000.

The stalling of the CLARITY Act adds another layer of uncertainty to the market

In addition to interest rates, new changes have also emerged in U.S. crypto regulation.

The U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, meaning the market has seen a disconnect from previous expectations for clearer crypto regulations. Reuters reported that this outcome leaves the U.S. crypto industry continuing to face regulatory uncertainty.

The direct impact on BTC may not be immediately reflected in the price.

However, for the entire industry, regulatory certainty itself is an important variable for long-term capital allocation.

Particularly, issues such as ETFs, stablecoins, trading platforms, and token classification are all related to whether institutional capital can further enter the market.

Thus, the market is currently facing dual directions:

On one side, there is the continuing long-term demand for institutional capital and ETFs;

On the other, there are short-term pressures arising from rising interest rates and changes in regulatory expectations.

This is why the market sentiment is so conflicted.

ETF funds have not disappeared, but the market is no longer a one-sided affair

Previously, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw very strong capital inflows, and overall capital performance in August improved significantly.

However, entering September, ETF funds began to exhibit volatility.

CoinDesk data shows that on September 10, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of approximately $120 million, while ETH, XRP, and SOL related ETFs still had capital inflows on that day.

This phenomenon is actually very noteworthy.

Because it indicates:

Institutional capital has not simply "fully exited the crypto market."

It feels more like differentiation of capital among different assets is beginning.

BTC is more affected by macro interest rates, while some funds are still willing to allocate to other digital assets.

This also explains why certain altcoins can intermittently outperform BTC, even when the overall market adjusts.

But it is important to note that ETF inflows do not guarantee price rises.

ETF funds are only part of the market supply and demand.

What truly determines price is still the combined effects of capital scale, leverage levels, spot demand, and the macro environment.

The real key in September: It's not about predicting rises and falls, but observing whether support holds

Looking at the four assets together, the current market structure is very interesting.

BTC:

$75,000 is a key observation point in the short term, and $71,500—$73,500 is a more important mid-term support area.

SOL:

$96—$98 is the first line of defense, and $92—$93 is the next layer of support.

XRP:

$1.25—$1.28 determines whether short-term declines can be halted, and reclaiming $1.35 is necessary to significantly repair prior technical damage.

TRX:

$0.333—$0.335 determines whether the current compression structure can be maintained, while $0.325—$0.326 is stronger support.

The meaningful aspect of these numbers is not to tell investors, "buy at this point" or "sell at that point."

Rather, it helps the market judge:

Whether buyers have truly returned.

If the price drops to the support area after volume decreases and selling pressure weakens, and quickly recovers previously lost positions, it may mean the market is completing a correction.

However, if it breaks support and volume continues to increase while rebounds are continually suppressed, it means the market structure may have changed.

These two scenarios carry completely different meanings.

Conclusion: Has the August frenzy ended?

It is still premature to make such a conclusion.

In August, BTC and many mainstream assets indeed experienced a very strong rebound, but entering September, the market has clearly transitioned from a "chase the rise mode" to a "verification mode."

Can BTC hold the mid $70,000 range?

Can SOL hold $96?

Can XRP reclaim $1.35?

Can TRX hold $0.33?

These questions are more important than simply predicting how much a coin "can rise next month."

Moreover, it is worth noting that after the Federal Reserve's rate hike on September 16, the market is repricing the interest and liquidity environment. At the same time, the stalling of the CLARITY Act has introduced new uncertainties in policy expectations for the crypto industry.

Therefore, the market is likely entering a stage of "high volatility, strong differentiation."

If BTC can stabilize above $77,000—$78,000, it indicates that buyers are regaining short-term initiative;

If SOL can break $100—$104 again, it implies a possibility of recovery in the August upward structure;

If XRP can reclaim $1.35, it would alleviate some of the prior technical damage;

And if TRX breaks $0.345, it would signify that the current compressed structure is starting to release upwards.

Conversely, if these key supports are continuously broken, the market will need to reassess the sustainability of the August rally.

But rather:

This round of correction, is it merely digesting the rise in August, or is it altering the overall market trend structure?

The answer will not appear in predictions.

It will emerge in the price, volume, and capital flows in the coming days.

Daily sharing real-time trading strategies, providing free position diagnostics, liquidation ideas, and practical insights into the market, scan the code to follow the official account“Bright Star Planet”,join the community for strategies!

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