In the last 7 effective trading days, the bitcoin:native spot ETF has cumulatively reduced holdings by 6,909.75 BTC, indicating a significant weakening of recent fund support. On the 14th, there was just a replenishment, but on the 15th, there was a net reduction of 5,352.54 BTC, which not only reversed all the increases from the previous day but also slightly turned negative cumulatively since September.

The seven-day cumulative turned negative also includes the impact of large increases being moved out on September 3, but the latest day saw a significant reduction again, indicating that the replenishment has not formed sustainability. Taking September 15 as the observation point, the market is currently at the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision window.

In the latest inflation data, energy pressures remain, while core inflation has slightly retreated year-on-year, and the policy signals are not singular. It cannot yet be determined that funds are betting on a specific interest rate outcome. What needs to be observed going forward is whether continuous net increases can be restored after the policy is implemented. If there is still only brief replenishment, the ETF's support for the market will continue to be weak.

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