Review of Issue 43: BTC short at 79200-79800 ultimately reached the third target near 75000, and ETH short at 2565-2600 also touched around 2357 last night. This round of short positions again aligns with expectations. Next, I will continue to discuss my views on Issue 44.

Yesterday, the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act, and Bitcoin temporarily fell to around 74900, while Ethereum dipped close to 2357. Market risk appetite was clearly affected.

Today, the biggest risk does not lie in the market itself, but in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tonight and the subsequent monetary policy press conference, with market pricing clearly leaning towards a rate hike in this meeting.

Therefore, today's trading must be cautious:

The real market concern is not "whether to raise rates," but "how the Federal Reserve will communicate after a rate hike."

If the statement and press conference convey a tightening signal, indicating further rate hikes may follow, alongside stronger U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, then the rebound pressure on BTC and ETH may be quite significant.

Conversely, if the market has fully priced in interest rate changes and the Federal Reserve's subsequent statements are not as hawkish as the market imagined, or even suggest an improvement in liquidity expectations, then previously declining BTC and ETH might actually experience a rapid rebound. This is why today is not suitable for a full bet on the current position. Personally, I lean towards focusing on short positions on rebounds!

Specific strategy refers to the upper resistance range for high shorts:

BTC: Short at the head position near 77200-77900, add positions near 78700-79500, with defensive control at 79800, attention targets at 76000-75000, with an effective drop looking at 73700-72500-70000 level.

ETH: Short at the head position near 2450-2480, add shorts near 2535-2550, with defensive control at 2570, attention targets at 2360, an effective drop looking at around 2330-2280, as well as around 2165-2080.

⚠️: Friends who cannot accept wide stop losses are advised to reduce their positions or, after entering the head position, raise the add position by 200-300 points (BTC), 10-20 points (ETH) as defense.

⚠️ The above strategy only has point deviations: BTC ±100, ETH ±5 point deviation.

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