Oil prices and the CLARITY Act are the two main topics today. The current spot and futures price differences in oil are mainly due to the market predicting that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will have a slight suppressive effect on oil prices, but this effect may not last long unless the Fed is very hawkish in the dot plot and during the final Q&A with reporters, which could possibly lower oil prices a bit. However, even if the Fed raises interest rates, it won't solve the issues in the Strait of Hormuz.

It is also unfortunate that the CLARITY Act did not reach 60 votes; it currently lacks at least 10 votes. There is not even unity within the Republican Party, let alone bipartisan support. The probability of achieving this by 2026 is already very low. However, from the voting, it appears that the Democratic Party is not very opposed to cryptocurrencies; the main opposition is to the restrictions on the president in the cryptocurrency field. I estimate that this issue will not exist for Trump in the future.

I previously wasn't clear on the reasons for Bitcoin's rise. A friend reminded me that it was due to the CLARITY Act, but I don't think that's the case. It is already known that it will not pass this time, yet the price of bitcoin:native remains stable around $76,000. Even though it briefly dipped below $75,000, it has bounced back somewhat, so I believe the CLARITY Act may not be the main reason.

Today will be the early Thursday interest rate meeting. Although I still believe the Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates, I am likely wrong. Raising interest rates now may not significantly help with inflation. If the inflation data for September and October is not resolved in the Strait of Hormuz, it will definitely be very unfavorable, and even raising rates won’t solve it.

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