Will Trump's promise of giving $5,000 to everyone be feasible?

Trump promised that if the Republican Party maintains control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections in November, every adult American citizen will receive $5,000. To prove that he can do it, he mentioned the previously passed "big and beautiful" bill, as well as the $1,776 given to military personnel.

In fact, Trump has been planning to distribute money as early as 2025, with the source of funds being tariffs. Of course, that money has not been distributed yet, and the current $5,000 looks like a joke.

With an estimated 240 million adult American citizens, the total expenditure for $5,000 each would be $1.2 trillion. Previously, giving approximately 1.45 million military personnel $1,776 only required about $2.6 billion in total. This time, the scale is more than four hundred times larger, creating entirely different financial pressure.

Furthermore, this money needs to be approved by Congress. Even if the Republicans retain both chambers, they will need to secure enough support from lawmakers. If it meets the conditions for budget reconciliation, it can indeed be pushed through the Senate with a simple majority, but given the current U.S. fiscal deficit, who would approve this money?

The U.S. fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2025 has already reached about $1.78 trillion. If another $1.2 trillion in spending is added without corresponding increases in revenue or cuts in other expenditures, it will require increasing debt.

Even if Trump claims to pay with tariff revenues, you cannot use the same revenue to both reduce the deficit and fully distribute subsidies. Tariff revenue does not imply that the budget has discretionary surpluses to allocate freely. Not to mention, the current tariffs are still highly uncertain.

Therefore, from my perspective, this $5,000 is even more of a joke than the previous $2,000.

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