The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September has risen close to 95% again.

From now on, the market has already anticipated that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September. In simple terms, the rate increase itself in September will not have a significant impact on the market because more investors already believe that the rate hike is inevitable.

Of course, some friends are still asking me if I still think there won't be a rate hike, and my opinion is not important. After all, my view does not equal that of the Federal Reserve, and indeed I am one of those 5% who think differently, but I also feel that this time I might be genuinely wrong.

However, this does not affect the key point of how the market speculates, so personally, I believe that based on the current judgment, if the Federal Reserve only raises rates once, but the dot plot is quite restrained, and if Waller’s subsequent remarks are not too hawkish, the market is unlikely to be too tense.

But what I am more concerned about is that even if the Federal Reserve raises rates in September, if the dot plot still indicates that there will be two rate hikes this year, and if Waller expresses concerns about current inflation, combined with Japan's rate hike on Friday, the market might indeed feel some discomfort.

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