Yesterday, Bitcoin once fell to around $76,300 in the early session, then rebounded again, reaching as high as around $79,500 in the evening.
Previously, I had been emphasizing that the $76,600—$75,500 range is an important support area. As long as this level is not effectively broken, the overall strategy can still maintain "mainly bullish with a slight bearish bias." Yesterday, the price rebounded from around $76,300 and eventually broke through the previous consolidation platform, further validating the effectiveness of this support area.
However, after the rebound reached $79,500, a significant drop began to appear.
From the hourly perspective, $79,100 is the first key level to focus on. This position corresponds to the previous Fibonacci 0.5 level and is also an important target area during the previous rebound process. Although the price briefly surged to $79,500 yesterday, it did not stabilize at higher levels.
Especially after 2 AM, the price showed a series of bullish candles, further climbing until 4 AM, but ultimately closed lower than the previous peak. After 5 AM, there was a continuous drop, with hourly lows gradually moving downwards.
This indicates that what initially appeared as a simple upward shadow candle has gradually evolved into a sustained downward movement.
Therefore, in the short term, the current market should be understood as bearish within a consolidation. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solution ideas, and market practical insights, scan to follow our public account《Shining Star Planet》,join the community for strategies!
Hourly trend weakens, pay attention to 77,400 below
The price has now fallen below the short-term support near $78,000, and the next key level to observe is $77,400.
$77,400 was previously an important position in the weekend consolidation platform. If this position continues to be lost, further attention should be paid to around $77,000.
This means that the current situation is not about directly judging a unilateral decline, but rather watching whether the price can regain support at different support levels.
If after the drop, it can stabilize and rise again near $77,900 or $77,400, then the upward structure from yesterday can still retain some validity.
Conversely, if $77,400 is effectively broken, the short-term structure will clearly weaken. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solution ideas, and market practical insights, scan to follow our public account《Shining Star Planet》,join the community for strategies!
4-hour still has repair foundation, $78,400 is the key breakout level
From the 4-hour perspective, the situation is not as weak as the hourly trend.
Bitcoin had previously rebounded from around $76,100, reaching a high of $82,200. Although it continued to fall afterward, there were still rebound highs of $80,500 and $79,700 during the process.
It can be observed that although the previous highs have been constantly moving down, the price has never completely fallen back to the starting point of the significant rise.
Yesterday, after rebounding from around $76,300, the 4-hour structure still retains the repair basis after the breakout from the platform.
Therefore, the 4-hour is currently more suitable to define as: weak retracement after an upward push, rather than a complete trend reversal.
The most critical positions ahead are $78,400—$78,500.
If the price can rebound after retesting $77,400 and eventually break and stabilize above $78,500, then yesterday's rise will have the opportunity to continue.
However, if $77,400 is lost again, the price will return to the weekend consolidation area, then the significance of the previous breakout will be clearly weakened. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solution ideas, and market practical insights, scan to follow our public account《Shining Star Planet》,join the community for strategies!
Daily rebound exists, but intensity is still insufficient
From a daily viewpoint, the rise since July has not been completely destroyed.
Starting from around $57,000, Bitcoin gradually rose, accelerating significantly after August 17, and then entering a high-level consolidation phase.
In September, although the price experienced multiple surges and drops, even briefly touching around $82,200, it still has not completely fallen below the previous high consolidation range.
Yesterday, the daily line reclosed as a bullish candle and formed a relatively clear bullish engulfing pattern.
However, it should be noted that this bullish candle mainly covers the declines of the previous few days and does not completely recover the larger bearish candle from September 10.
Therefore, although there is a rebound in the daily line now, it cannot yet be defined as a strong reversal.
A more accurate understanding is: the range repair after a large fluctuation is still ongoing. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solution ideas, and market practical insights, scan to follow our public account《Shining Star Planet》,join the community for strategies!
$78,400 pressure and $77,900 support become key
From the moving average system, the 5-day and 7-day moving averages have returned, while the 20-day moving average is currently around $78,400.
This position overlaps with multiple technical indicators, making $78,400—$78,500 a very important resistance area currently.
Below, pay particular attention to $77,900.
Both the 4-hour and daily BBA are currently focused around $77,900, while $77,400 is an important support area further down.
Thus, today can be simply summarized into three key positions:
Above: $78,400—$78,500 resistance.
Mid: $77,900 key position for bulls and bears.
Below: $77,400 important support.
If it can stabilize above $78,400 again, the short-term bearish judgment needs to be reversed; if it continues to face resistance, then treat it as a consolidation decline. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solution ideas, and market practical insights, scan to follow our public account《Shining Star Planet》,join the community for strategies!
Position changes show that upward momentum is weakening
From the position data, during the early rebound yesterday, there was indeed an increase in positions, indicating that the rise at that time was not merely a price increase.
However, as the price hit $79,500, the position did not continue to expand, and instead began to decline.
This indicates that although the price surged again, there was not enough strong position support at the high level.
This is one of the important reasons why I am currently reluctant to continue to look bullish.
What needs to be observed now is not whether "$79,500 is a new breakout starting point," but rather whether the price can stabilize above key support after rising.
If the price falls and positions continue to decline, the short-term upward momentum will be affected.
MACD: Short-term weakens, but the larger cycle has not fully turned bearish
The hourly MACD previously formed a golden cross, followed by a price rebound, showing that the rise at the time had certain momentum.
However, after midnight, a death cross appeared, accompanied by some volume release, marking a clear weakening of short-term momentum on the hourly chart.
The golden cross on the 4-hour chart still remains, thus yesterday’s rebound has not been completely negated; only the pace of the rise has begun to slow down.
On the daily line, it is currently still in a death cross state, but momentum is gradually contracting.
This indicates that while there is downward pressure on the daily line, a sufficiently strong one-sided downward signal has not yet formed.
Therefore, analyzing across multiple periods:
Hourly weakens; 4-hour upward momentum slows down; daily still in repair; weekly maintains the large cycle rebound basis.
This is also why it is currently more appropriate to define it as "consolidation decline after a surge," rather than directly judging the end of a bullish market.
After the Federal Reserve decision, more attention is needed on the speech content
On the macro front, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes are now very high.
Therefore, what truly needs attention is not just the interest rate decision itself, but rather the policy signals released in subsequent speeches.
Key focuses are two aspects:
First, is the overall language more hawkish or dovish?
Second, and importantly—whether this rate hike is interpreted by the market as a one-time policy action, or if there is a possibility of continuous rate hikes and further tightening in the future.
If the market has fully digested the expectation of a single rate hike, then there may be an emotional repair of "bad news being fully priced in" after the announcement.
However, if the speech signals the continuation of rate hikes or more aggressive measures, the pressure on risk assets will significantly increase.
Therefore, how this event ultimately influences the market still needs to be judged in conjunction with the speech content.
Current strategy: Watch for consolidation decline, do not rush to define trend reversal
Considering candlestick patterns, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, MACD, positions, and multi-timeframe structures, the current short-term outlook is indeed bearish.
After surging to $79,500 in the early morning, there was not enough upward space left, followed by a continuous drop, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is weakening.
Therefore, if a rebound occurs subsequently, I believe that the rebound force will not be too strong temporarily. First, we must observe whether $78,400—$78,500 can be broken through again.
Below, closely watch $77,900 and $77,400.
If $77,900 can hold, and the price breaks through $78,400 again, then the short-term structure will strengthen.
If $77,400 is lost, further observation of lower support will be needed.
But before $75,500 is effectively broken, there is not enough evidence to prove that the upward trend since July has ended.
Thus, the most reasonable approach remains:
Short-term bearish within consolidation, waiting for pullback confirmation; large cycles have not been damaged, do not hastily define a trend reversal due to a single surge and drop.
Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, solution ideas, and market practical insights, scan to follow our public account《Shining Star Planet》,join the community for strategies!
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