Bitcoin experienced significant fluctuations yesterday, briefly breaking through the high of 79,570 in the short-term market. Many friends are worried whether the market will reverse. This is mainly because Old Cui received too many messages this morning, coinciding with the rise of the US ten-year Treasury yield to 5%, the highest in nearly three years; this also led to many friends starting to question whether there will be more interest rate hikes? The increase in Treasury yield and the potential for rate hikes will certainly lead to more debt repayment, which is also a concern for everyone, always worrying about the US debt repayment issue. Have you seen any companies or enterprises making money faster than the US? The profits they repay are almost on par with the US military spending, and with the support from South Korea and Japan behind them, repayment is not the biggest problem for the US. The bigger issue is that as debt continues to accumulate, no one wants to take over, which is what leads to higher interest rates. The increase in interest rates is also intended to make outside investors willing to take over, and this is a complete logic.

When it comes to interest rate hikes, you just need to remember the following benefits: dollar appreciation, reduced inflation, capital repatriation, and suppression of global trade. Each item listed is more beneficial to the US than rate cuts or keeping rates unchanged, and among them, suppressing the income of exporting nations is also a major reason. Don't just focus on Trump's few words to make your investment plans; Trump's cabinet and the Federal Reserve are two separate entities, while Waller's statements still emphasize a 2% inflation target. Interest rate hikes have almost become a fact, and the only certainty lies in the timeline. Many people think that we are currently in the early stages of a bull market? Old Cui has no idea how this view was formed. Currently, most people I see in the market support interest rate hikes (the Federal Reserve sending signals externally), especially considering the performance yesterday and today, with ten-year US debt surpassing a 5% yield, which will further lead to capital re-planning investment directions, because the yield on Treasury bonds is very likely to exceed that of US stocks, making this market more stable.

If these giants withdraw from the stock market and choose US Treasury bonds, combined with the arrival of interest rate hikes (not discussing the cyclicality of rate hikes), it will almost form a fatal blow to the stock market and the cryptocurrency market. Look back at the data from Nasdaq over the past two years; the market capitalization growth of the top ten technology stocks in the US has even seen some traditional stocks breaking through. Why does everyone think this is the early stage of a bull market? Is it possible that this is just the final celebration of the bull market? However, the cryptocurrency market bears the brunt of the impact even more? While everyone is focusing on positive news in the crypto space, do you still remember that mainstream analysts are almost all predicting the timing of the next financial crisis? If a clear bill is passed during the interest rate hike cycle, then throughout the cycle, the positive news for cryptocurrencies can hardly maintain without a decline, rather than heralding the arrival of a bull market. The issuance of stablecoins has not directly led to a significant breakthrough in cryptocurrency, meaning the impact is not substantial.

Old Cui summarizes: Everyone needs to carefully examine the logical structure of the entire financial market. Many friends feel that Old Cui is not very willing to answer your questions; unless it's a critical moment, many friends will ask Old Cui to take a look at high-risk trades, and perhaps I will respond in a timely manner. Generally, for issues with significant loopholes in the financial domain, you can ask some AI software; their logic surpasses that of 80% of investors. Just yesterday, I was reminding everyone to take a pause; before going to sleep, many users informed me about their short positions being trapped, some had solved part of their trapped orders, and some even managed to stop losses on their own. Clearly, they did not read my articles carefully. If you do not have the concept of medium-term investment, do not engage in contracts at this stage; such market conditions often arise within a week of the interest rate announcement. Regardless of whether the result is bullish or bearish, there will be spikes to clean out retail investors. Those who only trade short-term should remember not to enter the market, and those who cannot control their mindset should not try lightly. Wait until after this interest rate announcement to plan further. At the end of the article, Old Cui remains bearish; such short-term breakouts, I will only consider adding to my short positions! While paying attention to the interest rate meeting, also look at the fluctuations in US Treasury yields, which are equally relevant!

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