The market has been waiting for nearly two weeks for the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, which officially starts today.

From September 15 to 16, the Federal Reserve will hold the most anticipated FOMC meeting of the year. Over the past week, market expectations for a 25 basis points rate hike have rapidly increased, with rate futures on September 14 showing a nearly 95% probability of a rate hike; in a Reuters survey, 85% of economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates to 3.75%-4.00% this time.

That is to say:

"Whether to raise rates" is no longer the biggest suspense.

What the market is really waiting for is where the Federal Reserve intends to raise rates to next, and how long high rates will continue.

Currently, BTC is in a relatively sensitive position—around $77,000.

First, a Summary

• FOMC will convene from September 15 to 16, with the market highly pricing in a 25bp rate hike
• On September 14, the implied probability of a rate hike in the market was nearly 95%
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5%, reaching a nearly three-year high
• High oil prices and inflation pressures continue to limit the Federal Reserve's shift towards easing
• Recently, BTC has mainly oscillated around $77,000
• The decision itself may have already been partially priced in; what truly affects the market are the dot plot, inflation assessment, and the Chair's statements

A Rate Hike is No Longer the Biggest Variable

Over the past month, market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy have changed significantly.

Previously, investors bet more on the Federal Reserve maintaining rates, but as inflation data rose again, crude oil prices broke above $100, and U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, the market began to re-trade "further rate hikes."

On September 14, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to 4.9915% before falling back to about 4.95%; that same day, market rate futures pricing for a rate hike this week reached 95% at one point.

This means that if the Federal Reserve does indeed raise rates by 25bp, the market is unlikely to experience the kind of simple "shock" that occurred before.

Because:

Expectations have already moved ahead of the decision.

Rather, if the Federal Reserve signals a more hawkish stance than the market expects, it could trigger another adjustment in risk assets.

Oil Prices are Increasing Policy Difficulty

One of the biggest differences with this meeting compared to past ones is that the inflation environment the Federal Reserve faces is more complex.

Recently, crude oil prices have remained high, with some market data showing that WTI and Brent crude have surpassed $100 per barrel.

At the same time, the U.S. August CPI rose year-on-year to 3.4%, clearly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

This has created a rather tricky combination:

Rising oil prices → Increased inflation pressure → Reduced room for rate cuts → Rates maintained at high levels → Rising Treasury yields → Pressure on risk asset valuations.

As a highly volatile risk asset, BTC finds it hard to completely detach from this macro transmission chain.

Previously, BTC fell from around $82,000 to the $77,000 range, which corresponded with the rise of Treasury yields and the heating up of rate hike expectations.

The Real Test: The Dot Plot

If a 25bp rate hike is fully expected by the market, then what is truly worth watching is the dot plot.

The dot plot reflects the FOMC officials' views on the future path of interest rates.

Currently, the market is most concerned with two questions:

Will there be further rate hikes this year?

And:

Will the central rate in 2027 shift higher?

If the dot plot indicates that high rates need to be maintained for a longer time, then even if today's hike is just 25bp, the market may once again revise its future interest rate expectations upwards.

Conversely, if the Federal Reserve does raise rates but the dot plot suggests this might be a one-time action, or even retains room for future rate cuts, risk assets could experience a "bad news priced in" situation instead.

Therefore, for BTC:

A 25bp rate hike may not necessarily be the biggest negative impact; rather, a hawkish future guidance could be.

$77,000 is Becoming a Short-term Watershed

Currently, what is most worth observing for BTC is still the support area around $77,000.

If the FOMC decision aligns with market expectations, while Powell does not further reinforce hawkish signals, suppressed risk appetite may begin to recover, providing BTC with the opportunity to retest the $79,000—$80,000 range.

However, if the dot plot is clearly hawkish, or if the Federal Reserve emphasizes that high inflation and oil prices may lead rates to remain elevated, then once $77,000 is breached, leveraged funds may once again become a source of amplified volatility.

Previously, BTC has already undergone a notable macro-driven correction, and the market is not short of short-term leverage.

Therefore, what needs to be observed next is not just the price, but also:

The open interest, funding rates, and the scale of long and short liquidations.

What the Market is Really Waiting for is Not "Whether to Raise" but "How Long to Raise"

This FOMC meeting may become a watershed moment for the September market.

If the market has been trading on "Will the Federal Reserve raise rates?" in recent weeks, then this question is getting closer to an answer now.

The real question has become: After the rate hike, how long does the Federal Reserve plan to maintain the interest rate?

For BTC, this determines the liquidity environment, not just a one-time 25bp policy change.

Thus, tonight to tomorrow, what the market should focus on is not a single news piece, but three sets of data:

FOMC rate decision, latest dot plot, Powell's press conference.

If all three release hawkish messages, $77,000 may face further testing.

If the rate hike is confirmed but the future path does not continue to tighten, a typical **"bad news priced in" scenario** may occur instead.

Therefore, the real test in this FOMC is not about the 25 basis points, but whether the Federal Reserve will communicate to the market: how long high rates will continue.

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