Call Iran daddy!

To be honest, shorting oil has really made me a bit anxious lately.

I'm not anxious about the rising price of oil; my margin is all set to $120, and even if $120 is not enough, going up to $150 is no problem, so my anxiety has never been about the direction.

What makes me anxious this time is primarily Trump's and America's attitude. My view has always been that high oil prices will push the U.S. into high inflation, and high inflation will force the Federal Reserve into a rate-hiking process, and the impact of rate hikes on the U.S. economy and risk markets goes without saying.

Secondly, it’s the global attitude towards Iran. The blockade of Hormuz not only brings about the rise in U.S. oil prices but also the rise in global oil prices and inflation. Even in China, where the strategic oil reserves have already skyrocketed, prices are still rising due to the blockade of Iranian ports.

Now, instead, the whole world is being constrained by Iran. The so-called number one military power, the U.S., has not been able to subdue Iran, and even China, the second-largest economy in the world, is helpless because of Hormuz.

What makes me most anxious is actually this.

If oil prices just rise to $100, $110, or even $120, it only represents a paper loss for my position; as long as the margin is sufficient, I can continue to wait.

But if the U.S., Europe, China, and Gulf countries cannot change the current state of Hormuz in a short period of time, then what the market is trading is no longer just a short-term war shock, but a global energy trade system forced to accept a Hormuz that is long-term under Iranian control.

This is the most ridiculous part.

Just one Iran can put the global economy in a passive position.

It doesn’t even require advanced weapons, certainly no aircraft carriers, and does not need to actually control the entire Indian Ocean.

As long as there are small boats, drones, and missiles, combined with Hormuz’s geographical position, it’s enough to make large commercial ships and oil tankers hesitant to navigate normally.

And as long as Hormuz cannot be navigated normally, the impact will not only be on Iran's oil itself but also on the massive energy exports of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE.

The most important energy route in the world has been blocked by one country.

The U.S. talks about maintaining freedom of navigation daily, China needs to import a large amount of crude oil every day, Europe and Asia are bearing higher energy costs, and Gulf countries can’t export their own oil.

As a result, everyone watches as Iran uses Hormuz as a bargaining chip.

So what is the world still struggling for?

From now on, let’s call Iran daddy.

@Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, one-stop trading for prediction markets

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