Last week, after the United States released a new round of CPI data, Bitcoin experienced a notable up-and-down price action, quickly dropping to around 76,000, and then surging to around 79,800, but the high did not hold effectively.
From a purely technical standpoint, Bitcoin is currently still in a neutral to bearish state in the short term.
However, it is important to note that although the short-term technicals are bearish, market sentiment has not completely turned bearish. The reason is that after a significant rise in mid to late August, the price has consistently not effectively broken below the important support zone of 76,600—75,500.
Thus, a more accurate judgment at present is:
Technical indicators are bearish, but sentiment remains bullish.
As long as the support zone of 76,600—75,500 is not effectively broken, it cannot be directly defined as a medium to long-term trend reversal.
1. Hourly Chart: Retracement Hits Resistance, Bears Regain Advantage
From the hourly chart, after obtaining support near 76,400 yesterday, the price rebounded, reaching around 77,400—77,500.
The previous take-profit point was near 77,500, but the price never truly broke through and stabilized above it.
The market then declined again and revisited around 76,400 this morning.
The most noteworthy point here is the resistance near 77,500.
The price rebounded from lower levels to return to the previous narrow consolidation area, but faced resistance again near 77,500, leading to a drop back below the consolidation range.
This indicates that the market is capable of rebounding, but the rebound cannot continue to push upward.
Therefore, the current structure of the hourly chart can be summarized as:
There is a counterattack from lower levels, but the rebound is limited, and bears remain dominant.
However, the current bearish advantage has not evolved into a continuous rapid decline, so it is still closer to a weak consolidation rather than a one-sided plummet. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnostics, recovery ideas, and market practical insights, scan the code to follow the public account《Bright Star Planet》，Join the community for strategies！
2. 4-hour Chart: Highs Continue to Decline, Weak Consolidation Characteristics Are Obvious
From the 4-hour perspective, on September 2, the price rebounded near 76,100 and then peaked around 82,200.
Starting from 82,200, the market gradually turned to a decline.
Although there have been multiple rebounds during this period, the high points of each rebound have not re-broken the previous highs, showing a gradual decline in high points.
On the day the CPI was released, the price quickly broke upward and also had a downward spike, but ultimately neither side formed an effective breakout.
Recent performance has been even more pronounced.
After the price rebounded to around 77,500, it fell again, breaking back below the short-term consolidation range, indicating that the previous upward correction has not been sustained.
Therefore, the current 4-hour level is more appropriately defined as:
A weak consolidation after a rise, with a short-term direction leaning bearish. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnostics, recovery ideas, and market practical insights, scan the code to follow the public account《Bright Star Planet》，Join the community for strategies！
3. Daily Chart: Bearish, but Has Not Destroyed the Major Upward Structure
The daily chart differs from the hourly and 4-hour charts.
Starting from the low point of the rise in mid to late August, even though the price has shown a distinct decline now, it has not broken below the key support in the entire upward structure.
Especially the 76,600—75,500 area, which has still not been effectively broken.
Therefore, although the daily line has shown some degree of weakness, it cannot yet be considered that this round of upward movement has failed.
Recently, several days of closing prices have been down, and there have been counterattacks, but the counterattacks have not continued further, ultimately closing again in the red.
This implies:
The daily short-term does lean bearish, but it currently resembles a consolidation and digestion after a rise, rather than a medium to long-term trend having turned bearish.
In other words, the current decline is still happening within the previous upward structure. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnostics, recovery ideas, and market practical insights, scan the code to follow the public account《Bright Star Planet》，Join the community for strategies！
4. Weekly Chart: The Decline After the Rise Has Not Changed the Recovery Structure
The weekly chart requires a longer viewpoint.
After the significant bullish candle on August 17, although the price has not continued to break upward quickly, the previous substantial upward structure remains intact.
In the past week, the price fell from around 80,300 to around 76,100, finally closing near 76,800.
From the perspective of the weekly chart, this is indeed the weakest closing since the significant bullish candle of August 17.
However, it has still not completely dropped below the core upward area of that bullish candle.
If we further extend the time frame, from the historical high of around 126,000, the price has descended to around 57,000, then rebounded back to around 82,800, showing that this round of upward movement essentially still belongs to the recovery after the previous major downtrend.
Thus, the weekly chart currently cannot simply be defined as having a trend shift to bearish.
The large cycle is still in a recovery structure, while the short cycle is clearly weak. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnostics, recovery ideas, and market practical insights, scan the code to follow the public account《Bright Star Planet》，Join the community for strategies！
5. Moving Average System: Short-term Pressure Resurfaces
From the BBA and MA moving average systems, the short-term weakness is more evident.
The price once again breached the BBA on the hourly line, but quickly dropped below it again, and the subsequent K lines never stabilized above it.
The same is true at the 4-hour level.
The price briefly broke through the average price but quickly fell back, currently running below the BBA and the composite average price.
On the daily line, after the price broke below the BBA on September 8, it has not effectively recovered again.
Meanwhile, the 5-day, 7-day, and 20-day moving averages are gradually forming upper resistance.
The short-term focus now needs to be on the 76,900—77,400 pressure area.
If the price cannot break through and stabilize in this area, then the rebound can still only be understood as a weak repair. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnostics, recovery ideas, and market practical insights, scan the code to follow the public account《Bright Star Planet》，Join the community for strategies！
6. Open Interest: The Continuity of the Rebound Is Still Inadequate
From the perspective of open interest, after the CPI was released, the price first dropped to around 76,000, then quickly surged to around 79,800.
But during this process, open interest did not form stable expansion; instead, it showed a continuous decline.
This means that although the price once genuinely pushed to around 79,800, there was not sufficient open interest support at the high level.
The price then fell back again.
This is also why we cannot judge that the market is about to re-enter an upward trend just because of a short-term rebound.
Recently, when the price declined again, open interest increased, which is something to continue monitoring.
Currently, the signals given by open interest tend more towards:
Be cautious about the continuity of the rebound, rather than simply understanding that changes in open interest necessarily correspond to unilateral declines. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnostics, recovery ideas, and market practical insights, scan the code to follow the public account《Bright Star Planet》，Join the community for strategies！
7. Bollinger Bands: Price Returns to Weak Zone
On the hourly chart, after the price broke below the lower Bollinger band, a correction occurred, but the rebound did not break through the upper band, and then returned below the middle band again.
The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are in a clearly contracting state.
Currently, the middle band is approximately at 77,100, and the price is running beneath it, causing the middle band to start forming short-term pressure.
The daily chart warrants more attention.
The current daily price is still below the middle Bollinger band, with pressure near the middle band at around 78,300.
If the price continues to break downwards from the current support area, the opening of the Bollinger Bands may further widen downwards.
Therefore, 78,300 is an important observation point for whether the subsequent rebound can regain strength.
8. MACD: The Speed of Decline Has Slowed, but Upward Momentum Is Insufficient
The hourly MACD has recreated a death cross, indicating that short-term momentum has weakened again.
The 4-hour MACD still maintains a golden cross, but this golden cross is below the 0 axis and has not yet led to sustained price increases.
The daily MACD is also in a weak state, but the recent volume bars have contracted, indicating that the speed of decline has begun to slow.
The weekly chart still maintains a golden cross, suggesting that the upward momentum of the larger cycle has not completely disappeared.
Thus, the core signal given by the MACD currently is not "the market will fall sharply soon," but rather:
A short-term weak consolidation followed by a further decline, but the speed of decline has temporarily slowed.
If the price can return above around 77,400 and the hourly MACD regenerates a golden cross and breaks through the 0 axis, then a clearer signal of strength might emerge in the short-term. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnostics, recovery ideas, and market practical insights, scan the code to follow the public account《Bright Star Planet》，Join the community for strategies！
9. Key Support Remains at 76,600—75,500
From the perspective of the Fibonacci structure, the retracement from 82,800 to 76,000 is currently facing resistance near 77,500.
The first support to watch below is around 76,600.
If it further falls below, then we need to watch around 75,500.
Thus, the core of the entire market is actually very clear:
Look above to see if 77,400—77,500 can be regained, and look below to see if 76,600—75,500 can hold strong.
If 77,400 cannot be effectively broken, the short-term rebound space remains limited.
If the support zone of 76,600—75,500 is effectively broken, then the market structure will further develop towards a bearish direction.
10. Current Conclusion: Rebound Limited, Continue Testing Support
Considering the hourly line, 4-hour, daily, weekly, and moving averages, open interest, Bollinger Bands, MACD, and Fibonacci, the most reasonable judgment remains:
Bitcoin is in a short-term bearish consolidation.
The term "bearish" here does not mean the market will definitely fall quickly, but rather that each rebound currently faces notable pressure, and the probability of falling back after each rebound is relatively higher.
Therefore, the next focus should not be whether every small cycle rebound signifies the "beginning of a big rally," but rather:
Can the price stabilize around 77,000, and can 77,400—77,500 be regained?
Below, the focus should be on the 76,600—75,500 support zone.
As long as this support area is not effectively broken, from a larger cycle perspective, the upward recovery structure formed from July to August still exists, and market sentiment can still maintain a degree of bullishness.
But until the short-term technical structure regains strength, caution is still needed regarding the rebound.
The most accurate summary currently is:
The large cycle upward structure has not been damaged, the short cycle technicals are bearish; rebounds are limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate around 77,000 while testing lower support again.
Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free provision of position diagnostics, recovery ideas, and market practical insights, scan the code to follow the public account《Bright Star Planet》，Join the community for strategies！
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