Today marks the critical stage of the weekly K-line closing. Weekend liquidity remains relatively low; normally, the Asian market will not have significant fluctuations. However, as the new week with important events approaches, the market has entered the high sensitivity and high volatility expectation phase.

Yesterday afternoon, there was another short squeeze rise, but the price ultimately returned to near the support zone, indicating that although the bulls still have retaliatory capabilities, they have not temporarily formed a real trend breakthrough.

The market's focus has now shifted from simple technical analysis to macro event-driven factors.

First, there is the procedural vote related to the CLARITY Act on September 15, followed by the most important FOMC meeting of the week on September 16. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East has not significantly eased, and high oil prices continue to strengthen market concerns about persistent inflation.

Therefore, what truly needs to be guarded against this week is the expectation gap: regardless of whether the final result leans hawkish or dovish, as long as there is a significant difference from the market's prior pricing, it may instantly amplify fluctuations, triggering short squeezes, bull traps, or even mutual destruction of both bulls and bears.

During the weekly K-line closing phase, it is not advisable to chase highs or sell lows; it is better to wait for clear support or breakout signals at critical positions, which will provide a higher cost-performance ratio.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Opinion: Mainly bearish, watch for opportunities to buy on sharp declines.

BTC is currently still at the lower part of a large box pattern. Short-term momentum has weakened somewhat, but a trend breakthrough has not yet occurred.

Market sentiment is also gradually cooling, with the fear and greed index retreating from a previously overheated state to a neutral range, indicating that the willingness to chase highs has declined.

However, institutions and spot funds are still providing some support, which is why recent declines have not smoothly accelerated in the bearish direction.

Currently, two core positions need to be focused on:

76400 — Lower boundary defense line of the box pattern.
If there is a quick dip to this area followed by a rapid recovery, one can continue to look for short-term buying opportunities; once there is an effective breakdown of this level, the original oscillation structure will need to be reassessed.

81300 — True breakout test level above.
Until there is a substantial volume to stabilize above this level, rebounds should prioritize handling according to box pattern repair.

During the day, closely monitor the pressure zone of 78500—80000; if the upward movement lacks sufficient volume, another drop may need to be guarded against.

Support: 76400, 77000
Resistance: 78500-79000, 80000

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

Opinion: Relatively strong, but mainly bearish; opportunities to buy on sharp declines.

ETH has recently shown a relatively independent performance over the last two days, with the core driving factor being the continued rise in the ETH/BTC exchange rate.

However, there is also a risk here:

The rise in the exchange rate can amplify ETH's gains; if the exchange rate quickly retraces, it will similarly enlarge ETH's losses.

Therefore, the more it shows a short-term independent strength, the more attention needs to be paid to exchange rate changes.

From a technical perspective, ETH is still trading above the 20-day EMA, and the medium-term bullish structure has not shown obvious damage; the RSI is around 63.6 and has not entered the extreme overbought area, thus theoretically still retaining space to continue testing pressure upward.

Nevertheless, with major events like the FOMC approaching, the cost-performance ratio of chasing highs from the current position has already diminished.

If there is a push to the 2550—2610 range followed by stagnation, it is more suitable to focus on high-level resistance; if there is a sudden volume increase to retest 2500 or even 2450—2460 with rapid support appearing, then one can look for short-term buying opportunities again.

Support: 2500-2510, 2450-2460
Resistance: 2550, 2580, 2610, 2660
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This article is published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents only personal views. Due to some delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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