Introduction: The market yesterday only spoke about one thing - a shift in expectations

On September 14, the signals from the market were much clearer than in previous days.

Goldman Sachs changed its stance. This investment bank, which had previously insisted that "the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates," clearly stated yesterday: the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the September policy meeting. What’s more intriguing is their candor about the reasoning - this adjustment is "more driven by financial market pricing than by economic outlook."

In translation: It’s not that the economic fundamentals changed, but that market prices moved first, leading institutions to change their positions.

Following this, data from the CME showed that the market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September had reached as high as 90%; JPMorgan and Nomura also voiced their opinions, believing that the Fed would raise rates twice in September and December.

Against this backdrop of a sudden shift in macro expectations, the three targets we are closely tracking - ETH, SanDisk, and SK Hynix - weakened collectively yesterday: ETH broke below the 2489 support level, while SanDisk and SK Hynix also faced downward pressure simultaneously.

We will focus on one thing: clearly explain the logic behind the shift in expectations, the technical structure of the three targets, and key price levels. As for how to operate, the initiative is always in your hands.

1. Market Overview: ETH breaks down, storage chips face pressure

First, let's look at yesterday's market atmosphere.

Yesterday, ETH once again tested downward, directly breaking below the 2489 support level. The loss of this position means that the previously strong structure has been broken, and the price has returned to a large range of oscillation.

At the same time, SanDisk and SK Hynix also faced downward pressure. After experiencing previous strength, the short-term momentum in the storage chip sector has significantly weakened, showing signals of deep price adjustment. This coincides with the weakness in crypto assets creating a coherent resonance.

Overall, the market yesterday showed a pattern of "ETH breaking down, storage chips under pressure, and risk assets adjusting collectively". Unlike the previous days' stalemate of "indices weakening, chips under pressure, ETH remaining static", yesterday's market provided a clearer 'downward choice' inclination.

There is an important observation point here: the synchronized weakening of ETH and storage chips is not coincidental. They share the same macro pricing logic - when risk-free interest rate expectations rise, the pricing denominator for all risk assets increases, making valuation recovery more difficult. This kind of "cross-market resonance" is usually more valuable than the technical signals of a single target.

In brief: When macro expectations shift, the technical support is often weaker than one might imagine.

2. Fundamentals: Sudden warming of rate hike expectations puts pressure on the market

The most significant change yesterday came from the directional reversal of market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

1. Goldman Sachs changes its stance: from "holding steady" to "raise rates by 25 basis points"

Goldman Sachs' previous judgment was that the Fed would maintain interest rates in September. Yesterday, it clearly changed its stance: the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at the September policy meeting.

The key point lies in Goldman Sachs' own explanation - this adjustment is "more driven by financial market pricing than by economic outlook."

This statement carries significant weight. It admits two things:

• First, there has been no substantial change in fundamentals supporting a rate hike;

• Second, market pricing has already run ahead, and institutions have been "forced" to modify their forecasts by market prices.

In other words, this is a shift driven by expectations and emotions, rather than by data.

2. Mutual Resonance: 90% Probability and "Two Rate Hikes"

Goldman Sachs' statement is not an isolated case; a consensus rapidly formed among multiple voices:

• CME data: market expectations for a 25 basis points rate hike in September reached 90%;

• JPMorgan: believes the Fed will raise rates twice in September and December;

• Nomura: also gives judgments of rate hikes in September and December.

When one institution changes its stance, it is a "view"; when market pricing and predictions from major banks form a collective force, it becomes a "consensus". What the market fears most is not the bad news itself, but rather the concentrated adjustment of expectations during the consensus formation process.

3. Market Reaction: Taking Countermeasures in Advance

In this context, the market took countermeasures in advance, putting pressure on the market to decline.

The word "advance" is crucial here - the real selling pressure often does not occur at the moment interest rates are raised but during the process of expectation formation. Because capital always trades on expectations, by the time the policy is truly implemented, it may already be "bad news factored in."

Thus, the collective weakness of ETH and storage chips yesterday fundamentally represents the market pricing in an anticipated rate hike that has not yet occurred.

The logical chain is actually quite clear: Institution changes stance → Rate hike probability skyrockets → Risk-free rate uptrend expectation strengthens → Risk appetite decreases → Crypto and tech stocks face synchronized pressure.

This also explains why ETH and storage chips weakened collectively yesterday - it's not that there was a problem with a single asset, but rather that the denominator for pricing all risk assets is changing.

This also reminds us again: No matter how beautiful the technical shape, it cannot withstand a sudden shift in macro expectations.

3. Technical Analysis: Operating Thoughts on Three Major Targets

⚠️ The following technical points are for analysis reference only, representing a personal observation perspective and do not constitute purchase or sale advice. Please make independent decisions based on your risk tolerance.

1. ETH: Breaking down support, returning to large range oscillation, short-term wait and see

ETH broke below the 2489 support level yesterday, and has returned to the large range oscillation trend in the short term.

Current main adjustment range: 2434 — 2534 — 2608 (lower edge / center / upper edge)

• Structural judgment: Short-term direction is unclear, bullish and bearish forces have returned to a balanced tug-of-war state, and a trend has yet to form.

• Operating inclination: temporarily wait and see, awaiting further signals within the range, without presuming the direction ahead of time.

• Operational references for different styles (non-investment advice):

  Stable traders - wait for signals, reduce noise

  When the direction is not clear, the worst thing is to keep getting battered back and forth during oscillation. Since the breakdown has occurred, the short-term trend is weak, but the price has returned to a large range, at this moment rushing to short and catch a bottom both carry the risk of being repeatedly stopped out. It is advised to wait patiently:

  • If the price effectively rises above 2534 and holds, reevaluate bullish opportunities;

  • If the price effectively breaks below 2434, then consider a bearish trend;

  • Before a signal is confirmed, being in cash is also a position.

  Aggressive traders - buy high and sell low within the range, strictly adhere to discipline

  If you pursue short-term elasticity, you can do high selling and low buying within the 2434—2608 large range:

  • If a stability signal appears near 2434, you can lightly enter long and target 2534;

  • If facing resistance near 2534—2608, consider reducing positions or reversing;

  • Be sure to set stop losses, once the range is effectively broken, immediately stop losses and exit, do not hold onto the position.

  After breaking down support, the worst thing is to be "eager to find direction." The price returning to the large range essentially means the market is re-pricing, and at this moment, patience in waiting is more valuable than any premature bet.

  The essence of a fluctuating market is "earning interval profits"; once broken, the original interval strategy must immediately change, and this point is more important than any price level.

  2. SanDisk: Key support lost, waiting for bearish opportunities after rebound

  Following the 4-hour level break below the 1659 key support, the overall trend of SanDisk has shown clear deep adjustment signals.

• Operating reference (non-investment advice):

  • Reference thought: Do not chase shorts, wait for a rebound to the 1651—1659 range for short opportunities;

  • Trigger condition: Price rebounds to 1651—1659 and shows resistance/downward signals;

  • Reference direction: Short;

  • Downward reference target: 1530 major support;

  • Core discipline: Intervene only after the rebound is in place and signals are confirmed, do not rush to chase the order mid-downtrend.

  Different style operational references (non-investment advice):

  • Short-term traders: Wait for price to rebound to the 1651—1659 range and then pick spot to enter shorts, placing stop losses above the rebound high, targeting 1530;

  • Cautious traders: If the rebound is insufficient and directly breaks below 1530, this indicates a stronger adjustment trend, at this point do not chase shorts, continue to wait for the next rebound opportunity.

  The key point is "after the rebound" — directly chasing shorts after a breakdown often means buying at the tail end of emotions; wait for a rebound to provide a better risk-reward ratio before entering for optimal outcomes.

  Assets undergoing deep adjustments fear "catching flying knives"; correct direction but wrong position still leads to losses. Entering near 1659 under pressure versus chasing shorts during the downtrend is two different risks and rewards.

  3. SK Hynix: Approaching channel support, do not chase shorts, wait for signals

  SK Hynix is approaching the 1247 upward channel support level, at a delicate position.

• Today's observation focuses (two scenarios):

  • Scenario one - channel support holds: The market maintains a 4-hour oscillating upward trend. If 1247 support is effective, then the structure is unbroken, and we can continue to track the upward rhythm within the channel;

  • Scenario two - support lost: breaking below 1247, then entering a mid-term bearish adjustment pattern, at which point we will reassess bearish thoughts.

  Operating inclination:

  • Do not chase shorts - with the price near the lower edge of the channel, upward is a continuation of the trend, downward would suggest structural weakness, making the risk-reward of chasing shorts poor;

  • Temporarily await further signal guidance, let the market provide answers first.

  Different styles of operational references (non-investment advice):

  • Stable traders: Wait for clear signals — if the 4-hour upward oscillating trend is confirmed, observe for bullish opportunities; if 1247 is broken and holds below, watch for mid-term bearish possibilities;

  • Aggressive traders: If a clear stability signal appears near 1247, consider a light long position with stop losses set below 1247, while observing upward pressure at 1317; remember to strictly adhere to stop losses, do not cling to the position if it breaks below 1247.

  Chasing shorts near support is a big taboo. When the price is touching the lower edge of the channel, moving up indicates trend continuation, while moving down suggests structural weakness - before a signal comes, waiting is the best strategy.

  To learn more details and specific operations, join us in the live room tonight, where we will analyze the market live and watch the K-line for logic.

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